Improving the uncertainty of plate boundary processes using an integrated paleoseismology approach

使用综合古地震学方法改善板块边界过程的不确定性

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-05641
• 负责人: Pilarczyk, Jessica
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: Simon Fraser University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=751173
• 关键词: Improving; uncertainty; plate; boundary; processes

Coastal hazards pose risk to many of the world's most populated centers. Lessons learned in the wake of recent earthquakes (2011 Tohoku) and tsunamis (2004 Indian Ocean) provide valuable insight into the intensity of events that can be expected in the future. However, long-term patterns of recurrence and intensity remain unclear as a result of the short (decadal to centennial long) instrumental record. Short-term records are not typically sufficient in capturing complete earthquake cycles and fall short of accurately identifying seismic risk. The motivation for the proposed research program is therefore to use paleoseismology (the study of past earthquakes and tsunamis preserved in the geologic record) to understand plate boundary processes that have occurred over the last centuries to millennia, and to use this new information to inform models that can be used to forecast the seismic risk to coastal communities. Over the next five years, the research program aims to: (1) investigate the link between strike-slip earthquakes and tsunami generation, and (2) assess the long-term patterns of slow slip events (SSEs) and their link to earthquake forecasting along subduction zones. A suite of field, laboratory, statistical, and modeling techniques will be used to achieve the objectives in a series of individual studies designed for graduate- and undergraduate-level research. This research capitalizes on expertise in paleoseismology, modeling, and chronology by drawing on established collaborations with government and academic institutions in New Zealand (e.g., GNS Science), Japan (e.g., Geological Survey of Japan), and Europe (e.g., Maynooth University). Individual studies involve fieldwork in Indonesia and New Zealand to collect new sedimentological information regarding past earthquakes and tsunamis. Collectively, these studies will enhance our ability to assess the risk of previously unconsidered tsunami sources, and improve our earthquake-forecasting ability along subduction zones. The improved understanding of plate boundary processes will have broad impact in the field of paleoseismology and will benefit hazard risk managers, city planners, and local governments.

沿海灾害给世界上许多人口最多的中心带来了风险。最近发生的地震（2011 年东北地区）和海啸（2004 年印度洋）中吸取的经验教训为了解未来可能发生的事件的强度提供了宝贵的见解。然而，由于仪器记录较短（十年到百年），长期的复发模式和强度仍不清楚。短期记录通常不足以捕获完整的地震周期，并且无法准确识别地震风险。因此，拟议研究计划的动机是利用古地震学（对地质记录中保存的过去地震和海啸的研究）来了解过去几个世纪到几千年发生的板块边界过程，并利用这些新信息为模型提供信息可用于预测沿海社区的地震风险。未来五年，该研究计划的目标是：(1) 调查走滑地震与海啸发生之间的联系，(2) 评估慢滑事件 (SSE) 的长期模式及其与地震预报的联系沿着俯冲带。将使用一套现场、实验室、统计和建模技术来实现为研究生和本科生水平研究设计的一系列单独研究的目标。这项研究利用了与新西兰（例如 GNS Science）、日本（例如日本地质调查局）和欧洲（例如梅努斯大学）政府和学术机构建立的合作关系，利用了古地震学、建模和年代学方面的专业知识。 。个别研究涉及印度尼西亚和新西兰的实地考察，以收集有关过去地震和海啸的新沉积学信息。总的来说，这些研究将增强我们评估以前未考虑的海啸源风险的能力，并提高我们对俯冲带的地震预报能力。对板块边界过程的进一步了解将对古地震学领域产生广泛影响，并将有利于灾害风险管理者、城市规划者和地方政府。