Forest fire regimes across boreal Eastern North America and Northern Europe (BENANE): towards understanding long-term dynamics, climate drivers, and future trends of forest fire activity

北美东北部和北欧的森林火灾状况（BENANE）：了解森林火灾活动的长期动态、气候驱动因素和未来趋势

• 批准号: DDG-2015-00026
• 负责人: Drobyshev, Igor
• 金额: $ 0.73万
• 依托单位: Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Development Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=612430
• 关键词: Forest; fire; regimes; across; boreal

Fire drives the dynamics and ecosystem functions of the boreal forest and directly affects global carbon balance and concentrations of the atmospheric trace gases. Understanding multi-scale controls of fire activity is paramount for sound mechanistic modeling of past and future dynamics of this biome, and particularly - its response to future climatic changes. The main long-term objective of my research is to contribute towards understanding of long-term dynamics of circumboreal fire activity as a function of biogeographical and climatic factors. This knowledge should allow for sound modelling of the future fire activity, and specifically - in downscaling the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns into estimates of future forest fire activity and assessing the resilience of the boreal biome under a range of climate conditions. The proposed project focuses on the boreal forests of Eastern North America and Northern Europe (BENANE), where the progress in this research is largely limited by (a) the availability of adequate reference datasets, and (b) limited understanding of complex climate-fire linkages. The proposed project will (A) establish a mechanistic relationship between climate variability, sub-regional biogeography, on one hand, and regional patterns of fire activity, on the other, putting a particular focus on years and periods with increased fire activity across BENANE region, and (B) calibrate a process-based modeling framework to project and analyze the effects of future climate on fire activity in BENANE, including dynamics of carbon emissions, changes in composition and dynamics of vegetation, forest carbon balance, and forest biomass and productivity. My overall hypothesis is that despite biogeographical differences within BENANE, differences in the dominating type of disturbance events (surface vs. stand replacing fires) and large geographical scale under consideration, there is a strong teleconnectivity patterns in sub-regional fire activity, which could be observed restrospecitvely at multiple temporal scales. This connectivity stems from large scale atmospheric circulation anomalies over the BENANE, which are related to the changes in the energy states of the system involving Northern Atlantic Ocean and associated atmospheric pressure patterns.

火灾驱动着北方森林的动态和生态系统功能，并直接影响全球碳平衡和大气微量气体的浓度。了解火灾活动的多尺度控制对于该生物群落过去和未来动态的合理机械建模至关重要，特别是它对未来气候变化的响应。我研究的主要长期目标是帮助理解环北方火灾活动的长期动态作为生物地理和气候因素的函数。这些知识应该能够对未来火灾活动进行合理的建模，特别是在将大规模大气环流模式缩小到对未来森林火灾活动的估计中，并评估北方生物群落在一系列气候条件下的恢复能力。拟议项目重点关注北美东部和北欧的北方森林 (BENANE)，该地区的研究进展在很大程度上受到以下因素的限制：(a) 缺乏足够的参考数据集，以及 (b) 对复杂气候火灾的了解有限联系。拟议项目将 (A) 一方面在气候变化、次区域生物地理和火灾活动区域模式之间建立机械关系，另一方面特别关注整个 BENANE 地区火灾活动增加的年份和时期(B) 校准基于过程的建模框架，以预测和分析未来气候对 BENANE 火灾活动的影响，包括碳排放动态、植被组成和动态变化、森林碳平衡以及森林生物量和生产力。我的总体假设是，尽管 BENANE 内部存在生物地理差异、干扰事件的主要类型（地表火灾与地表火灾）以及所考虑的大地理范围的差异，但次区域火灾活动中存在很强的远程连通模式，这可能是在多个时间尺度上进行回顾性观察。这种连通性源于 BENANE 上空的大规模大气环流异常，这与涉及北大西洋和相关大气压力模式的系统能量状态的变化有关。