Out of the frying pan into the fire: Quantitative investigation into how UK working adults manage consumer credit from crisis to crisis (2006 to 2022)

脱离煎锅入火：对英国职业成年人如何管理消费信贷从危机到危机的定量调查（2006年至2022年）

• 批准号: ES/Y007425/1
• 负责人: Isabelle Bi-Swinglehurst
• 金额: $ 14.58万
• 依托单位: University of Manchester
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FY007425%2F1
• 关键词: Out; frying; pan; into; fire

Background. The doctoral thesis explored how individual, geographical and temporal context frames the subjective and objective lived experience of financial distress within the UK, with a focus on 18- to 39-years old adults. Young adults in the UK are borrowing more credit and doing so younger than any previous generation. Consumer credit, a relatively modern phenomenon, is increasingly utilised by households, with overall household debt sitting at 127% of income in 2019. Moreover, the growth of consumer credit has outpaced GDP over the past decade (FCA, 2020). Between 2006 and 2018, the PhD thesis investigated why more than one in ten (13.5%) 18- to 39-year-olds reported facing some form of financial distress, higher than the overall adult population (9.8%). Young adults' finances are especially important as they are entering adulthood, a phase of the life course defined with coping with new responsibility and is increasingly complex and non-linear in comparison with the experiences of previous generations (Furlong et al., 2018: Arnett, 2004). Borrowing can feel inevitable as many types of personal borrowing are tied with life aspirations such as completion of education and housing independence (Houle, 2014). When the financial obligations feel unmanageable, the debt becomes problematic and can damage one's health (Sweet, 2018). Research Question, Data, and Methods. This thesis asked to what extent does carrying consumer credit reinforce and reproduce existing economic inequalities at a young age? Personal context as defined by one's personal circumstances, the time period, and the type of places one lives. To answer this question, the thesis employed quantitative methods including descriptive statistics, regression modelling, and cluster analysis, using unique geocoded longitudinal microdata - the Wealth and Assets Survey (n=250k; ONS, 2021)- covering England, Wales and Scotland from 2006 to 2018. Findings. Overall, there is evidence that adults facing difficulties managing consumer credit are not necessarily living in areas of highest deprivation. Instead, there is a growth of those individuals finding managing consumer credit challenges living in 'middling' type of neighbourhoods. The results provide evidence that the type of places where one lives has an association with their likelihood of taking on categories of personal borrowing; that some categories, but not all, of personal borrowing have an association with the timing of homeownership for young adults; and that certain patterns of consumer credit consumption are prone to be problematic. The thesis therefore supports future research to consider the importance of personal context when evaluating individual's personal finances, especially for young adults, and to stress that those who find managing consumer credit problematic can be overlooked because they live in so-called 'average' neighbourhoods. Overall, this doctoral thesis found consumer credit remains a panacea primarily for working households to weather financial downturns.Next steps. The fellowship plans to progress and to publish research in top journals on the financial realities of working households in the UK and modern conceptualisations of relative poverty; to learn from world-leading employment studies experts; to consolidate and cross-validate two secure access projects under one project; to extend the time coverage from 12 years to 16 years to include the 2020 Covid-19 crisis; to develop networks and disseminate the research to a wide range of audience both within the UK and internationally; to practice embedding impact within research; to develop critical communication and collaboration skills; and to build confidence to apply future large funding grants. These components and gained experience pave the way forward for a robust research agenda and a rich and fulfilling career in academia.

背景。该博士论文探讨了个人、地理和时间背景如何塑造英国境内财务困境的主观和客观生活经历，重点关注 18 至 39 岁的成年人。英国的年轻人正在借更多的信贷，而且比前一代人更年轻。消费信贷是一种相对现代的现象，越来越多地被家庭利用，2019 年家庭债务总额占收入的 127%。此外，过去十年消费信贷的增长超过了 GDP（FCA，2020）。 2006 年至 2018 年间，该博士论文调查了为什么超过十分之一 (13.5%) 的 18 至 39 岁的人报告面临某种形式的财务困境，高于整个成年人口 (9.8%)。年轻人的财务状况尤其重要，因为他们正在进入成年期，这是生命历程中应对新责任的一个阶段，与前几代人的经历相比，财务状况变得越来越复杂和非线性（Furlong et al., 2018：Arnett） ，2004）。借贷可能是不可避免的，因为许多类型的个人借贷与完成教育和住房独立等生活愿望息息相关（Houle，2014）。当财务义务感觉难以管理时，债务就会成为问题，并可能损害一个人的健康（Sweet，2018）。研究问题、数据和方法。本文提出的问题是，在年轻时持有消费信贷会在多大程度上强化和再现现有的经济不平等？个人背景是由一个人的个人情况、时间段和居住地点类型定义的。为了回答这个问题，论文采用了包括描述性统计、回归建模和聚类分析在内的定量方法，并使用独特的地理编码纵向微观数据——财富和资产调查（n=250k；ONS，2021）——自 2006 年起覆盖英格兰、威尔士和苏格兰到 2018 年。调查结果。总体而言，有证据表明，在管理消费信贷方面面临困难的成年人不一定生活在贫困程度最高的地区。相反，越来越多的人发现生活在“中等”类型社区的消费信贷面临挑战。结果证明，一个人居住的地方类型与他们进行个人借贷类别的可能性有关；某些类别（但不是全部）的个人借贷与年轻人拥有住房的时间有关；某些消费信贷消费模式容易出现问题。因此，本文支持未来的研究，在评估个人的个人财务状况时考虑个人背景的重要性，特别是对于年轻人来说，并强调那些发现管理消费信贷有问题的人可能会被忽视，因为他们生活在所谓的“平均”社区。总体而言，这篇博士论文发现，消费信贷仍然是工薪家庭抵御金融衰退的灵丹妙药。下一步。该奖学金计划推进并在顶级期刊上发表有关英国工薪家庭的财务现实和相对贫困的现代概念的研究；向世界领先的就业研究专家学习；整合并交叉验证一个项目下的两个安全访问项目；将时间范围从 12 年延长至 16 年，以涵盖 2020 年 Covid-19 危机；发展网络并向英国和国际范围内的广泛受众传播研究成果；在研究中实践嵌入影响力；培养关键的沟通和协作技能；并建立信心申请未来的大额资助。这些组成部分和所获得的经验为强有力的研究议程和丰富而充实的学术生涯铺平了道路。