Development of a New Keynesian Econometric Model

新凯恩斯计量经济模型的发展

• 批准号: 23530297
• 负责人: OZAKI Taiyo
• 金额: $ 2.83万
• 依托单位: Kyoto Gakuen University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2011 至 2013
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-23530297/
• 关键词: ECM; global model; forward looking; game thoretic simulation; new Keynesian model; error correction model; forward looking model; Error Correction; Macroeconometric; Global Model; Translog; Macroeconometrics; Global

We discuss the development of a small global macroeconometric model involving 5 nations/areas: US, Japan, EU, China and Korea. The model has the typical features of a new Keynesian macroeconomic model, including the effects of both short-term demand shocks and long-term equilibrium conditions. Several simulation analyses indicate that the multiplier of the fiscal expansion is 1.4~1.6. US, Japan and EU have a larger impact on China and Korea. The reverse is not true even though China has become the second largest economy; indeed, the effects are quite asymmetrical.We examined the impacts of the exchange rate policy on GDP under the game theoretical framework. Against the commonly accepted story that the coordination can always yield gains, we found that the optimal exchange rate policy differs by game type and the characteristics of the economy, especially how the country depends on the trade.

我们讨论了一个涉及5个国家/地区的全球小宏观经济学模型的发展：美国，日本，欧盟，中国和韩国。该模型具有新的凯恩斯宏观经济模型的典型特征，包括短期需求冲击和长期平衡条件的影响。几个仿真分析表明，财政膨胀的乘数为1.4〜1.6。美国，日本和欧盟对中国和韩国产生了更大的影响。即使中国已成为第二大经济体，情况也不是真的。确实，效果是不对称的。我们研究了游戏理论框架下的汇率政策对GDP的影响。在公认的故事中，协调始终可以产生收益，我们发现，最佳汇率政策因游戏类型和经济特征而有所不同，尤其是该国如何依赖贸易。

项目成果

A Note on the New Keynesian Macroeconometriic Model

关于新凯恩斯主义宏观经济模型的注解

• 发表时间: 2012

Game Theoretical Simulation Using a Small Global Econometric Model

使用小型全球计量经济模型的博弈论模拟

• 发表时间: 2013
• 作者: 大沢真知子・盧回男;福島淑彦;山本勲・黒田祥子;福島淑彦;金明中;Taiyo OZAKI;山本勲・黒田祥子;金明中;Taiyo OZAKI
• 通讯作者: Taiyo OZAKI

Simulation Analysis of China using Asian Link Model

使用亚洲链接模型对中国进行模拟分析

• 发表时间: 2011
• 作者: 大沢真知子;金明中;尾崎タイヨ;Taiyo OZAKI
• 通讯作者: Taiyo OZAKI

A New Keynesian Macroeconometric Model and the Estimation of the VAT hike of Japan

新凯恩斯主义宏观计量模型与日本增值税上调的预估

• 发表时间: 2013
• 期刊: 京都学園大学経済学部論集
• 作者: Kato;M.;Honjo;Y;Machiko Osawa;Yoshihiko Fukushima;坂本和靖・山本勲;Taiyo Ozaki
• 通讯作者: Taiyo Ozaki

Game Theoretical Simulations of the Exchange Rate Policy

汇率政策的博弈论模拟

• 发表时间: 2014
• 期刊: The Journal of Econometric Study of Northeast Asia
• 作者: Honjo;Y.;Ikeda;Y.;Isamu Yamamoto;福島淑彦;金明中;Taiyo OZAKI;Isamu Yamamoto;福島淑彦;金明中;本庄裕司;Yukako Ono and Isamu Yamamoto;Taiyo OZAKI
• 通讯作者: Taiyo OZAKI