Using inter-glacials to assess future sea-level scenarios (iGlass)

利用间冰期评估未来海平面情景 (iGlass)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/I008365/1
负责人：
Mark Tamisiea
金额：
$ 41.1万
依托单位：
NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2011 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI008365%2F1
关键词：
Using inter glacials assess future

项目摘要

The vulnerability of extensive near-coastal habitation, infrastructure, and trade makes global sea-level rise a major global concern for society. The UK coastline, for example, has ~£150 billion of assets at risk from coastal flooding, of which with £75 billion in London alone. Consequently, most nations have developed/ implemented protection plans, which commonly use ranges of sea-level rise estimates from global warming scenarios such as those published by IPCC, supplemented by worst-case values from limited geological studies. UKCP09 provides the most up-to-date guidance on UK sea-level rise scenarios and includes a low probability, high impact range for maximum UK sea level rise for use in contingency planning and in considerations regarding the limits to potential adaptation (the H++ scenario). UKCP09 emphasises that the H++ scenario is unlikely for the next century, but it does introduce significant concerns when planning for longer-term future sea-level rise. Currently, the range for H++ is set to 0.9-1.9 m of rise by the end of the 21st century. This range of uncertainty is large (with vast planning and financial implications), and - more critically - it has no robust statistical basis. It is important, therefore, to better understand the processes controlling the maximum sea-level rise estimate for the future on these time-scales. This forms the overarching motivation for the consortium project proposed here. iGlass is a broad-ranging interdisciplinary project that will integrate field data and modelling, in order to study the response of ice volume/sea level to different climate states during the last five interglacials, which include times with significantly higher sea level than the present. This will identify the likelihood of reduced ice cover over Greenland and West Antarctica, an important constraint on future sea-level projections. A key outcome will be to place sound limits on the likely ice-volume contribution to maximum sea-level rise estimates for the future. Our project is guided by three key questions: Q1. What do palaeo-sea level positions reveal about the global ice-volume/sea-level changes during a range of different interglacial climate states? Q2. What were the rates of sea-level rise in past interglacials, and to what extent are these relevant for future change, given the different climate forcing? Q3. Under a range of given (IPCC) climate projection scenarios, what are the projected limits to maximum sea-level rise over the next few centuries when accounting for ice-sheet contributions? The research will directly inform decision-making processes regarding flood risk management in the UK and abroad. In this respect, the project benefits from the close co-operation with scientists and practitioners in the UK Environment Agency, UKCIP, the UK insurance industry, as well as the wider global academic and user communities.

例如，近海岸广泛的居住、基础设施和贸易的脆弱性使得全球海平面上升成为全球社会关注的主要问题，英国海岸线约有 1500 亿英镑的资产面临沿海洪水的威胁，其中 1500 亿英镑。仅在伦敦就进行了 750 亿人的测试，大多数国家都制定/实施了保护计划，这些计划通常使用全球变暖情景中的海平面上升估计范围，例如 IPCC 发布的数据，并辅以有限地质研究的最坏情况值。 UKCP09 提供最多。关于英国海平面上升情景的最新指南，包括英国海平面最大上升的低概率、高影响范围，用于应急计划和考虑潜在适应的限制（UKCP09 强调）。 H++ 情景不太可能出现在下个世纪，但在规划未来长期海平面上升时，它确实会引起重大担忧。目前，H++ 的上升范围设定为 21 世纪末上升 0.9-1.9 m。这种不确定性范围很大（具有巨大的规划和财务影响），而且更重要的是，它没有可靠的统计基础，因此，更好地了解控制最大海平面上升估计的过程非常重要。这构成了这里提出的联盟项目的总体动机，它是一个广泛的跨学科项目，它将整合现场数据和建模，以研究冰量/海平面对不同气候的响应。过去五年中的状态间冰期，其中包括海平面明显高于现在的时期，这将确定格陵兰岛和南极洲西部冰盖减少的可能性，这是对未来海平面预测的一个重要限制。我们的项目以三个关键问题为指导：古海平面位置揭示了一系列时期内全球冰量/海平面的变化。不同的间冰期气候状态？ Q2. 过去间冰期海平面上升的速率是多少，以及在不同的气候强迫下，这些速率与未来的变化有多大关系？在考虑冰盖影响时，预计未来几个世纪海平面上升的上限是多少？该研究将直接为英国和国外的洪水风险管理决策过程提供信息。在这方面，该项目将受益。来自与科学家的密切合作英国环境署、UKCIP、英国保险业以及更广泛的全球学术和用户社区的从业者。