Novel Assessments of the Health Impacts of Tropical Cyclones

热带气旋对健康影响的新评估

• 批准号: 10351159
• 负责人: Robbie M Parks
• 金额: $ 10.39万
• 依托单位: COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-02-01 至 2024-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10351159
• 关键词: Acute; Address; Algorithms; Area; Award; Bayesian Analysis; Bayesian Forecast; Bayesian Modeling; Big Data; Canes; Case Study; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Chronic; Collaborations; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Computer Vision Systems; County; Data; Data Science; Data Sources; Death Rate; Demographic Factors; Disasters; Disease; Economic Factors; Environment; Environmental Epidemiology; Environmental Hazards; Environmental Health; Epidemiologist; Epidemiology; Exposure to; Failure; Goals; Growth; Hazard Models; Health; Hospitalization; Housing; Human; Hurricane; Image; Imagery; Infrastructure; Injury; Knowledge; Lead; Machine Learning; Measures; Medicare; Medicare/Medicaid; Mental Health; Mentorship; Methodology; Mission; Modeling; Molds; Names; National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences; Neighborhoods; Outcome; Phase; Policies; Public Health; Reading; Reporting; Research; Respiratory Disease; Societies; Strategic Planning; Stress; Techniques; Time; Training; United States; United States National Center for Health Statistics; Variant; base; career; climate disaster; cohort; community-level factor; cost; design; environmental disparity; environmental health disparity; environmental justice; experience; health assessment; health difference; health inequalities; hospitalization rates; improved; mortality; neglect; neural network; novel; programs; skills; social epidemiology; social factors; social inequality; spatiotemporal; trend; vulnerable community

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT In the United States, tropical cyclones, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, have a devastating impact on society. However, beyond some limited studies, there remains a critical research gap in understanding the full extent of the impact of tropical cyclones on health. The objective of this K99/R00 application is to fill this research gap with several novel assessments of the health impacts of tropical cyclones. To be able to fulfil this objective, this K99/R00 application is interdisciplinary, involving the collaboration of experts in environmental epidemiology, exposure assessment, Bayesian statistics, machine learning, computer vision, and social epidemiology. The K99 phase is designed to augment the candidate's prior research experience through coursework, mentorship, and directed readings, with specific training in (1) climate-related disaster epidemiology and exposure assessment; (2) advanced Bayesian statistics methodology; (3) machine learning and computer vision for public health; and (4) social epidemiology in a disaster and public health context. The skills gained during this award are critical to the candidate's long-term goal to become a leading and methodologically strong environmental epidemiologist who conducts rigorous large-scale research that contributes to society's understanding of tropical cyclones and other environmental hazards to help inform policies in the United States and worldwide. The proposed project will draw on rich data sources on hospitalization (Medicare and Medicaid cohorts); death (National Center for Health Statistics); tropical cyclone exposure; and satellite- and ground-based imagery, all of which span several recent decades and cover all of the United States exposed to tropical cyclones. Aim 1 (K99 phase) will improve and harmonize estimation of excess hospitalizations and deaths after each named hurricane by (a) applying an ensemble of Bayesian models to hospitalization and mortality data to estimate weekly hospitalization and deaths rates that would have been expected had hurricane exposure not occurred; then (b) comparing the actual historical hospitalization and death rates to calculate excess hospitalizations and deaths. Aim 2 (R00 phase) will (a) determine the impact of repeated tropical cyclone exposure on chronic health outcomes by analyzing the association between tropical cyclone exposure and monthly hospitalizations or deaths by applying Bayesian spatio-temporal hazard models; then (b) accurately forecast health impacts by using results. Aim 3 (R00 phase) will characterize how physical neighborhood features explain differences in health impacts of tropical cyclones by (a) utilizing machine learning and computer vision techniques to identify various physical neighborhood features in tropical cyclone-exposed areas using satellite and street-level imagery; then (b) converting features into metrics in health models to investigate if and how health impacts of tropical cyclones vary by those metrics. The proposed training and research program both closely align with NIEHS's mission and Strategic Plan, and is responsive to NIEHS's priorities of Data Science and Big Data (Theme I, Goal 7), Environmental Health Disparities and Environmental Justice (Theme II, Goal 4), and Emerging Environmental Health Issues (Theme II, Goal 5).

项目摘要/摘要 在美国，飓风和热带风暴等热带气旋对 社会。但是，除了一些有限的研究之外，还存在关键的研究差距 热带气旋对健康的影响程度。该K99/R00应用的目的是填写这项研究 对热带气旋的健康影响的几项新颖评估的差距。为了实现这个目标， 该K99/R00应用程序是跨学科的，涉及环境流行病学专家的合作， 暴露评估，贝叶斯统计，机器学习，计算机视觉和社会流行病学。 K99 阶段旨在通过课程，Mentalship和 定向阅读，并在（1）气候相关的灾难流行病学和暴露评估中进行了具体培训； （2）先进的贝叶斯统计方法； （3）公共卫生的机器学习和计算机愿景；和 （4）在灾难和公共卫生环境中的社会流行病学。在此奖项中获得的技能对 候选人的长期目标是成为领先且方法上强大的环境流行病学家 谁进行了严格的大规模研究，这有助于社会对热带气旋和 其他环境危害有助于为美国和全球的政策提供信息。拟议的项目 将利用有关住院的丰富数据来源（Medicare和Medicaid同伙）；死亡（国家国家中心 健康统计）；热带气旋暴露；以及卫星和地面图像，所有图像跨越了几个 近几十年来，覆盖了美国所有暴露于热带气旋的美国。 AIM 1（K99阶段）将改善 并协调对每种命名飓风过后的过量住院和死亡的估计 贝叶斯模型的整合到住院和死亡率数据，以估计每周住院和 如果未发生飓风暴露，预计会预期的死亡率；然后（b）比较实际 历史住院和死亡率，以计算过量的住院和死亡。目标2（R00阶段） （a）通过分析来确定重复的热带气旋暴露对慢性健康结果的影响 通过应用贝叶斯，热带气旋暴露与每月住院或死亡之间的关联 时空危害模型；然后（b）通过使用结果准确预测健康的影响。目标3（R00阶段） 将表征物理邻居特征如何解释热带气旋对健康影响的差异 （a）利用机器学习和计算机视觉技术来识别各种物理邻居特征 使用卫星和街道图像的热带气旋暴露区域；然后（b）将功能转换为指标 健康模型，以研究热带气旋的健康是否因这些指标而变化。提议 培训和研究计划都与NIEHS的使命和战略计划紧密保持一致，并且反应迅速 对于NIEHS的数据科学和大数据（主题I，目标7），环境健康差异和 环境正义（主题II，目标4）和新兴的环境健康问题（主题II，目标5）。