PRESTO: PREcipitation STructures over Orography.

PRESTO：地形上的降水结构。

• 批准号: NE/I026545/1
• 负责人: David Schultz
• 金额: $ 23.4万
• 依托单位: University of Manchester
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI026545%2F1
• 关键词: PRESTO; PREcipitation; STructures; over; Orography.

Flash floods cause loss of life and billions of pounds of damage each year within the UK, and take an additional toll on society through lasting impacts including a four-fold enhancement in the risk of depression. Because of the acute hazards and long-term consequences of these events, it is essential that they be accurately understood and predicted. Two of the three principal mechanisms behind UK flash-flooding events are convective storms and orographic precipitation (the other being frontal systems). Their impact has been reinforced in recent years by a series of devastating events. The Boscastle flood of 2004 and the Ottery St Mary's hailstorm of 2008 were both caused by quasi-stationary convective storms, and the Carlisle flood of 2005 and Cockermouth flood of 2009 were both caused by orographically enhanced rainfall. Although convection and orography may act independently to produce extreme rainfall, they are often closely linked over the complex UK terrain. The mechanical ascent upstream, over, and downwind of steep terrain and the thermally-driven ascent due to elevated heating are primary convection-initiation mechanisms in conditionally unstable flows. Because orography is fixed in space, these storms may anchor to specific terrain features and focus their precipitation over preferred areas. In particular, quasi-stationary precipitation bands are a manifestation of orographic convection that greatly increases flood risks because they focus heavy precipitation over specific regions. Such events are of particular concern over orographic watersheds, which, due to their steep gorges and confined basins, are highly susceptible to floods.Thanks to the high resolution radar systems, quasi-stationary convective bands have been observed over numerous mountain regions including Japan, the Mediterranean region, Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest United States, and Caribbean islands. The hydro-meteorological importance of these bands is reflected by the planned installation of a dedicated observational network for banded orographic convection over the French Massif Central during the upcoming Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean (HyMEX) programme. Although these bands also develop regularly over the UK, they have received little previous attention. Moreover, the majority of previous studies have focused on specific cases and have not generally identified the environmental conditions that favour their formation, the mechanisms that cause them to develop, or their predictability in numerical models.The proposed work will provide a leap forward in the understanding and prediction of quasi-stationary orographic convection in the UK and beyond. This will be achieved through an intensive climatological analysis over several regions of the globe where continuous radar data is available, which will identify the environmental conditions that support the bands and their characteristic locations and morphologies. Complementary high-resolution numerical simulations will pinpoint the underlying mechanisms behind the bands and their predictability in numerical weather prediction models. This work will provide positive impacts for the forecasting community, general public, and other academics in the field. Forecasters will benefit from the identification of simple diagnostics that can be used operationally to predict these events based on available model forecasts and/or upstream soundings. A series of activities are proposed to directly engage with forecasters to effectively disseminate our findings. The public will benefit from improved forecasting of potentially hazardous precipitation events. The academic community will benefit from the advanced physical understanding (which will be disseminated through conferences, workshops, and peer-reviewed publications) and the numerous international collaborations associated with this project.

在英国，山洪每年造成人员伤亡和数十亿英镑的损失，并通过持久影响（包括使抑郁症风险增加四倍）对社会造成额外损失。由于这些事件具有严重危害和长期后果，因此准确理解和预测它们至关重要。英国山洪爆发事件背后的三个主要机制中的两个是对流风暴和地形降水（另一个是锋面系统）。近年来，一系列毁灭性事件加剧了它们的影响。 2004年的博斯卡斯尔洪水和2008年的奥特里圣玛丽冰雹都是由准静止对流风暴引起的，2005年的卡莱尔洪水和2009年的科克茅斯洪水都是由地形增强的降雨引起的。尽管对流和地形可能独立产生极端降雨，但它们在英国复杂的地形上往往紧密相连。陡峭地形的逆风、上风和顺风机械上升以及由于升温引起的热驱动上升是条件不稳定流中的主要对流引发机制。由于地形在空间中是固定的，这些风暴可能会锚定特定的地形特征，并将降水集中在首选区域。特别是，准稳态降水带是地形对流的一种表现，由于它们将强降水集中在特定区域，因此大大增加了洪水风险。此类事件在地形分水岭上尤其令人担忧，由于其陡峭的峡谷和封闭的盆地，极易遭受洪水的影响。借助高分辨率雷达系统，在包括日本在内的许多山区都观测到了准静止对流带。地中海地区、落基山脉、美国西北部太平洋地区和加勒比岛屿。这些波段的水文气象重要性体现在计划在即将到来的地中海水文循环（HyMEX）计划期间在法国中央高原上安装一个专用的带状地形对流观测网络。尽管这些乐队也在英国定期发展，但他们之前很少受到关注。此外，之前的大多数研究都集中在具体案例上，并没有普遍确定有利于它们形成的环境条件、导致它们发展的机制或它们在数值模型中的可预测性。本文提出的工作将为这一领域提供一个飞跃。对英国及其他地区准稳态地形对流的理解和预测。这将通过对全球多个可获得连续雷达数据的地区进行深入的气候分析来实现，分析将确定支持这些波段的环境条件及其特征位置和形态。互补的高分辨率数值模拟将查明这些波段背后的潜在机制及其在数值天气预报模型中的可预测性。这项工作将为预测界、公众和该领域的其他学者带来积极影响。预报员将受益于简单诊断的识别，这些诊断可在操作上根据可用的模型预报和/或上游探测来预测这些事件。建议开展一系列活动来直接与预报员接触，以有效传播我们的发现。公众将受益于对潜在危险降水事件的改进预报。学术界将受益于先进的物理理解（将通过会议、研讨会和同行评审的出版物传播）以及与该项目相关的众多国际合作。

项目成果

Can Mountain Waves Contribute to Damaging Winds Far Away from the Lee Slope?

远离李坡的山浪会带来破坏性的风吗？

• DOI: http://dx.10.1175/waf-d-18-0207.1
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Weather and Forecasting
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Kelley J

Build Your Own Earth: A Web-Based Tool for Exploring Climate Model Output in Teaching and Research

建造你自己的地球：用于在教学和研究中探索气候模型输出的基于网络的工具

• DOI: http://dx.10.1175/bams-d-16-0121.1
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Fairman J

Are weather conditions associated with chronic musculoskeletal pain? Review of results and methodologies.

天气状况与慢性肌肉骨骼疼痛有关吗？

• DOI: http://dx.10.1097/j.pain.0000000000001776
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Pain
• 影响因子: 7.4
• 作者: Beukenhorst AL

Cloud Trails Past the Lesser Antilles

云朵飘过小安的列斯群岛

• DOI: http://dx.10.1175/mwr-d-14-00254.1
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Monthly Weather Review
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Kirshbaum D

Sedimentological and Paleoclimate Modeling Evidence for Preservation of Jurassic Annual Cycles in Sedimentation, Western Gondwana

冈瓦纳西部沉积作用中侏罗纪年循环保存的沉积学和古气候模拟证据

• DOI: 10.1175/ei-d-15-0046.1
• 发表时间: 2016-07-06
• 期刊: Earth Interactions
• 影响因子: 2
• 作者: M. Gugliotta;J. Fairman;D. Schultz;S. Flint
• 通讯作者: S. Flint