The effects of business and payroll taxes on firms and workers: evidence from linked employer-employee data

商业税和工资税对公司和工人的影响：来自雇主-雇员相关数据的证据

• 批准号: ES/R005745/1
• 负责人: Uta Schoenberg
• 金额: $ 102.12万
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FR005745%2F1
• 关键词: effects; business; payroll; taxes; firms

While the average rate of corporation tax amongst OECD countries was close to 50 percent in the early 1980's, it had fallen to below 25 percent by 2015. Moreover, competition to attract inward investment through cuts in business and payroll taxes is likely to intensify in the near future. In the UK, Prime Minister Theresa May has suggested that Britain is to have the lowest corporate tax rate among the world's 20 largest economies, and in the US, President Donald Trump is seeking a dramatic reduction in the rate of corporation tax to around 15 percent. Advocates of a reduction in business or payroll taxes argue that it will lead to an increase in firm profits and thereby affect firms' location decisions and hence employment levels. Opponents, on the other hand, claim that such taxes are shifted either onto workers' wages or consumer prices, and hence will not alter firms' location decisions. Even if tax reductions have a positive effect on employment, governments might face a trade-off between job creation and tax revenues; while business and payroll taxes may indirectly boost tax revenues through increased employment and wages, they directly reduce tax revenues. Unless the indirect positive effects dominate the direct negative effects, tax reductions will result in a decrease in tax revenues and public spending. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the overall effects on employment, wages and tax revenues of cutting taxes levied on businesses is crucial for governments to make informed policy choices. This project aims to improve our understanding of firms' adjustments in response to changes in two types of taxes levied on firms: business taxes (levied on profits) and payroll taxes. Employing rare and detailed administrative data linking firms and workers and following them over a prolonged period of time, we will analyse the causal effects of changes in business and payroll taxes on firm adjustments, including the demand for labour (hiring and firing), wages, investments, product price setting, firm entry and exit. Furthermore, we will look at whether workers respond by migrating. Based on our thorough understanding of the responses of firms and workers, we will simulate the overall effects of business and payroll tax changes on tax revenues, taking into account both the direct and indirect effects.A particular strength of our analysis, besides using unusually rich longitudinal administrative data on firms and workers, is the proposed research designs. We exploit policy changes induced by national-level regulations that generated tax changes of different magnitudes across local labour markets. These changes were unrelated to local economic conditions, and our research designs hence allow us to separate out the causal effects of tax changes from confounding factors.The scientific output of the proposed research is aimed at publication in top academic journals, and we expect our contributions to significantly advance the academic debate on business and payroll taxation, firm behaviour and labour market outcomes of workers. Moreover, a thorough understanding of the overall effects on employment and tax revenues of cutting business and payroll taxes is crucial for governments to make informed policy choices. We expect the results from our proposed research to have direct policy relevance to governments, the business community as well as to central banks, and international institutions such as the EU, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the World Bank, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and NGO's.

虽然 OECD 国家的平均公司税税率在 1980 年代初接近 50%，但到 2015 年已降至 25% 以下。此外，通过削减商业税和工资税来吸引外来投资的竞争可能会加剧不久的将来。在英国，首相特蕾莎·梅建议英国的企业税率要成为全球20个最大经济体中最低的；而在美国，唐纳德·特朗普总统则寻求将企业税率大幅降低至15%左右。 。减少商业税或工资税的支持者认为，这将导致公司利润增加，从而影响公司的选址决策，从而影响就业水平。另一方面，反对者声称此类税收要么转移到工人工资上，要么转移到消费者价格上，因此不会改变企业的选址决策。即使减税对就业产生积极影响，政府也可能面临创造就业机会和税收收入之间的权衡；虽然商业税和工资税可以通过增加就业和工资来间接增加税收收入，但它们会直接减少税收收入。除非间接积极影响超过直接消极影响，否则减税将导致税收收入和公共支出减少。因此，全面了解减税对企业征税对就业、工资和税收的总体影响对于政府做出明智的政策选择至关重要。该项目旨在提高我们对企业针对企业征收的两类税种变化进行调整的理解：营业税（对利润征收）和工资税。利用罕见而详细的连接企业和工人的行政数据，并对其进行长期跟踪，我们将分析商业税和工资税变化对企业调整的因果影响，包括劳动力需求（雇用和解雇）、工资、投资、产品价格设定、企业进入和退出。此外，我们还将研究工人是否会通过迁移来应对。基于我们对企业和工人反应的透彻理解，我们将模拟企业和工资税变化对税收收入的总体影响，同时考虑直接和间接影响。除了使用异常丰富的数据外，我们分析的一个特殊优势关于公司和工人的纵向行政数据是拟议的研究设计。我们利用国家级法规引发的政策变化，这些法规在当地劳动力市场上产生了不同程度的税收变化。这些变化与当地经济状况无关，因此我们的研究设计使我们能够将税收变化的因果影响与混杂因素分开。拟议研究的科学成果旨在在顶级学术期刊上发表，我们期望我们的贡献显着推进关于商业和工资税、企业行为和工人劳动力市场结果的学术辩论。此外，彻底了解削减商业税和工资税对就业和税收收入的总体影响对于政府做出明智的政策选择至关重要。我们期望我们拟议的研究结果能够与政府、商界以及中央银行和国际机构（例如欧盟、经济合作与发展组织（OECD）、世界银行、国际货币基金组织（IMF）和非政府组织。

项目成果

Do place-based tax incentives create jobs?

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104105
• 发表时间: 2020-11-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• 影响因子: 9.8
• 作者: Ku, Hyejin;Schonberg, Uta;Schreiner, Ragnhild C.
• 通讯作者: Schreiner, Ragnhild C.

Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes

超越树木：利用机器学习来估计最低工资对劳动力市场结果的影响

• DOI: 10.3386/w28399
• 作者: Cengiz D

Does Minimum Wage Increase Labor Productivity? Evidence from Piece Rate Workers

最低工资会提高劳动生产率吗？

• DOI: 10.1086/716347
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Labor Economics
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Ku H