Reframing non-CO2 climate mitigation approaches to limit global warming

重新制定非二氧化碳气候缓解方法以限制全球变暖

• 批准号: MR/W010577/1
• 负责人: Michelle Cain
• 金额: $ 99.1万
• 依托单位: CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FW010577%2F1
• 关键词: Reframing; non; CO2; climate; mitigation

About a decade ago, our thinking on climate mitigation dramatically changed with the concept of carbon budgets. This made clear that reducing CO2 emissions was not enough - we had to eliminate them completely or simply reach our maximum budget (and temperature) more slowly. My vision for this fellowship is to bring a similar sea-change in attitude towards non-CO2 contributors to global warming, especially short-lived pollutants like methane. As with the carbon budget concept, the missing piece currently is a simple and transparent way to accurately represent the complexities of the climate. With the Paris Agreement, countries have agreed on a global aspiration to limit global warming to well below 2C. Some countries, cities, sector organisations and companies have announced 'net zero' targets, or at least have emissions reductions targets. However, these targets are currently not enough combined to achieve the Paris temperature goal. Further, in most cases they are ambiguous with regard to the details of the target. Not only does this cause uncertainty in analysing the expected global warming from achieving the targets, it suggests that detailed plans of action are not in place. A critical element of my research is to bring in one of the key uncertainties, short-lived climate pollutants, such as methane and aerosol, into an evaluation framework. Traditional methods used to calculate 'CO2-equivalence' do not accurately represent methane's potent and short lived impact on climate. My proposed work using 'CO2-warming-equivalence' (CO2-we) will enable methane's strong short-lived, and much weaker long-lived, impacts to be assessed. This means temperature impacts in 2030, 2050 and 2100 can all be accurately evaluated within one framework for short and long lived pollutants. The 'CO2-warming-equivalence' method is designed to identify the CO2 emissions that would generate the same warming over time as the original methane emission. I will use CO2-we to define the concept of an 'all forcing budget', analogous to the 'carbon budget', which is used by the UK government to limit CO2 emissions. (A 'forcing' is anything that disturbs the climate system's energy balance.) The key elements of this programme are:-Metrics for climate mitigation: I will further develop my work on CO2-we to incorporate all GHG fluxes, aerosol and albedo change, and into a budget framework. The metrics used will be updated and developed to ensure they reproduce the latest understanding from complex climate models for all forcings.-Climate policy: CO2-we will be used as a tool to explore several concepts in climate policy, including a temperature-based fair share analysis for all GHG emissions and countries' national targets under the Paris Agreement. Qualitative methods will be used to investigate the definition of and intention behind organisation-level net-zero (or equivalent) climate targets.-Climate mitigation in the agricultural sector: I will work with stakeholders to develop a new model for assessing mitigation options in the agricultural sector. This will be based on previous work carried out in Cranfield, combined with the metrics described above, and practical knowledge from farmers as to what is feasible on farm. This research will reflect the impact of agriculture on temperature, which most methods do not at present assess. The tools developed in this programme will enable decision makers to accurately evaluate the impact of different actions on temperature over different timescales, to help the decision making process. Unless decision makers are using climate models to simulate mitigation actions, this is currently not an analysis that is available to them. My tools will be quicker and simpler to run than even simple climate models currently are, thus making the analysis available even in the absence of computing skills.

大约十年前，我们对减缓气候变化的看法随着碳预算概念的出现而发生了巨大的变化。这清楚地表明，减少二氧化碳排放量是不够的——我们必须完全消除它们，或者只是更慢地达到我们的最高预算（和温度）。我对这个奖学金的愿景是让人们对导致全球变暖的非二氧化碳排放因素的态度发生类似的巨大变化，特别是像甲烷这样的短期污染物。与碳预算概念一样，目前缺少的是一种简单而透明的方法来准确地表示气候的复杂性。通过《巴黎协定》，各国达成了将全球变暖幅度限制在 2 摄氏度以下的全球愿望。一些国家、城市、部门组织和公司已经宣布了“净零”目标，或者至少制定了减排目标。然而，这些目标目前不足以实现巴黎气温目标。此外，在大多数情况下，它们对于目标的细节是不明确的。这不仅给分析实现目标所带来的预期全球变暖带来不确定性，而且表明详细的行动计划尚未到位。我研究的一个关键要素是将关键不确定性之一、短期气候污染物（例如甲烷和气溶胶）纳入评估框架。用于计算“二氧化碳当量”的传统方法无法准确反映甲烷对气候的强大而短暂的影响。我提出的使用“二氧化碳变暖当量”（CO2-we）的工作将使甲烷的强烈短期影响和较弱的长期影响得以评估。这意味着 2030 年、2050 年和 2100 年的温度影响都可以在一个框架内针对短期和长期污染物进行准确评估。 “二氧化碳变暖当量”方法旨在识别随着时间的推移会产生与原始甲烷排放相同的变暖的二氧化碳排放。我将使用CO2-we来定义“所有强制预算”的概念，类似于英国政府用来限制二氧化碳排放的“碳预算”。 （“强迫”是指任何扰乱气候系统能量平衡的因素。）该计划的关键要素是： - 减缓气候变化的指标：我将进一步开展我在二氧化碳方面的工作 - 我们将所有温室气体通量、气溶胶和反照率变化纳入考虑范围，并纳入预算框架。使用的指标将得到更新和开发，以确保它们重现对所有强迫的复杂气候模型的最新理解。-气候政策：二氧化碳-我们将用作探索气候政策中几个概念的工具，包括基于温度的公平对《巴黎协定》下所有温室气体排放和各国国家目标的份额分析。定性方法将用于调查组织级净零（或同等）气候目标背后的定义和意图。-农业部门的气候缓解：我将与利益相关者合作开发一个新模型，用于评估农业部门的缓解方案农业部门。这将基于克兰菲尔德之前进行的工作，结合上述指标以及农民对农场可行的实践知识。这项研究将反映农业对温度的影响，目前大多数方法都无法评估这一影响。该项目开发的工具将使决策者能够准确评估不同时间范围内不同行动对温度的影响，以帮助决策过程。除非决策者使用气候模型来模拟缓解行动，否则他们目前无法进行分析。我的工具将比目前的简单气候模型更快、更简单地运行，从而即使在缺乏计算技能的情况下也可以进行分析。

项目成果

Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets

分别指出长期和短期温室气体对排放目标的贡献

• DOI: http://dx.10.1038/s41612-021-00226-2
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• 影响因子: 9
• 作者: Allen M

Towards net zero in agriculture: Future challenges and opportunities for arable, livestock and protected cropping systems in the UK

迈向农业净零：英国耕地、牲畜和保护性耕作系统的未来挑战和机遇

• DOI: 10.1177/00307270231178889
• 发表时间: 2023-06-01
• 期刊: Outlook on Agriculture
• 影响因子: 3
• 作者: R. Sakrabani;K. Garnett;J. Knox;J. Rickson;M. Pawlett;N. Falagán;N. Girkin;M. Cain;M. C. Alamar;P. Burgess;J. Harris;K. Patchigolla;D. S;ars;ars;A. Graves;Jack Hannam;Robert W Simmons
• 通讯作者: Robert W Simmons

Are single global warming potential impact assessments adequate for carbon footprints of agri-food systems?

单一的全球变暖潜力影响评估是否足以评估农业食品系统的碳足迹？

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace204
• 发表时间: 2023-08-01
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: G. McAuliffe;J. Lynch;M. Cain;S. Buckingham;R. Rees;A. Collins;M. Allen;R. Pierrehumbert;Michael R. F. Lee;Taro Takahashi
• 通讯作者: Taro Takahashi