Simulating the impact of a menthol ban in the US; translating the Canadian model

模拟美国薄荷醇禁令的影响；

• 批准号: 10505590
• 负责人: Shehzad Ali
• 金额: $ 20.26万
• 依托单位: CENTRE FOR ADDICTION AND MENTAL HEALTH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-15 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10505590
• 关键词: Address; Advisory Committees; Age; American; Behavior; Canada; Cigarette; Costs and Benefits; Country; Data; Development; Flavoring; Funding; Goals; Health; Health Care Costs; Incidence; Intention; International; Knowledge; Longitudinal Studies; Masks; Menthol; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Morbidity - disease rate; Ontario; Outcome; Policies; Population; Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health; Prevalence; Probability; Process; Public Health; Race; Regulation; Relative Risks; Research Personnel; Review Literature; Sales; Sensory; Smoker; Smoking Behavior; Smoking Status; Socioeconomic Status; Subgroup; Surveys; Taste Perception; Time; Tobacco; Tobacco Use Cessation; Translating; Translations; Traumeel S; United States; United States Food and Drug Administration; United States National Institutes of Health; Work; Youth; base; behavior change; cigarette smoking; cohort; demographics; expectation; future implementation; models and simulation; mortality; outcome prediction; predictive modeling; recruit; sex; smoking cessation; smoking prevalence; societal costs

PROJECT SUMMARY Menthol cigarettes comprise a substantial portion of the American cigarette market with prevalence estimates reaching about 35% (FTC, 2016). Menthol is a flavouring agent added to cigarettes that masks the taste of tobacco, induces sensory effects, and recruits and retains smokers. After a thorough literature review, a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee noted that banning menthol cigarettes would benefit public health and announced intentions to regulate the sale of menthol in tobacco in November 2019. However, in order to regulate menthol cigarettes, the FDA requires evidence on the expected impact of regulating menthol and real world knowledge on the process of implementation. This study will use two NIH/TRS funded longitudinal studies, the PATH in the US, and a cohort of smokers from Ontario, Canada to develop a simulation model predicting how the Canadian ban, one of the only evaluated national level implemented menthol ban in the world, would be reflected in the US given differences in age, sex, race, menthol use, and expectations of change of behaviour. The goal of this project is to estimates of the impact of the Canadian menthol ban to predict the impact of menthol regulations in the US on smoking cessation, health outcomes, and health costs.

项目概要 根据流行率估计，薄荷醇卷烟占美国卷烟市场的很大一部分 达到约 35%（FTC，2016）。薄荷醇是一种添加到香烟中的调味剂，可以掩盖香烟的味道 烟草，引起感官效应，招募并留住吸烟者。经过彻底的文献回顾后，美国 美国食品和药物管理局 (FDA) 咨询委员会指出，禁止薄荷卷烟将受益 公共卫生，并于 2019 年 11 月宣布有意监管烟草中薄荷醇的销售。 然而，为了监管薄荷卷烟，FDA 需要证据证明薄荷卷烟的预期影响 规范薄荷醇和现实世界知识的实施过程。本研究将使用两个 NIH/TRS 资助了纵向研究、美国的 PATH 以及来自加拿大安大略省的一组吸烟者 开发一个模拟模型来预测加拿大禁令如何评估，这是唯一评估的国家级禁令之一 鉴于年龄、性别、种族的差异，世界范围内实施的薄荷醇禁令将在美国得到体现 薄荷醇的使用以及行为改变的期望。该项目的目标是估计 加拿大薄荷醇禁令预测美国薄荷醇法规对戒烟、健康的影响 结果和健康成本。