The Politics of Science in International Climate Cooperation

国际气候合作中的科学政治

• 批准号: ES/W001373/2
• 负责人: Patrick Bayer
• 金额: $ 36.19万
• 依托单位: University of Glasgow
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FW001373%2F2
• 关键词: Politics; Science; International; Climate; Cooperation

International climate talks in Katowice, Poland, in 2018 descended into acrimony over a scientific landmark report by the most authoritative international body on climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Russia, and the United States--four big oil and gas producers--refused to endorse an IPCC special report. This report stated that limiting global warming to 1.5C reduces climate-related risks, but requires deep emission reductions in all sectors. Since these reductions are costly, governments may have political incentives to try to influence how these reports are written and used. We study how and under what conditions governments seek to influence the production of science in the IPCC; and the effects of this attempted influence on climate negotiations and domestic climate policymaking.Our research comes at a vital moment for international climate politics. In order to meet the 1.5C-2C temperature target agreed in the Paris Agreement in 2015, countries need to increase their climate action. As the pressure to decarbonise the global economy mounts, the IPCC's forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report in 2022 will provide states with the latest knowledge on the scientific basis; impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability; and mitigation of climate change. The key findings from this comprehensive assessment will serve as scientific input to United Nations climate negotiations and guide governments' climate policies for the decade to come. Despite its key role, the IPCC's 6-8 year assessment cycles have come under repeated criticism for different reasons. Our systematic study of countries' engagement with IPCC processes will hence contribute to the practical and scholarly discussion on how the IPCC can best fulfil its mandate of being policy-relevant in the new climate landscape the Paris Agreement has created.In this unique context, we will offer new theoretical and empirical insights into the strategies, conditions, and effects of attempted government influence in international climate science policy. The theoretical framework, which we will develop, will allow us to analyse governments' strategic involvement in the production of IPCC reports and their uptake in climate policymaking. While "interference" and "obstruction" at both stages is documented in the literature, our framework will help us to hypothesise how, when, and with what effects governments seek influence in the global climate science-policy interface. Our systematic empirical analysis will benefit from a mixed methods approach. We will combine qualitative and quantitative methods, including elite interviews; participant observation; comparative case studies; document analysis; regression models; and text-as-data approaches. This multifaceted approach will enrich our empirical understanding of government influence in the IPCC and will help us to overcome the methodological challenge that government influence is not always readily observable.Together with our advisory board, which includes senior IPCC leadership and assessment authors, and through partnerships with leading climate research institutes--CICERO (Center for International Climate Research) in Norway; PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in Germany; Cardiff University's Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST); and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK--we intend to create impact from translating our research findings into feasible and implementable proposals to inform ongoing discussions about IPCC reform. We will furthermore present our findings at the United Nations climate conference in winter 2023 and, over the course of the project, disseminate our research to a wider audience through blog posts, podcasts, and on social media.

2018 年在波兰卡托维兹举行的国际气候谈判因气候科学领域最权威的国际机构政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 一份具有里程碑意义的科学报告而陷入激烈争吵。沙特阿拉伯、科威特、俄罗斯和美国这四大石油和天然气生产国拒绝认可政府间气候变化专门委员会的特别报告。该报告指出，将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度可以减少与气候相关的风险，但需要所有部门大幅减排。由于这些削减成本高昂，政府可能有政治​​动机试图影响这些报告的编写和使用方式。我们研究政府如何以及在什么条件下寻求影响 IPCC 的科学生产；以及这种尝试影响对气候谈判和国内气候政策制定的影响。我们的研究正值国际气候政治的关键时刻。为了实现2015年《巴黎协定》商定的1.5℃-2℃气温目标，各国需要加大气候行动力度。随着全球经济脱碳压力不断加大，IPCC即将于2022年发布的第六次评估报告将为各国提供有科学依据的最新知识；影响、适应和脆弱性；和减缓气候变化。这项综合评估的主要结果将作为联合国气候谈判的科学投入，并指导各国政府未来十年的气候政策。尽管发挥着关键作用，IPCC 6-8 年的评估周期却因不同原因而屡遭批评。因此，我们对各国参与 IPCC 进程的系统研究将有助于就 IPCC 如何在《巴黎协定》创造的新气候格局中最好地履行其与政策相关的使命进行实际和学术讨论。在这种独特的背景下，我们将为政府试图影响国际气候科学政策的策略、条件和效果提供新的理论和实证见解。我们将开发的理论框架将使我们能够分析政府对IPCC报告制作的战略参与及其对气候政策制定的吸收。虽然文献中记录了这两个阶段的“干扰”和“阻碍”，但我们的框架将帮助我们假设政府如何、何时以及以何种效果寻求在全球气候科学政策界面中的影响力。我们的系统实证分析将受益于混合方法。我们会结合定性和定量的方法，包括精英访谈；参与观察；比较案例研究；文件分析；回归模型；和文本即数据方法。这种多方面的方法将丰富我们对政府在 IPCC 中影响力的实证理解，并将帮助我们克服政府影响力并不总是容易观察到的方法论挑战。与我们的顾问委员会（包括 IPCC 高级领导和评估作者）一起，并通过合作伙伴关系与领先的气候研究机构——挪威CICERO（国际气候研究中心）合作；德国 PIK（波茨坦气候影响研究所）；卡迪夫大学气候变化和社会转型中心（CAST）；和英国廷德尔气候变化研究中心——我们打算通过将我们的研究成果转化为可行和可实施的提案来产生影响，为正在进行的有关 IPCC 改革的讨论提供信息。此外，我们还将在 2023 年冬季联合国气候会议上展示我们的研究结果，并在项目过程中通过博客文章、播客和社交媒体向更广泛的受众传播我们的研究成果。