Diagnosing Earth's Energy Pathways in the Climate system (DEEP-C)

诊断气候系统中地球的能量路径（DEEP-C）

• 批准号: NE/K004387/1
• 负责人: Elaine McDonagh
• 金额: $ 53.33万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK004387%2F1
• 关键词: Diagnosing; Earth; Energy; Pathways; Climate; Diagnosing; Earth; Energy; Pathways; Climate

A global warming trend since the 1970s has slowed over the most recent 10-15 years despite the continuing build up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels). Our proposed research seeks to understand the reasons for this "hiatus" in global warming and in particular the roles of the ocean and atmosphere in contributing to this hiatus through movement of energy around the climate system. This will help us monitor changes in climate and understand the processes that are important in enabling us to predict climate change more accurately over the coming decades. Warming of the planet is caused by a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth and the outgoing flow of thermal (infra-red) radiative energy constantly emanating from our planet to space: if more energy is arriving than leaving then the climate heats up. To understand why the heating has apparently slowed requires a detailed assessment of the flows of energy arriving from space, how this energy is transported by the atmosphere, taken up by the surface ocean and subducted deep below the sea surface. Previously, scientists had identified a discrepancy between these energy flows, or "missing energy" in the climate. A primary objective to the proposed research program is to resolve the discrepancy between these energy flows and understand the root causes of the hiatus in the warming of the Earth's surface. Our proposed project combines the latest, improved satellite measurements of Earth's radiative energy imbalance (reflected sunlight and emitted thermal radiation) with our best estimates of energy flows in the atmosphere (from reanalysis simulations) and detailed 3-dimensional ocean heating measurements made by thousands of automated floating buoys, to determine the observed flows of energy in the climate system. We will combine these measurements with state-of-the-art depictions of Earth's climate from sophisticated computer simulations to understand the mechanisms by which the build up of energy due to greenhouse gas increases is redistributed into the oceans. It is plausible that increased amounts of reflective aerosols in the atmosphere (due to human activities or naturally through emissions by volcanic eruptions) may have diminished the heating of the planet. However, our preliminary analyses lead us to the hypothesis that in fact more heat has been entering the deep ocean rather than heating the planets surface. Getting to the bottom of this question is vital for understanding current climate variability and future change over the coming 10 years or more. We consider that the research is also important for understanding regional sea level rise (since warmer water occupies a larger volume leading to rising sea level), fluctuations in clouds and whether they magnify or reduce warming tendencies (climate feedbacks) and simulating the ocean circulation and heat uptake, crucial for representing climate change over the coming decades. We consider that this research is only possible by combining the expertise from three institutions (the University of Reading, the National Oceanography Centre Southampton and the Met Office) covering satellite data, reanalyses of the atmosphere and ocean, ocean measurements and numerical computer simulations of the climate system. The current planetary changes are unusual and present a timely opportunity for understanding how our climate system works: to discover the cause of the global warming hiatus and to understand and simulate the mechanisms important in representing climate variability and change over the coming decades.

自1970年代以来，全球变暖趋势在最近的10 - 15年中放慢了速度，尽管大气中二氧化碳的持续增强（主要是由于化石燃料的燃烧）。我们拟议的研究试图了解全球变暖中这种“中断”的原因，尤其是海洋和气氛在气候系统周围的能量运动中促成这种停滞的作用。这将有助于我们监视气候变化，并了解使我们能够在未来几十年更准确地预测气候变化的过程。地球的变暖是由地球吸收的阳光数量与热（红外）辐射能的外向流量之间不断从我们的星球到太空的散发出来的阳光量之间的小而持久的失衡引起的：如果能量到达更多的能量，那么要到达更多的能量，而不是离开气候。要了解为什么加热显然减慢了，需要对从太空到达的能量流进行详细评估，如何通过大气传输这种能量，并被地表海洋带走并在海面深处俯冲。以前，科学家已经确定了这些能量流量或气候中“缺失能量”之间的差异。拟议的研究计划的主要目的是解决这些能量流之间的差异，并了解地球表面变暖中裂隙的根本原因。我们提出的项目结合了最新的，改进的卫星测量，对地球的辐射能量不平衡（反映的阳光和发射的热辐射）以及我们对大气中的能量流的最佳估计（来自重新分析模拟），以及详细的3维海洋供暖测量，由成千上万的自动化浮标确定能量制度，以确定能量系统的浮标。我们将将这些测量值与从复杂的计算机模拟中对地球气候的最先进的描述相结合，以了解将由于温室气体增加而增加的能源的机制，并将其重新分配到海洋中。合理的是，大气中的反射气溶胶量增加（由于人类活动或通过火山喷发的排放而自然）可能会减少地球的加热。但是，我们的初步分析使我们提出了这样的假设：实际上，更多的热量已经进入了深海，而不是加热行星表面。到达这个问题的底部对于了解当前的气候变异性和未来10年或更长时间的未来变化至关重要。我们认为，这项研究对于了解区域海平面上升也很重要（因为较温暖的水占据了较大的体积，导致海平面上升），云的波动以及它们是否放大或减少变暖趋势（气候反馈）（气候反馈），模拟海洋循环和热量吸收，对未来十年来代表气候变化至关重要。我们认为，只有通过将三个机构（雷丁大学，国家海洋学中心南安普敦和大都会办公室）的专业知识结合起来，涵盖了卫星数据，大气和海洋的重新分析，海洋测量以及气候系统的数值计算机模拟。当前的行星变化是不寻常的，并为理解我们的气候系统的运作方式提供了及时的机会：发现全球变暖中断的原因，并理解和模拟对代表气候变异性和未来几十年变化重要的机制。