Hydrometeorological feedbacks and changes in water storage and fluxes in northern India

印度北部水文气象反馈以及水储存和通量的变化

基本信息

批准号：
NE/I022558/1
负责人：
Wouter Buytaert
金额：
$ 50.33万
依托单位：
Imperial College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2012 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI022558%2F1
关键词：
Hydrometeorological feedbacks changes water storage

项目摘要

The Gangetic Plain is a large fertile area at the foot of the Himalayas, covering most of northern India. Home to around 400 million inhabitants, it is one of the most densely inhabited regions in South-East Asia. With its fertile soils, monsoon precipitation and vast groundwater aquifers, the plains have been at the heart of the Indian agricultural revolution. Over the last 4 decades, the introduction of new fertilisers and crops, and the construction of large-scale irrigation systems have been major drivers of socio-economic development in the region. These practices have, however, also led to severe groundwater decline and strains on other water resources. Changing feedbacks of water and energy between the land-surface and atmosphere may have even altered the local climate system. A strong economic development is expected to continue these trends in the near future and future climate change is also expected to increase the pressure on local water resources systems.Identifying the major causes of observed historical changes in water availability and predicting the future impact of local water management strategies under climate change are particularly challenging, yet indispensable for the sustainable management of water resources. For example: assessing the sustainability of groundwater aquifers requires knowledge of global climate influences, but also of the influence of land-use, abstractions and soil moisture dynamics; furthermore, the unprecedented scale of land-use changes and increased irrigation are expected to have influenced local climate through feedbacks of water and energy. In order to unravel and quantify the impact of different drivers of change, a fully integrated analysis of the major water fluxes in the Gangetic Plain is needed.This study would be the first to analyse changes in the main water fluxes and feedbacks of the Gangetic Plain in a fully integrated modelling set-up. The approach will enable the separation of the impact of local and regional land use change from that of global climate drivers. We will develop a custom-built coupled hydrological model for the region using available groundwater and surface water modelling toolboxes. This model will be calibrated and tested using a variety of different sources of information, from local measurements, satellite observations and global climate (reanalysis) datasets. Subsequently, we will run the model with different land-use and water extraction scenarios. This will allow us to quantify the impact of land-use change and extraction on the main hydrological fluxes and water resources.At the same time, the hydrological model will generate high-resolution data about soil moisture changes resulting from historical land-use, as well as different hypothetical scenarios. By feeding these scenarios into a global climate model, we will study the potential feedbacks of large-scale changes in soil moisture on the Indian monsoon system. A pair of state-of-the-art global climate models will be used: the UK MetOffice Unified Model (MetUM) and the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4). In a final step, the superimposed impact of climate change will be assessed and future predictions of water availability will be generated. For this purpose, we will use the new CMIP5 ensemble of climate models. Using a statistical approach, these models will be downscaled to a level useful for application over the Gangetic Plains. The integrated hydrological model can then be run with these future climate projections to assess the impact of future climate change on regional and local water availability. Two local case studies will address the usefulness of such projections and their uncertainties in a local ecosystem-oriented management setting.

恒河平原是喜马拉雅山脚下的一个庞大的肥沃地区，覆盖了印度北部的大部分地区。它是约4亿居民的所在地，是东南亚最密集的地区之一。凭借其肥沃的土壤，季风降水和广泛的地下水含水层，平原一直是印度农业革命的核心。在过去的40年中，新的肥料和农作物的引入以及大规模灌溉系统的建设一直是该地区社会经济发展的主要驱动力。但是，这些做法也导致了其他水资源的严重下降和压力。在土地表面和大气之间的水和能量反馈变化甚至可能改变了当地气候系统。预计，在不久的将来，预计将继续进行这些趋势，并且未来的气候变化也有望增加对当地水资源系统的压力。确定观察到的水的历史变化的主要原因，并预测气候变化下当地水管理策略的未来影响尤其具有挑战性，但对于水资源可持续管理而言是必不可少的。例如：评估地下水含水层的可持续性需要了解全球气候影响，也需要对土地利用，抽象和土壤水分动态的影响；此外，预计土地利用变化和增加灌溉的前所未有的规模将通过水和能源的反馈来影响当地气候。为了解开和量化不同变化驱动因素的影响，需要对恒河平原中的主要水通量进行完全整合的分析。这项研究将是第一个在完全集成的建模设置中分析恒河平原的主要水通量和反馈的变化。该方法将使地方和区域土地使用的影响与全球气候驱动因素的影响分开。我们将使用可用的地下水和地表水建模工具箱为该地区开发一个定制的耦合水文模型。该模型将使用各种不同的信息来校准和测试，从局部测量，卫星观测和全球气候（重新分析）数据集进行校准和测试。随后，我们将使用不同的土地利用和抽水场景运行该模型。这将使我们能够量化土地利用变化和提取对主要水文通量和水资源的影响。在同时，水文模型将产生有关历史土地利用以及不同假设的情况导致土壤水分变化的高分辨率数据。通过将这些场景喂入全球气候模型，我们将研究印度季风系统上土壤水分大规模变化的潜在反馈。将使用一对最先进的全球气候模型：英国Metoffice统一模型（Metum）和NCAR社区气氛模型（CAM4）。在最后一步中，将评估气候变化的叠加影响，并将产生未来的水可用性预测。为此，我们将使用新的CMIP5气候模型集合。使用统计方法，这些模型将被缩小到可用于在恒河平原上应用的水平。然后，可以使用这些未来的气候预测来运行综合的水文模型，以评估未来气候变化对区域和当地水的可用性的影响。两个本地案例研究将解决此类预测及其在本地生态系统的管理环境中的有用性。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

A Comparative Analysis of TRMM-Rain Gauge Data Merging Techniques at the Daily Time Scale for Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Applications

DOI：
10.1175/jhm-d-14-0197.1
发表时间：
2015-10
期刊：
Journal of Hydrometeorology
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
D. Nerini;Z. Zulkafli;Li-Pen Wang;C. Onof;W. Buytaert;Waldo Lavado-Casimiro;J. Guyot
通讯作者：
D. Nerini;Z. Zulkafli;Li-Pen Wang;C. Onof;W. Buytaert;Waldo Lavado-Casimiro;J. Guyot

Modelling socio-hydrological systems: a review of concepts, approaches and applications