Evaluation System for the Transport Infrastructure Development Based on a Multi-regional Econometric Model with Regional Price Differentials.

基于区域价格差异的多区域计量经济模型的交通基础设施发展评价体系。

基本信息

批准号：
05555150
负责人：
ANDO Asao
金额：
$ 1.79万
依托单位：
Tohoku University (1994-1995)Kumamoto University (1993)
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Developmental Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
1993
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1993 至 1995
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The study is aimed at developing the tool to evaluate the impacts of largescale transport improvements on regional economies. We have been working on the model which primarily intended to describe the Chinese economy.(1)The initial model involves very complicated iterative procedures. We revised the computational procedure of the model to simplify its coding, and calculate the benchmark equilibrium for the new base year of 1987. The comparisons of our results with the Peking table and the interim interregional table available for that year are reported in Chapter 4.(2)The initial model is intended to calculate prices and quantities that attain the network equilibrium. In this regard, the model shares the similar goal as the CGE model though it considers only a part of equilibrium conditions. Thus we rebuilt the model as a multi-regional CGE model.(3)To help understanding the basic framework of the model, the simplified model for a closed economy consisting from firms, transport firms and households is presented in Chapter 2. It is shown that the equilibrium conditions for the problem are fully consistent with the interregional input-output system.(4)The full model that incorporates the public sector, foreign countries, and savings-investment behavior is presented in Chapter 3 with consideration of the availability of Chinese statistics. The possible modifications to the model that correspond to the alternative sets of endogenous variables are also discussed.(5)The model framework is applied to the assessment of economic losses caused by the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake. This version of the model, presented in Chapter 5, considers the equilibrium only in the quantity sphere as the price changes due to the transport interruption were minimal. In return, three transport modes are introduced to closely examine the effects of the damages in transport facilities.

该研究旨在开发该工具，以评估大型运输改善对区域经济的影响。我们一直在研究该模型，该模型主要旨在描述中国经济。（1）最初的模型涉及非常复杂的迭代程序。我们修改了模型的计算过程，以简化其编码，并计算1987年新的基准年的基准平衡。我们的结果与北京表的比较和该年度可用的区域间表的比较是在第4章中报告的。在这方面，该模型与CGE模型相似，尽管它仅考虑了平衡条件的一部分。因此，我们将模型重建为多区域CGE模型。（3）为了帮助理解该模型的基本框架，第2章中介绍了由公司，运输公司和家庭组成的封闭经济的简化模型。问题的平衡条件表明，该问题的平衡条件完全一致，该模型与全国构成了整个模型。考虑中国统计数据的可用性。还讨论了与内源性变量替代集合的模型的可能修改。（5）模型框架应用于汉辛 - 阿瓦吉地震引起的经济损失的评估。该版本的模型（在第5章中介绍）仅考虑到数量球的平衡，因为由于运输中断而导致的价格变化是最小的。作为回报，引入了三种运输模式，以密切检查运输设施中损坏的影响。