Advaenced state estimats of the ocean and cryosphere: innovative new tools to better understand, predict, and prepare for sea level changes
海洋和冰冻圈的先进状态估计:更好地理解、预测和准备海平面变化的创新工具
基本信息
- 批准号:MR/T020822/1
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 93.9万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:英国
- 项目类别:Fellowship
- 财政年份:2020
- 资助国家:英国
- 起止时间:2020 至 无数据
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most serious adaptation challenges facing humanity today. SLR increases the frequency and severity of storm surges, coastal flooding, and erosion, thereby damaging critical infrastructure, hampering economic activity, and potentially displacing more than 100 million people globally who live in coastal communities. Under "business as usual" conditions, global flood costs could increase to over £10tn per year by 2100, under 86 cm of sea level rise. Despite its importance, projections of SLR over this century are very uncertain. The greatest single source of uncertainty in SLR projections comes from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which has the potential to eventually raise sea levels by over three metres if it melts entirely. The WAIS is held back from flowing into the ocean and raising sea levels by large floating ice shelves that protrude from the Antarctic coastline, acting like dams. These crucial ice shelves are melting increasingly rapidly; in recent decades, the rate of ice loss from all Antarctic ice shelves has increased by more than a factor of twelve. The ice shelves are very dynamic systems that can respond quickly to changes in ocean circulation, e.g. increased intrusion of warm water under the ice shelves can melt them from underneath. The threat of rapidly rising seas in the near-to-medium term future highlights the need for improved understanding of how ocean currents deliver heat to the vulnerable undersides of Antarctic ice shelves. Thus far, progress in this area has been hampered by the challenges associated with extracting detailed heat budgets, ice shelf melt rates, and sensitivities from a limited set of observations. In this Fellowship, I will use sensitivity analysis techniques (i.e. adjoint modelling) to establish a next-generation framework for ocean and ice shelf modelling that will make a step change in our ability to make robust and useful SLR projections. I will, for the first time, combine observations and realistic physical models in a hierarchical ocean-ice state estimation framework that will allow me to: (1) obtain spatially-varying, observationally-constrained estimates of melt rates and other hard-to-observe parameters at the ocean-ice interface; (2) quantify the sensitivities of heat content and melt rates at the ocean-ice interface to local and remote air-sea interactions and ocean circulation; (3) create spatially and temporally detailed heat budgets to track how heat is delivered from the open ocean to the ice shelves; and (4) optimise future observing campaigns by intelligently targeting key locations for new measurements. This ocean-ice state estimation framework will be applicable to any ocean-ice system on Earth, offering the potential to transform our ability to understand the present and future behavior of these key sea level regulators. As a result, global societies will be better informed and hence better able to respond to sea level rise, reducing risks to low-lying infrastructure, communities, and businesses.
海平面上升 (SLR) 是当今人类面临的最严重的适应挑战之一,海平面上升增加了风暴潮、沿海洪水和侵蚀的频率和严重程度,从而破坏了关键基础设施,阻碍了经济活动,并可能导致超过 1 亿人流离失所。在“一切照旧”的情况下,到 2100 年,在海平面上升 86 厘米的情况下,全球洪水损失可能会增加到每年 10 万亿英镑以上。 SLR 预测中最大的不确定性来源来自西南极冰盖 (WAIS),如果 WAIS 完全融化,该冰盖最终有可能使海平面上升三米以上。近几十年来,从南极海岸线突出的大型浮动冰架(就像水坝一样)导致海平面上升,这些重要的冰架融化速度越来越快,所有南极冰层的流失速度都加快了。冰架增加了超过十二倍。冰架是非常动态的系统,可以对海洋环流的变化做出快速反应,例如,冰架下的温水入侵增加可以从下面融化它们。在中短期内,需要更好地了解洋流如何将热量传递到南极冰架脆弱的底部,到目前为止,该领域的进展受到与提取详细热量预算相关的挑战的阻碍,冰架在本研究金中,我将使用敏感性分析技术(即伴随建模)建立下一代海洋和冰架建模框架,这将使我们的能力发生重大变化。我将首次将观测结果和现实物理模型结合到分层海洋冰状态估计框架中,这将使我能够:(1)获得空间变化的、观测受限的融化估计。海洋-冰界面处的速率和其他难以观测的参数;(2) 量化海洋-冰界面处的热含量和融化速率对局部和远程海气相互作用和海洋环流的敏感性;空间和时间上详细的热量预算,以跟踪热量如何从公海传递到冰架;(4)通过智能地瞄准新测量的关键位置来优化未来的观测活动。海冰系统地球有可能改变我们了解这些关键海平面调节器当前和未来行为的能力。因此,全球社会将更好地了解情况,从而更好地应对海平面上升,降低低洼地区的风险。基础设施、社区和企业。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Local and Remote Influences on the Heat Content of Southern Ocean Mode Water Formation Regions
- DOI:10.1029/2020jc016585
- 发表时间:2021-04-01
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.6
- 作者:Boland, Emma J. D.;Jones, Daniel C.;Josey, Simon A.
- 通讯作者:Josey, Simon A.
