Advaenced state estimats of the ocean and cryosphere: innovative new tools to better understand, predict, and prepare for sea level changes

海洋和冰冻圈的先进状态估计：更好地理解、预测和准备海平面变化的创新工具

• 批准号: MR/T020822/1
• 负责人: Daniel Jones
• 金额: $ 93.9万
• 依托单位: British Antarctic Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FT020822%2F1
• 关键词: Advaenced; state; estimats; ocean; cryosphere; Advaenced; state; estimats; ocean; cryosphere

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most serious adaptation challenges facing humanity today. SLR increases the frequency and severity of storm surges, coastal flooding, and erosion, thereby damaging critical infrastructure, hampering economic activity, and potentially displacing more than 100 million people globally who live in coastal communities. Under "business as usual" conditions, global flood costs could increase to over £10tn per year by 2100, under 86 cm of sea level rise. Despite its importance, projections of SLR over this century are very uncertain. The greatest single source of uncertainty in SLR projections comes from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which has the potential to eventually raise sea levels by over three metres if it melts entirely. The WAIS is held back from flowing into the ocean and raising sea levels by large floating ice shelves that protrude from the Antarctic coastline, acting like dams. These crucial ice shelves are melting increasingly rapidly; in recent decades, the rate of ice loss from all Antarctic ice shelves has increased by more than a factor of twelve. The ice shelves are very dynamic systems that can respond quickly to changes in ocean circulation, e.g. increased intrusion of warm water under the ice shelves can melt them from underneath. The threat of rapidly rising seas in the near-to-medium term future highlights the need for improved understanding of how ocean currents deliver heat to the vulnerable undersides of Antarctic ice shelves. Thus far, progress in this area has been hampered by the challenges associated with extracting detailed heat budgets, ice shelf melt rates, and sensitivities from a limited set of observations. In this Fellowship, I will use sensitivity analysis techniques (i.e. adjoint modelling) to establish a next-generation framework for ocean and ice shelf modelling that will make a step change in our ability to make robust and useful SLR projections. I will, for the first time, combine observations and realistic physical models in a hierarchical ocean-ice state estimation framework that will allow me to: (1) obtain spatially-varying, observationally-constrained estimates of melt rates and other hard-to-observe parameters at the ocean-ice interface; (2) quantify the sensitivities of heat content and melt rates at the ocean-ice interface to local and remote air-sea interactions and ocean circulation; (3) create spatially and temporally detailed heat budgets to track how heat is delivered from the open ocean to the ice shelves; and (4) optimise future observing campaigns by intelligently targeting key locations for new measurements. This ocean-ice state estimation framework will be applicable to any ocean-ice system on Earth, offering the potential to transform our ability to understand the present and future behavior of these key sea level regulators. As a result, global societies will be better informed and hence better able to respond to sea level rise, reducing risks to low-lying infrastructure, communities, and businesses.

海平面上升（SLR）是当今人类面临的最严重的适应挑战之一。 SLR增加了风暴潮，沿海洪水和侵蚀的频率和严重程度，从而损害了关键基础设施，妨碍了经济活动，并可能流离该沿海社区的全球超过1亿人。在“往常”条件下，到2100年，全球洪水成本可能会增加到每年超过10亿英镑，而海平面上升86厘米。尽管它很重要，但本世纪SLR的项目还是不确定的。 SLR项目中最大的不确定性单一来源来自南极冰盖（WAIS），如果它完全融化，最终有可能将海平面提高三米以上。 wais从流入海洋中，通过大型浮冰架从南极海岸线伸出，像大坝一样提高海平面。这些至关重要的冰架正在越来越快地融化。近几十年来，所有南极冰架上的冰损失率增加了十二倍以上。冰架是非常动态的系统，可以快速响应海洋循环的变化，例如冰架下的温水侵入增加可以从下面融化它们。在接近中期的未来中，迅速上升的海洋的威胁凸显了人们对洋流如何为南极冰架的脆弱的底面供应热量的理解的必要性。这一领域的进展受到了与提取详细的热预算，冰架融化速率以及从有限的观察结果的敏感性相关的挑战所阻碍的。在此奖学金中，我将使用灵敏度分析技术（即伴随建模）来建立用于海洋和冰架建模的下一代框架，这将使我们做出强大且有用的SLR预测的能力改变。我将首次将观察结果和现实的物理模型结合在层次的海冰状态估计框架中，这将使我能够：（1）在海洋冰界面上获得熔体速率和其他难以观察到的熔体速率和其他难以观察到的熔体速率的估计值； （2）量化海冰界面对局部和远程空气相互作用以及海洋循环的热含量和熔融速率的敏感性； （3）创建空间和临时详细的热预算，以跟踪如何从开阔的海洋传递到冰架的热量； （4）通过智能针对新测量的关键位置来优化未来的观察活动。该海洋冰国家估计框架将适用于地球上任何海冰系统，从而有可能改变我们了解这些关键海洋的当前和未来行为的能力。水平调节器。结果，全球社会将得到更好的了解，从而更好地应对海平面上升，从而降低了低洼的基础设施，社区和企业的风险。