A spatial extremes framework for predicting subdaily rainfall intensity

预测次日降雨强度的空间极值框架

• 批准号: DP150100411
• 负责人: Prof Seth Westra
• 金额: $ 18.57万
• 依托单位: The University of Adelaide
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2018-12-10
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP150100411
• 关键词: spatial; extremes; framework; predicting; subdaily

Climate change is causing extreme rainfall intensity to increase globally. The greatest increases occur for short-duration storms lasting up to several hours, bringing a heightened risk of flash-floods that are often extremely hazardous due to their rapid onset. The project aims to develop a new spatial extreme value framework to predict extreme rainfall patterns, using insights on future changes to rainfall triggering mechanisms (e.g. convective, frontal or orographic). The research aims to provide projections in the form of intensity-frequency-duration curves, areal reduction factors and antecedent rainfall depths. Engineers are expected to use this information to design infrastructure and urban planning policies to adapt to future flood risk.

气候变化导致极端降雨强度在全球增加。持续数小时的短期风暴发生的最大增加发生了，这带来了闪光液的风险增加，由于它们的快速发作，这些风险通常非常危险。该项目旨在开发一个新的空间极值框架来预测极端的降雨模式，利用对未来降雨触发机制变化的见解（例如对流，额叶或地形）。该研究的目的是以强度频率持续曲线，降低因子和先前的降雨深度的形式提供预测。预计工程师将使用此信息来设计基础设施和城市规划政策，以适应未来的洪水风险。