IMPETUS: Improving Predictions of Drought for User Decision-Making

动力：改进干旱预测以促进用户决策

• 批准号: NE/L01047X/1
• 负责人: Tim Woollings
• 金额: $ 51.91万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL01047X%2F1
• 关键词: IMPETUS; Improving; Predictions; Drought; User

Droughts have severe impacts on societies, economies, agriculture and ecosystems. The 1975-76 UK drought had a devastating effect on the UK economy causing an estimated £3,500M loss to agriculture, £700M of subsidence damage to buildings and a £400M cost to the water industry (present day figures adjusted for inflation). Forward planning is critical for managing the impacts of drought, since early action enables stakeholders, such as public water supply and agricultural companies, to curb demand and to effectively manage diminishing water resources. Improved forecasts on drought management (monthly to seasonal) and planning timescales (seasonal to decadal) would be exceptionally valuable for effective drought management and for minimising the negative impacts of droughts.Droughts are complex events, with impacts dependent on meteorological, hydrological and land surface factors as well as on water demand and management. Consequently, drought forecasting has many components: forecasting meteorological drought (deficit of rainfall), agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit) and hydrological drought (decline in surface water and groundwater), forecasting the consequences of drought for water availability and forecasting the effects of drought management. All of these are uncertain and any improvement in decision-making needs to consider all aspects of the forecast process. IMPETUS focuses on meteorological and hydrological forecasting linked to innovative methods for forecasting local domestic water demand during drought.IMPETUS is an interdisciplinary proposal that brings together scientists from the meteorological, land surface, surface water and groundwater communities and social scientists from the water demand and forecast usability communities. The project involves internationally-leading scientists and social scientist from three NERC Research Centres (NCAS, BGS and CEH), four leading universities (Oxford, Reading, Newcastle, and Southampton), the Met Office and ECMWF. IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of UK drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will lead to the development of improved decision-making processes. This will be achieved by improving meteorological, hydrological and water demand forecasts and how they are combined to produce drought forecasts. This will be done in conjunction with stakeholders to ensure that drought forecasts are relevant for decision making. IMPETUS addresses WP2 (Forecasting Drought) of the UK Droughts and Water Scarcity call.We envisage IMPETUS producing a range of high-impact publications in meteorology, hydrology, hydro-meteorological forecasting, water demand modelling and the usability of drought forecasts. The outcomes from IMPETUS will also benefit a wide range of stakeholders. These include informing the Environment Agency (EA) on the ability of the hydrological models used by EA for water resource management to represent drought, and furthering the understanding that underpins key operational projects, including the Hydrological Outlooks project. IMPETUS outcomes will also benefit the Met Office and ECMWF through an improved understanding of the drivers of meteorological drought and recommendations for improving the representation of drought in operational meteorological forecast systems and climate models. Finally, IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will enable stakeholders to better curb demand and more effectively manage diminishing water resources. In particular, IMPETUS aims to engage stakeholders and assess their needs for drought forecast information, co-producing drought metrics from forecasts to ensure that they support real-world decision-making. Particular examples of this have already been identified through initial discussions with stakeholders including precipitation forecasts for Thames Water and soil moisture forecasts for the agricultural sector.

干旱对1975-76英国对英国的毁灭性影响对社会，农业和生态系统产生影响，估计对农业造成了35亿英镑的损失（当今的数字是针对通货膨胀调整的）。农业公司要遏制需求有效地管理水资源减少（季节性到贫苦）的预测将是异常持久的管理，而干旱的负面影响是复杂的事件。在德鲁托斯期间预测当地的国内水需求的创新方法是一项内部学科的建议，来自气象，地表水和ndwater社区的科学家，以及来自水的需求和预测可用性社区的社会科学家。 ，BGS和CEH），四所领先的大学（牛津，雷丁，纽卡斯尔和南安普敦），大都会办公室和ECMWF。水需求预测以及如何产生干旱预测。在Eteorology的高影响力出版物中，Hydro-MeTEROLOCAL的预测还将受益于广泛的利益相关者。运营项目L Outlooks项目也将使MET办公室受益，而ECMWF则可以改善对流星干旱的驱动因素，以便在运营气象学预测系统和气候模型中对干旱的侵扰。这将使利益持有人能够更好地遏制需求，并更有效地管理水资源，旨在使利益相关者的需求预测信息E支持现实世界中的决策。农业性别。

项目成果

Daily to Decadal Modulation of Jet Variability

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-17-0286.1
• 发表时间: 2017-11
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: T. Woollings;E. Barnes;B. Hoskins;Young‐Oh Kwon;R. Lee;Camille Li;E. Madonna;M. McGraw;Tess Parker;R. Rodrigues;C. Spensberger;K. Williams

Do CMIP5 Models Reproduce Observed Low-Frequency North Atlantic Jet Variability?

• DOI: 10.1029/2018gl078965
• 发表时间: 2018-07-28
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Bracegirdle, Thomas J.;Lu, Hua;Woollings, Tim
• 通讯作者: Woollings, Tim

Enhancing Drought Monitoring and Early Warning for the United Kingdom through Stakeholder Coinquiries

通过利益相关者调查加强英国的干旱监测和预警

• DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-18-0042.1
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Weather, Climate, and Society
• 作者: Hannaford J

Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective

从急流角度看冬季北大西洋涛动的季节可预测性

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084402
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Parker T

The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change

• DOI: 10.1002/2016gl069725
• 发表时间: 2016-07-16
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Kennedy, Daniel;Parker, Tess;Shaffrey, Len
• 通讯作者: Shaffrey, Len