The Empirical Study on Land Price Changes in Urban and non-Urban Land-Use

城市与非城市土地利用地价变化实证研究

基本信息

批准号：
06650677
负责人：
HIDANO Noboru
金额：
$ 0.26万
依托单位：
TOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1994
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1994 至 1995
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-06650677/
关键词：
Non-Urban Land Price Changes Network Autocorrelation 地価予測モデル商業・業務地

项目摘要

We have discussed the problems caused by the rapid changes of land price from 1950s. The several policies that control the changes were adopted, however they did not work well because there is something yet to investigate the factors of the changes. Therefore, the purpose of this study is twofold, i.e.to clarify factors of land price changes at urban and non-urban land-use in Tokyo Mtropolitan Areas, and to establish the method with which we can estimete the changes.Firstly, we analyzed the relation between the land price changes and their factors which consisted of follows ; 1) an expectation of land rent for the future, 2) an expectation of land price for the future, 3) returns rate of substitute property. As a result, we clarified that the presennt changes were determined by those during last one and half yesrs.Secondly, we identified the mechanism of land price changes by the data that possessed same attribute each year. And we found that land price chnages are primarily determined by spatial repercussions during 1984 and 1992 with network autocorelation model.Thirdly, we aimed to establish the methd to forecast land price changes by the difussion index. The analysis clarified the applicability of this method to the case of commercial districts in the central part of Tokyo. Furthermore, this study demonstrated the applicabiliy of the difussion index, and prove the advantage of this method.After all, we clarified the machanism of the determinaton od land price changes and indicated the method of forecasting the changes.

我们已经讨论了从1950年代开始的土地价格迅速变化引起的问题。采用了控制更改的几项政策，但是它们效果不佳，因为还可以调查变化的因素。因此，这项研究的目的是双重的，即阐明东京蒙特波利斯地区城市和非城市土地利用的土地价格变化的因素，并确定我们可以估计变化的方法。首先，我们分析了土地价格变化及其在以下因素的因素之间的关系； 1）对未来土地租金的期望，2）对未来土地价格的期望，3）退还替代财产的回报率。结果，我们澄清说，普雷恩特的变化是由最后一个和一半的Yesr中确定的。第二，我们通过每年具有相同属性的数据确定了土地价格变化的机制。我们发现，土地价格金属企业主要由1984年和1992年的空间影响确定，其网络自动关联模型。三分之二的是，我们旨在建立METHD来预测扩散指数的土地价格变化。该分析阐明了该方法对东京中部商业区案例的适用性。此外，这项研究证明了扩散指数的适用性，并证明了这种方法的优势。所有这些方法都阐明了确定源OD土地价格变化的MACHANISM，并指出了预测变化的方法。