Ice sheet and glacier stability in a warming world: Projecting future iceberg and sea level risks via rapid modelling and satellite image analysis

变暖世界中的冰盖和冰川稳定性：通过快速建模和卫星图像分析预测未来的冰山和海平面风险

基本信息

批准号：
MR/S017232/1
负责人：
James Lea
金额：
$ 102.7万
依托单位：
University of Liverpool
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FS017232%2F1
关键词：
Ice sheet glacier stability warming

项目摘要

This fellowship will transform our understanding of how the ice sheets and glaciers at both poles will contribute to future sea level change, and anticipate future iceberg risks impacting the people, businesses and governments in these regions. Building on my recent work (Lea, 2018), significant cloud computing resources will be used to facilitate automated analysis of the unprecedented volume of Arctic and Antarctic satellite imagery that is generated every day. This is the first time that analysis at such scales will be undertaken, and would be otherwise unachievable using current glacier monitoring approaches.Using results from this real-time updated analysis, a combination of new physically based and empirically based machine learning models will provide the first global assessment of glacier stability and framework to monitor this. This will allow significant improvements to short (<1 year) and long term (decadal) plans for infrastructure, industry projects and security as Arctic sea ice declines and both poles undergo major environmental changes. These factors are especially important for the UK as it impacts:- The environment and security of UK administered territories in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.- UK business making informed decisions on future project viability in polar regions, where icebergs pose a major hazard to shipping and infrastructure such as ports, rigs and subsea pipelines.- The anticipated opening of the Northwest and Northeast Passage trade routes, offering UK business opportunities to significantly reduce the length and environmental impact of shipping. The future viability of these routes due to sudden glacier retreat and changing iceberg risks will have major implications for future UK supply chains between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have highlighted that the stability of marine terminating ice margins is a major uncertainty in global sea level change projections, and by extension iceberg risk. The existing barriers to achieving a global assessment of glacier stability are that:- Current approaches to data collection (even for individual glaciers) can be extremely time intensive.- The considerable computational power required by numerical models of glacier stability limits researchers to exploring only a few potential future scenarios.Consequently only a handful of the 100s-1000s of these glaciers at each pole have been studied in detail, leaving our knowledge of future glacier and ice sheet stability woefully incomplete and poorly constrained. This fellowship's innovative image and stability analyses will directly address these challenges.Ensuring that these novel findings have impact is built in as a key objective of this fellowship. Support from project partners will allow substantial and rarely achievable levels of engagement with the UK Government on objectives highlighted in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office's recent publication 'Beyond the Ice: UK policy towards the Arctic' (2018), including: Projecting global influence; Protecting people and the environment; and Promoting prosperity. Three stakeholder events spanning the fellowship will also allow UK business to directly highlight their key concerns and help direct the generation of data products. These will be designed to allow UK business to make better informed decisions on the viability of ongoing and future projects in the polar regions.Informed decision making relating to infrastructure at key locations is also in the UK's long term interest for the successful development of future trade routes. To this end, a three month placement at the Greenland Government's geoscience consultancy (Asiaq Greenland Survey) and regular trips as part of fieldwork to Greenland's largest city and deepwater port, Nuuk, will allow regular engagement with policymakers and industry at a pivotal location for the future development of the Northwest Passage shipping route.

这项奖学金将改变我们对两极的冰盖和冰川如何为未来的海平面变化做出贡献的理解，并预测未来的冰山风险影响这些地区的人，企业和政府。在我最近的工作（LEA，2018年）的基础上，将使用大量的云计算资源来促进对每天生成的前所未有的北极和南极卫星图像的自动分析。这是第一次将在此类尺度上进行分析，否则将无法使用当前的冰川监测方法进行。使用此实时更新分析的结果，将新的基于物理和基于经验的机器学习模型的组合结合在一起，将提供对冰川稳定性和框架的首次全球评估来监测这一点。随着北极海冰的下降，两极发生重大的环境变化，这将允许对基础设施，行业项目和安全性的短期（<1年）和长期（十年）计划进行重大改进。这些因素对英国的影响尤为重要： - 英国在南极和南大洋地区管理领土的环境和安全。和运输的环境影响。由于突然的冰川撤退和冰山风险的变化，这些路线的未来可行性将对太平洋和大西洋之间的未来英国供应链产生重大影响。非政府间气候变化的政府间小组表明，海上终止冰块的稳定性在全球海平面变化的稳定性是在全球海平面变化的主要不存在的冰上变化，并通过确定的冰层变化。现有的对冰川稳定性进行全球评估的障碍是： - 当前的数据收集方法（即使是单个冰川）可能是极度密集的。薄板稳定性严重不完整且约束不佳。这项奖学金的创新形象和稳定分析将直接解决这些挑战。请确保这些新颖的发现具有影响，作为该奖学金的关键目标。项目合作伙伴的支持将允许与英国政府在外国和英联邦办公室最近出版的《超越冰：英国对北极政策》（2018年）中强调的目标的实质性和无法实现的水平，包括：投射全球影响力；保护人和环境；并促进繁荣。涉及奖学金的三场利益相关者活动还将使英国企业直接强调其主要问题并帮助指导生成数据产品。这些将旨在使英国的企业能够就极地地区正在进行和未来项目的可行性做出更好的明智性决策。与关键地点相关的基础设施的信息决策也是英国成功发展未来贸易路线的长期利益。为此，在格陵兰政府的地球科学咨询公司（Asiaq Greenland调查）和定期旅行中进行了为期三个月的安置，这是前往格陵兰最大的城市和深水港口Nuuk的实地考察的一部分，将允许在西北通道运输路线的未来开发中与政策制定者和行业进行定期互动。