Poverty and ecology: developing a new evolutionary approach

贫困与生态：开发新的进化方法

基本信息

批准号：
NE/I002960/1
负责人：
John Alfred Dearing
金额：
$ 26.63万
依托单位：
University of Southampton
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2010
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2010 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI002960%2F1
关键词：
Poverty ecology developing new evolutionary

项目摘要

China's Premier Wen Jiabao recently commented that the sluggish development of agriculture and the slow increase of farmers' incomes constituted the nation's major problems and challenges - a view that is repeated in many developing countries. Alleviating poverty and raising standards of well-being among the rural poor is often seen in terms of inequalities in individual opportunities, land tenure and market imbalances. But increasingly scientists are arguing that rural development must also proceed alongside proper management of the natural environment. Without this, the possible negative consequences for food supply, water quality, biodiversity and other aspects of the environment that we all depend upon, so-called ecological services, are severe. There are countless examples of how agricultural development has caused signficant and often irreversible damage to the natural fabric that supports society. The challenge is how to develop, while ensuring that the decisions made now will lead to sustainable use of the land for decades to come? Conventionally, computer models have provided guidance about future consequences of human activities and climate change on key environmental conditons. But there is increasing criticism that the models do not handle well the possibility that the natural environment can change in unpredictable ways. We know that natural environments can change in complex ways, as with flooding and forest fire, but when humans are involved these changes can be even more unpredictable - and many of the current models do not deal with this well. There is the danger that existing models are providing a false clarity of the future. Our research addresses this problem in a novel way. We argue that contemporary rural landscsapes are the product of their history, and that we can learn much from analysing how the mixture of human actions, climate and ecology has effectively 'evolved' to the state that we see today. This is no idle thought. Many studies have shown that the time taken for ecological processes to change is often over relatively long timescales. For example, pollution of rivers and lakes by sewage and fertlizers can take several decades from the start of the pollution to the whole water system reacting in terms of fish losses or build-up of poisonous algae. Sometimes, ecosytems can withstand a good deal of stress from human activities, but when they finally give way the result can be very damaging. In the lower Yangtze river basin, where the research is set, history describes a catalogue of human catastrophes wrought by flood, famine and poor agricultural practice. Even today, there is widespread rural poverty across many agricultural settings, and many environmental problems. There is accelerating soil erosion on the hilly lands; deteriorating water quality in irrigation channels, rivers and lakes; the ever-present threat of flooding; coastal erosion from rising sea-levels; pressure to produce more food for the rising city populations at a time when the rural population is declining and getting older. We will compile records for local indigenous knowledge, socio-economic data and ecological change for the lower Yangtze basin as a whole and for four selected counties, two of which we have already worked in, for upto the last 200 years or so. These data will be set up within a newly developed application for Google Earth so that we can easily show politicians, administrators, advisors, and farmers the changes that the environment has already experienced and how it might change in the future. We will analyse the trends mathematically and statistically in order to evaluate the sustainability of the current form of agricultural management. We will meet with academics, agencies and rural communities to discuss the implications of the results, how the results compare with their own perceptions of change, and what might be the best alternative futures to aim for.

中国总理的温·贾巴奥（Wen Jiabao）最近评论说，农业的发展缓慢，农民收入的增长却构成了美国的主要问题和挑战 - 这一观点在许多发展中国家都重复了。从个人机遇，土地权限和市场失衡中的不平等方面，通常可以看到农村贫困人口中贫困和提高福祉标准的情况。但是，越来越多的科学家认为，农村发展也必须与自然环境的适当管理一起进行。没有此，我们都依赖的粮食供应，水质，生物多样性和其他依赖环境的其他方面的负面影响是严重的。有无数的例子说明农业发展是如何对支持社会的自然结构造成的显着且经常不可逆转的损害。面临的挑战是如何发展，同时确保现在做出的决定将导致未来几十年来可持续利用土地？通常，计算机模型为人类活动的未来后果以及气候变化对关键环境孔的影响提供了指导。但是，越来越多的批评是，这些模型无法很好地处理自然环境可以以不可预测的方式改变的可能性。我们知道，自然环境可以像洪水和森林大火一样以复杂的方式发生变化，但是当人类涉及这些变化时，这些变化可能更加不可预测 - 而且许多当前模型都无法很好地处理这一问题。存在危险，即现有模型正在为未来提供错误的清晰度。我们的研究以新颖的方式解决了这个问题。我们认为，当代农村景观是其历史的产物，我们可以通过分析人类行动，气候和生态学的混合如何有效地“进化”到我们今天所看到的国家中学到很多东西。这不是闲置的想法。许多研究表明，生态过程所花费的时间通常是相对较长的时间表。例如，污水和肥料对河流和湖泊的污染可能需要数十年的时间，从污染开始到整个水系统，以鱼类的损失或有毒藻类的积累来做出反应。有时，生态学可以承受人类活动中的大量压力，但是当它们最终赋予位置时，结果可能会非常有害。在研究的下扬兹河流域，历史描述了洪水，饥荒和农业差的人类灾难的目录。即使在今天，许多农业环境中仍存在广泛的农村贫困，以及许多环境问题。丘陵土地上存在加速的土壤侵蚀。灌溉通道，河流和湖泊中的水质恶化；洪水泛滥的威胁；海平面上升的沿海侵蚀；在农村人口在下降和年龄越来越大的时候，为不断增长的城市人口生产更多食物的压力。我们将编写整个长江盆地的当地土著知识，社会经济数据和生态变化的记录，以及四个选定的县，其中两个我们已经从事了过去的200年左右。这些数据将在新开发的Google Earth应用程序中设置，以便我们可以轻松地向政客，管理人员，顾问和农民展示环境已经发生的变化以及未来的变化。我们将在数学和统计上分析趋势，以评估当前农业管理形式的可持续性。我们将与学者，机构和农村社区会面，讨论结果的含义，结果如何与他们自己对变革的看法以及最佳替代未来相比。