RAPID-RAPIT

快速

• 批准号: NE/G015368/1
• 负责人: Peter Challenor
• 金额: $ 40.39万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2009 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FG015368%2F1
• 关键词: RAPID; RAPIT

North west Europe has a relatively mild climate in part because of heat pulled north through the Atlantic by the overturning. There is a risk that global warming will cause this circulation to rapidly decrease with consequences involving not only colder winters for Europe but also changes in sea level and precipitation. This project will carry out a risk assessment of rapid changes of the Atlantic overturning. We will use two models of the climate system, HADCM3, the Hadley Centre model used in the IPCC AR4, and CHIME, a global climate model developed at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton. This has the same atmospheric model as HADCM3 but has a very different structure to the ocean component. Making use of the resources of climateprediction.net we will run a large ensemble of both models to assess the uncertainties in the system. We will then use modern Bayesian statistical techniques to combine model output, data and expert opinion in our risk assessment. An assessment of the utility of the data from the RAPID-WATCH arrays is an important aim of the project.

西北欧的气候相对温和，部分原因是由于倾覆而北部穿过大西洋。有风险，全球变暖会导致这种循环迅速减少，而后果不仅涉及欧洲冷冬季，而且还会改变海平面和降水量。该项目将对大西洋推翻的快速变化进行风险评估。我们将使用两种模型的气候系统，Hadcm3，IPCC AR4中使用的Hadley Center模型，以及在南安普敦国家海洋学中心开发的全球气候模型Chime。这与HADCM3具有相同的大气模型，但与海洋组件的结构非常不同。利用气候Prediction.net的资源，我们将运行大量的两种模型，以评估系统中的不确定性。然后，我们将使用现代贝叶斯统计技术在风险评估中结合模型输出，数据和专家意见。从快速观察阵列中评估数据的效用是该项目的重要目的。

项目成果

History matching for exploring and reducing climate model parameter space using observations and a large perturbed physics ensemble

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1896-4
• 发表时间: 2013-08
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: D. Williamson;M. Goldstein;L. Allison;A. Blaker;P. Challenor;L. Jackson;K. Yamazaki

Some considerations on the spectral features of meridional heat transport by transient eddies

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.2224
• 发表时间: 2014-04-01
• 期刊: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Messori, G.;Czaja, A.
• 通讯作者: Czaja, A.

An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

基于事件的方法来了解大西洋经向翻转环流的年代际波动

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2271-9
• 发表时间: 2014
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Allison L

Predictions of critical transitions with non-stationary reduced order models

使用非平稳降阶模型预测关键转变

• DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2013.07.013
• 发表时间: 2013
• 期刊: Nonlinear Phenomena
• 作者: Franzke C

Climate Simulators and Climate Projections

• DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-022513-115652
• 发表时间: 2014-01
• 作者: J. Rougier;M. Goldstein