A sensitivity analysis of a regression model of ocean temperature
海洋温度回归模型的敏感性分析
- DOI:10.1017/eds.2022.10
- 发表时间:2022
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Furner R
- 通讯作者:Furner R
Environmental sensor placement with convolutional Gaussian neural processes
- DOI:10.1017/eds.2023.22
- 发表时间:2022-11
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Tom R. Andersson;W. Bruinsma;Stratis Markou;James Requeima;Alejandro Coca-Castro;Anna Vaughan;A. Ellis;M. Lazzara;Daniel P. Jones;Scott Hosking;Richard E. Turner
- 通讯作者:Tom R. Andersson;W. Bruinsma;Stratis Markou;James Requeima;Alejandro Coca-Castro;Anna Vaughan;A. Ellis;M. Lazzara;Daniel P. Jones;Scott Hosking;Richard E. Turner
Antarctic Bottom Water Sensitivity to Spatio-Temporal Variations in Antarctic Meltwater Fluxes
南极底层水对南极融水通量时空变化的敏感性
- DOI:10.1029/2022gl101595
- 发表时间:2023
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:5.2
- 作者:Aguiar W
- 通讯作者:Aguiar W
A novel heuristic method for detecting overfit in unsupervised classification of climate model data
- DOI:10.1017/eds.2023.40
- 发表时间:2023-12
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:E. Boland;Erin Atkinson;Dani C. Jones
- 通讯作者:E. Boland;Erin Atkinson;Dani C. Jones
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Daniel Jones其他文献
Lysophospholipid (LPA) receptors (version 2019.4) in the IUPHAR/BPS Guide to Pharmacology Database
IUPHAR/BPS 药理学指南数据库中的溶血磷脂 (LPA) 受体(2019.4 版)
- DOI:
10.2218/gtopdb/f36/2019.4 - 发表时间:
2019 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
V. Blaho;J. Chun;A. Frantz;T. Hla;Daniel Jones;Deepa Jonnalagadda;Y. Kihara;H. Mizuno;W. Moolenaar;C. Mpamhanga;S. Spiegel;Valerie Tan;Y. Yung - 通讯作者:
Y. Yung
Surface As Structure: The Multi-Touch Controller As Map Of Musical State Space
表面作为结构:多点触控控制器作为音乐状态空间的地图
- DOI:
10.5281/zenodo.850157 - 发表时间:
2012 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
O. Bown;Daniel Jones;Sam Britton - 通讯作者:
Sam Britton
Special and structured matrices in max-plus algebra
最大加代数中的特殊和结构化矩阵
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2017 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Daniel Jones - 通讯作者:
Daniel Jones
Lysophospholipid (S1P) receptors (version 2020.5) in the IUPHAR/BPS Guide to Pharmacology Database
IUPHAR/BPS 药理学指南数据库中的溶血磷脂 (S1P) 受体(版本 2020.5)
- DOI:
10.2218/gtopdb/f135/2020.5 - 发表时间:
2020 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:2.3
- 作者:
V. Blaho;J. Chun;Daniel Jones;Deepa Jonnalagadda;Y. Kihara;Valerie Tan - 通讯作者:
Valerie Tan
Daniel Jones的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Daniel Jones', 18)}}的其他基金
Conference: Rocky Mountain Geobiology Symposium 2024
会议:2024 年落基山地球生物学研讨会
- 批准号:
2417156 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 93.9万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
The Gulf Stream control of the North Atlantic carbon sink
湾流对北大西洋碳汇的控制
- 批准号:
NE/W009579/1 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
$ 93.9万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
CAREER: Do microbes form caves? Sulfide oxidation and limestone corrosion in sulfuric acid caves
职业:微生物会形成洞穴吗?
- 批准号:
2239710 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
$ 93.9万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
EAGER: DCL: SaTC: Enabling Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Inoculation vs. education: the role of real time alerts and end-user overconfidence
EAGER:DCL:SaTC:实现跨学科协作:接种与教育:实时警报和最终用户过度自信的作用
- 批准号:
2210198 - 财政年份:2022
- 资助金额:
$ 93.9万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: RESEARCH-PGR: Comparative genomics of the capitulum: deciphering the molecular basis of a key floral innovation
合作研究:RESEARCH-PGR:头状花序的比较基因组学:破译关键花卉创新的分子基础
- 批准号:
2214474 - 财政年份:2022
- 资助金额:
$ 93.9万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Seabed Mining And Resilience To EXperimental impact
海底采矿和实验影响的恢复能力
- 批准号:
NE/T003537/1 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 93.9万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Autonomous Techniques for anthropogenic Structure Ecological Assessment (AT-SEA)
人为结构生态评估自主技术(AT-SEA)
- 批准号:
NE/T010649/1 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 93.9万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
NSF Postdoctoral Fellowship in Biology FY 2019: Deciphering CLE Peptide Signaling Pathways in Sunflower (Helianthus annuus)
2019 财年 NSF 生物学博士后奖学金:破译向日葵(Helianthus annuus)中的 CLE 肽信号通路
- 批准号:
1906389 - 财政年份:2019
- 资助金额:
$ 93.9万 - 项目类别:
Fellowship Award
EVIST/HST Individual Awards
EVIST/HST 个人奖
- 批准号:
8516282 - 财政年份:1985
- 资助金额:
$ 93.9万 - 项目类别:
Interagency Agreement
American Chemists and the Geneva Protocol
美国化学家和日内瓦议定书
- 批准号:
7614312 - 财政年份:1976
- 资助金额:
$ 93.9万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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