Modeling Climate, Ecosystem Services and Livelihoods to Identify Resilient Governance Systems

对气候、生态系统服务和生计进行建模，以确定有弹性的治理系统

• 批准号: NE/I00260X/1
• 负责人: David Wilkie
• 金额: $ 4.15万
• 依托单位: Wildlife Conservation Society
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2010 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI00260X%2F1
• 关键词: Modeling; Climate; Ecosystem; Services; Livelihoods

This project proposes to form a consortium of partners from the United Kingdom, Tanzania, Rwanda, Bolivia, Brazil and the United States to develop a research framework that will help fill knowledge gaps related to how climate change will impact provisioning and regulatory ecosystem services; how these changes might affect rural livelihoods; and how governance solutions can be developed to help manage those changes in countries of the Amazon and Sub-Saharan Africa. This research will generate new data and understandings while building developing country capacity to design and implement policy relevant research on the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services and rural livelihoods. Our research will be conducted at four sites where the ecosystem services provided by forests and hydrological systems are highly interdependent ecologically and integral to local and, in most cases, national economies, and are at risk of major disruption from climate change. These sites include the Great Ruaha river landscape in Tanzania; the Nyungwe forest in Rwanda; the Madidi landscape of Bolivia; and the flooded (várzea) forest landscape in Mamiraua, Brazil. We will develop systems dynamic models of climate, ecosystem services and rural livelihoods in these landscapes, and combine these with participatory assessments of governance options, across a range of spatial and political scales. The models will acknowledge that regulatory and provisioning services are ecologically interdependent, which will permit an exploration of synergies and trade-offs in these ecosystem services under various management regimes. The role that hydrological systems and watershed management play in regulating flows of provisioning services is the common thread that binds these sites, however, the ecological and socio-political differences across sites will make the policy implications of research results broadly applicable to other locations in the Amazon and Sub-Saharan Africa. Combined, the sites will allow us to speak to a variety of water-livelihood interactions related to fisheries, energy, agriculture, sanitation and tourism, and to a range of governance contexts. These are sites where the consortium's existing data bases and local relationships are especially well developed, allowing us to conduct both quantitative modeling and qualitative research with the greatest effectiveness and efficiency. Through a series of informal preparatory meetings, consortium members and local partners will initiate a participatory process to design a research program to assess the impact of climate change on ecosystem services provision and local livelihoods. Through WebEx sessions, we will host virtual meetings to exchange ideas that will lay the foundation for a consortium planning workshop in Bolivia to consolidate the interdisciplinary team and identify research needs at each site. The workshop will produce a research program designed to identify major knowledge gaps in existing data and capacity building priorities and estimate the level of funding required to support the proposed research. This grant will enable us to develop a framework for building a cadre of researchers with the skills needed to assess climate change impacts on ecosystem services and rural livelihoods for informing policy makers. By working collaboratively across sites, the program will foster direct south-south exchange of skills and knowledge and build the collegial relationships needed for future joint research. Strengthening capacity to conduct policy relevant research is critical for guiding development decisions that enhance local and national resilience to ecological, economic and social shocks linked to climate change. As a result of this proposed program, our partners and their communities in developing nations will be better prepared to adapt to climate change and to manage ecosystem services for the benefit of the rural poor.

该项目提议组建一个由来自英国、坦桑尼亚、卢旺达、玻利维亚、巴西和美国的合作伙伴组成的联盟，以开发一个研究框架，以帮助填补与气候变化如何影响这些生态系统服务的供应和监管相关的知识空白；变化可能会影响农村生计；以及如何制定治理解决方案来帮助管理亚马逊和撒哈拉以南非洲国家的这些变化。这项研究将产生新的数据和理解，同时建设发展中国家设计和实施政策相关研究的能力。气候的影响我们的研究将在四个地点进行，这些地点的森林和水文系统提供的生态系统服务在生态上高度相互依存，是当地经济和大多数情况下国家经济的组成部分，并且面临遭受重大破坏的风险。这些地点包括坦桑尼亚的大鲁阿哈河景观、卢旺达的马迪迪景观和巴西马米拉瓦的洪水（瓦尔泽亚）森林景观。这些模型将承认监管和供应评估在生态上是相互依赖的，这将允许探索协同作用。水文系统和流域管理在调节供应服务流量方面发挥的作用是连接这些地点的共同点，但是，不同地点之间的生态和社会政治差异将影响这些生态系统服务的平衡和权衡。使研究结果的政策影响广泛适用于亚马逊和撒哈拉以南非洲的其他地区，这些网站将使我们能够讨论与渔业、能源、农业、卫生和旅游业有关的各种水与生计的相互作用，以及一系列治理环境，该联盟的现有数据库和当地关系特别发达，使我们能够通过一系列非正式筹备会议以最大的效果和效率进行定量建模和定性研究，联盟成员和当地合作伙伴将发起一个参与过程，设计一项研究计划，以评估气候变化对生态系统服务提供和当地生计的影响，我们将通过 WebEx 会议举办虚拟会议，交流想法，为联盟奠定基础。在玻利维亚举办的规划研讨会，旨在巩固跨学科团队并确定每个地点的研究需求。该研讨会将制定一个研究计划，旨在确定现有数据和能力建设优先事项中的主要知识差距，并估计支持拟议研究所需的资金水平。这笔赠款将使我们能够制定一个框架，建立一支具有评估气候变化对生态系统服务和农村生计影响所需技能的研究人员队伍，为决策者提供信息。通过跨地点协作，该计划将促进南南技术和知识的直接交流，并建立加强未来联合研究所需的合作关系对于指导发展决策至关重要，从而增强地方和国家应对气候变化相关生态、经济和社会冲击的能力。以及他们在发展中国家的社区将更好地准备适应气候变化和管理生态系统服务，造福农村贫困人口。