Advanced prediction of long period ground motion in Osaka during huge subduction earthquakes

大阪大俯冲地震期间长周期地震动的高级预测

• 批准号: 17560503
• 负责人: KAMAE Katsuhiro
• 金额: $ 1.47万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2005 至 2006
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-17560503/
• 关键词: Subduction earthquakes; Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes; Long period ground motion prediction; Source modeling; Large scaled basin; 3-D F.D.M Osaka basin; 大阪平野; 強震動予測; 長周期地震動; 海溝型地震; 内陸地殻内地震; 強震動予測レシピ; 経験的グリーン関数法; 堆積盆地

There is high possibility of the occurrence of the Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes which are capable of causing immense damage to mega-city Osaka which located inside the Osaka basin. In this study, we tried to advance the long period ground motion prediction through the verification of the source modeling based on the recipe for the ground motion prediction, estimation of propagation path effect. We showed the validation of the source modeling due to the recipe from application to the actual earthquakes (2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake and 2005 Miyagiken-oki earthquake). Furthermore, from theoretical long period ground motion simulation of the recordings, we proposed Q=f・Vs/2 as the optimum Q value in waveform simulations using 3-D Finite Difference Method. Finally, we carried out long period ground motion prediction in mega-city Osaka using the 3-D finite difference method for the expected Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes. The characteristics of the predicted long-period ground motions are related with the source location and the thicknesses of the sediments of the basin. The predominant period of ground motions is 4 to 6 second in the thick sediment area, 3 to 4 second in the thin sediment area (basin edge). The durations of long period ground motions in the central part of the Osaka city are more than 4 minutes, and the predominant period is around 6 second. These results suggest that we need to investigate the seismic safety of high-rise buildings and base-isolated buildings and so on.

发生对位于大阪盆地内的大城市大阪造成巨大破坏的东南海地震和南海地震的可能性很高。在本研究中，我们试图通过验证来推进长周期地震动预测。基于地震动预测、传播路径效应估计的方法的震源建模 我们展示了根据该方法在实际地震（2003 年十胜冲地震和 2005 年）中的应用对震源模型的验证。此外，根据记录的理论长周期地震动模拟，我们提出了使用 3-D 有限差分法进行波形模拟的最佳 Q 值。使用 3-D 有限差分法对大城市大阪的预期东南海和南海地震进行周期地震动预测 预测的长周期地震动特征与震源位置和厚度有关。沉积物厚的地区地震动的主周期为4～6秒，沉积物薄的区域（盆地边缘）地震动的主周期为3～4秒。城市地震时间超过4分钟，主导时段在6秒左右，这些结果表明我们需要对高层建筑和基础隔震建筑等进行抗震安全性研究。

项目成果

Strong ground motion prediction in Osaka area for the Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes using the empirical Green' s function method.

利用经验格林函数法对大阪地区东南海和南海地震进行强地震动预测。

• 发表时间: 2006
• 期刊: Chikyu monthly, Special issue No.55
• 作者: Kamae;K.
• 通讯作者: K.

Source model composed of asperities for the 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture, Japan, earthquake(MJMA=6.8) by the forward modeling using the empirical Green's function method

使用经验格林函数方法正演模拟2004年日本新泻县中部地震（MJMA=6.8）的由凹凸体组成的震源模型

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: Earth Planets Space Vol.57,No.6
• 作者: Kamae;K.;T.Ikeda;S.Miwa
• 通讯作者: S.Miwa

Source model composed of asperities for the 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture, Japan, earthquake (MJMA=6.8) by the forward modeling using the empirical Green's function method

使用经验格林函数方法进行正演建模，由 2004 年日本新泻县中部地震 (MJMA=6.8) 的凹凸体组成的震源模型

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: Earth, Planets and Space Vol.57, No.6
• 作者: Kamae;K.;T.Ikeda;S.Miwa
• 通讯作者: S.Miwa

Source model composed of asperities for the 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture, Japan, earthquake (MJMA =6.8) by the forward modeling using the empirical Green's function method.

使用经验格林函数方法进行正演建模，由 2004 年日本新泻县中部地震 (MJMA =6.8) 的凹凸体组成的震源模型。

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: Earth Planets Space Vol. 57, No. 6
• 作者: Kamae;K.;T.Ikeda;S.Miwa
• 通讯作者: S.Miwa

Recipe for Predicting Strong Ground Motions : The State of the Art and Future Prospects

预测强烈地面运动的秘诀：最新技术和未来前景

• 发表时间: 2006
• 期刊: Proceedings of the Eighth National Earthquake Engineering, San Francisco (In press)
• 作者: Kojiro Irikura;Hiroe Miyake
• 通讯作者: Hiroe Miyake