Real-time and seasonal forecasting of wheat rust epidemics to inform surveillance and control: Ethiopia as a LMIC test case

小麦锈病流行病的实时和季节性预测为监测和控制提供信息：埃塞俄比亚作为中低收入国家的测试案例

• 批准号: BB/P023193/1
• 负责人: Christopher Gilligan
• 金额: $ 46.58万
• 依托单位: University of Cambridge
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=BB%2FP023193%2F1
• 关键词: Real; time; seasonal; forecasting; wheat

Wheat rusts are fungal diseases that can cause devastating losses to wheat crops. The fungal spores are dispersed by the wind with the potential to cause a rapid spread of a wheat rust outbreak. Whilst fungicides to control the spread of wheat rust are available they need to be applied in a timely manner in order to be effective. Failure to do so can lead to the loss of crops with the added economic costs of wasted fungicide. Wheat rust infects the crop causing the death of the plant and therefore a reduction in the wheat produced in a region; this affects both an individual growers livelihood and on a wider scale the costs incurred as a government imports wheat to supplement in-country wheat produce.Wheat is a staple food in Ethiopia, as it is in many countries in the world. Ethiopia is also the major wheat producer in sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, outbreaks of wheat rusts have a major impact on the wheat available in the region. The Government of Ethiopia has committed to becoming self-sufficient in wheat by 2020. To meet this policy goal and ensure food security, production losses, such as those due to wheat rusts, must be minimised. The proposed work aims to contribute to this goal by implementing a wheat rust forecasting system in collaboration with the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR).The proposed work will combine expertise on modelling plant diseases at the University of Cambridge, expertise on modelling releases of particles into the atmosphere at the UK Met Office with expertise within Ethiopia at CIMMYT and EIAR to develop a world-leading, wheat rust forecasting service. Information on the location of initial sites of wheat rusts in Ethiopia will be sent to the UK Met Office. This information will be collated from surveillance surveys and from farmer reports using mobile smart-phone technology. The UK Met Office will use forecast data from its state-of-the-art global weather forecast model together with the source information and protocols for spore dispersal developed with the University of Cambridge to forecast the large-scale wind-dispersion of the wheat rust spores. The University of Cambridge's epidemiological model will use the outputs to model the smaller-scale spread of the rusts. This, together with an assessment of the suitability of an area for wheat rust, will be used to produce a forecast risk map (where is the pathogen likely to occur?) and a hazard map (how rapidly will it spread and cause losses once introduced).The development of products, such as wheat rust forecast risk maps, will be done in consultation with EIAR to ensure that they contain the most useful information for their onward use. EIAR will develop methods to make best use of the forecasts for advising the Ethiopian Government and farmers in order to prepare for potential wheat rust outbreaks and to enable them to take action to prevent the loss of crops. The proposed work includes workshops, exchanges and training to aid capacity building and exploitation of the wheat rust forecasting service. In doing so, strong links between the Ethiopian and UK organisations will provide a basis for further development to support other wind-borne agricultural diseases and demonstrate the value of such a system for other counties.

小麦锈病是真菌疾病，可能造成毁灭性的小麦作物损失。真菌孢子被风散布，有可能引起小麦锈病爆发的迅速传播。尽管可以及时使用杀菌剂来控制麦芽生锈的扩散，以便有效。否则，随着浪费杀菌剂的增加经济成本，可能导致农作物的流失。小麦生锈感染了农作物，导致植物的死亡，因此减少了一个地区生产的小麦；这会影响一个个体种植者生计，并且在更广泛的规模上，由于政府进口小麦以补充国内小麦的农产品而产生的成本。小麦是埃塞俄比亚的主食，就像世界上许多国家一样。埃塞俄比亚也是撒哈拉以南非洲的主要小麦生产商。因此，小麦锈蚀爆发对该地区可用的小麦产生了重大影响。埃塞俄比亚政府已承诺到2020年在小麦中变得自给自足。要实现这一政策目标，并确保必须将粮食安全，生产损失（例如由于小麦锈病造成的生产损失），必须最小化。拟议的工作旨在通过与埃塞俄比亚农业研究所（EIAR）合作实施小麦生锈的预测系统（EIAR）来为这一目标做出贡献。拟议中的工作将结合剑桥大学建模植物疾病的专业知识，在剑桥大学建模植物疾病，在UK内部与Ethiapia interial cimmyopia interiase cimmyopia interiase cimmypia interiase commyopia commypia commypia commypia interia and cimmypia interia commyopia的专业知识相结合。预测服务。有关埃塞俄比亚小麦锈病初始地点位置的信息将发送到英国大都会办公室。这些信息将从监视调查和使用移动智能手机技术的农民报告中整理。英国大都会办公室将使用其最先进的全球天气预测模型中的预测数据，以及剑桥大学开发的孢子分散的来源信息和协议，以预测小麦锈孢子的大规模风能。剑桥大学的流行病学模型将使用输出来建模锈蚀量较小。这将使用该区域对小麦生锈的适用性进行评估，可用于生成预测风险图（病原体可能在哪里发生？）和危险图（它将在引入一旦引入一旦引入损失的速度和损失）。产品的开发，例如小麦锈的预测型图，以确保与EAIR一起使用最有用的使用信息，以确保使用最有用的信息。 EIAR将开发最佳利用预测的方法，以建议埃塞俄比亚政府和农民为潜在的麦芽生锈爆发做准备，并使他们能够采取行动以防止庄稼流失。拟议的工作包括研讨会，交流和培训，以帮助能力建设以及对小麦锈的预测服务的开发。在此过程中，埃塞俄比亚组织与英国组织之间的牢固联系将为进一步发展提供基础，以支持其他风传播农业疾病，并证明这种系统对其他县的价值。

项目成果

Wheat rust epidemics damage Ethiopian wheat production: A decade of field disease surveillance reveals national-scale trends in past outbreaks.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245697
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: PloS one
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Meyer M;Bacha N;Tesfaye T;Alemayehu Y;Abera E;Hundie B;Woldeab G;Girma B;Gemechu A;Negash T;Mideksa T;Smith J;Jaleta M;Hodson D;Gilligan CA
• 通讯作者: Gilligan CA

An early warning system to predict and mitigate wheat rust diseases in Ethiopia.

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4034
• 发表时间: 2019-10-30
• 期刊: Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]
• 作者: Allen-Sader C;Thurston W;Meyer M;Nure E;Bacha N;Alemayehu Y;Stutt ROJH;Safka D;Craig AP;Derso E;Burgin LE;Millington SC;Hort MC;Hodson DP;Gilligan CA
• 通讯作者: Gilligan CA