Exchange rate regime choice and economic performances: An empirical study using microeconometric methods

汇率制度选择与经济表现：微观计量经济学方法的实证研究

• 批准号: 23730302
• 负责人: ESAKA Taro
• 金额: $ 2.08万
• 依托单位: Kobe City University of Foreign Studies
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2011 至 2013
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-23730302/
• 关键词: 国際金融; 為替制度; 経済パフォーマンス; 通貨危機; 投機攻撃; 内生性; 内生性問題; マッチング法; ミクロ計量経済学; 資本自由化

This study evaluates the effects of exchange rate regimes on economic performances using microeconometric methods. Especially, I investigate whether deviations of actual exchange rate regimes from announced regimes affect the occurrence of currency crises using matching methods. I find that countries with consistent pegs (i.e., a policy in which countries actually adopt announced pegged regimes) have a significantly lower probability of currency crises than countries with other exchange rate policies. More interestingly, I find that countries with consistent pegs have a significantly lower probability of currency crises than those with a fear of announcing a peg policy (i.e., a policy in which countries actually adopt pegged regimes but do not claim to have pegged regimes). Therefore, I statistically confirm that deviations of actual exchange rate regimes from announced regimes significantly affect the occurrence of currency crises.

本研究利用微观计量经济学方法评估汇率制度对经济绩效的影响。特别是，我使用匹配方法研究了实际汇率制度与公布汇率制度的偏差是否会影响货币危机的发生。我发现实行一致钉住汇率政策的国家（即各国实际采用已宣布的钉住汇率制度的政策）比实行其他汇率政策的国家发生货币危机的可能性要低得多。更有趣的是，我发现坚持钉住汇率制度的国家发生货币危机的可能性明显低于那些害怕宣布钉住汇率政策（即各国实际上采用钉住汇率制度但不声称拥有钉住汇率制度的政策）的国家。因此，我从统计上证实，实际汇率制度与公布的汇率制度的偏差对货币危机的发生有显着影响。

项目成果

Are consistent pegs really more prone to currency crises? An analysis using matching estimators

一致的钉住汇率制度真的更容易引发货币危机吗？

• 发表时间: 2012
• 作者: 家森信善;浅井義裕;高久賢也;江阪太郎
• 通讯作者: 江阪太郎

Evaluating the effect of de facto pegs on currency crises

评估事实上的盯住汇率对货币危机的影响

• 发表时间: 2013
• 期刊: Journal of Policy Modeling
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Esaka;Taro
• 通讯作者: Taro

Do Hard Pegs Avoid Currency Crises? An Evaluation Using Matching Estimators

硬钉住能否避免货币危机？

• 发表时间: 2011
• 期刊: Economics Letters
• 影响因子: 2
• 作者: Li Li;Atsushi Tsunekawa;Mitsuru Tsubo;Atsushi Koike and Jijun Wang;碓井健寛;浅田義久;T Esaka
• 通讯作者: T Esaka