Macroeconomic Implications of the Hartz IV Labor Market Reform

哈茨 IV 劳动力市场改革的宏观经济影响

• 批准号: 424639011
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Christian Merkl
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für VWL, insb. Makroökonomik
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2018-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/424639011?language=en
• 关键词: Macroeconomic; Implications; Hartz; IV; Labor

More than a decade after the implementation of the Hartz reforms in Germany, there is still substantial disagreement about the quantitative macroeconomic effects in the existing literature. How much did Hartz IV contribute to the decline of unemployment? How much did Hartz IV affect earnings inequality? In addition, the debate on the open-economy effects is still ongoing: Did the Hartz reforms lead to a substantial increase of the current account surplus?Our project proposal aims at obtaining guidance from the rich Nuremberg based microeconomic data and to use the derived insights for macroeconomic modeling. The identified microeconomic patterns will allow us to develop theory and to discipline for our quantitative counterfactual exercises.In the first project, we aim at proposing a novel methodology to evaluate the Hartz IV reform through the lens of a macroeconomic model of the labor market that distinguishes between a partial and an equilibrium effect of the reform. Instead of directly assuming a certain reduction of the benefit replacement rate, we will use the IAB Job Vacancy Survey to empirically measure and then target the partial effect of Hartz IV in our model. Furthermore, we will use the time series behavior of the selection rate and the job-finding rate to determine the relative importance of partial and equilibrium effects over the business cycle. Our macroeconomic model of the labor market will be calibrated to the microeconomic estimates and used to evaluate the macroeconomic employment and earnings effects of Hartz IV. In addition, we will analyze welfare issues and interactions with other reform steps (such as Hartz III).In the second project, we aim at gaining deeper insights on the open-economy effects of the Hartz reforms based on the tradability of establishments’ output. We will document how worker and job flows as well as earnings changed around the time of the Hartz III and Hartz IV reforms depending on the degree of tradability of establishments’ output. We will use the Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel (AWFP), which contains flows and earnings for all German establishments, and link it with two sources on international exposure. We will contrast these empirical results with the results from a monetary union model with search frictions and a tradable and a non-tradable sector. From a theoretical perspective, we expect that the tradable sector is affected more (immediately) by labor market reforms. We will analyze whether a standard model of this type can generate similar patterns as in the data with reasonable parameter values. If this is not the case, we will modify parameters and important assumptions such as the wage formation mechanisms. In case model and data are sufficiently close, we can perform important counterfactual exercises in an open-economy setting. If model and data are nevertheless far apart, the project may discover an interesting puzzle for future theoretical research.

在德国实施Hartz改革后的十多年，关于现有文献的定量宏观经济影响仍然存在实质性分歧。 Hartz IV有多少促进失业率下降？ Hartz IV影响了收入不平等多少？此外，关于开放经济效应的辩论仍在进行中：Hartz改革是否导致经常账户盈余大幅增加？我们的项目提案旨在从富裕的纽伦堡基于纽伦堡的微观经济数据中获得指导，并使用衍生的洞察力来实现宏观经济建模的见解。确定的微观经济模式将使我们能够发展理论并为我们的定量反事实练习进行纪律。在第一个项目中，我们旨在提出一种新的方法，以通过劳动力市场的宏观经济模型来评估Hartz IV改革，从而区分局部和等效的改革效应。我们将使用IAB职位空缺调查来实证测量，然后瞄准Hartz IV在我们的模型中的部分效应，而不是直接假设福利替代率进行一定的降低。此外，我们将使用选择率的时间序列行为和工作发现率的时间序列行为来确定在商业周期中部分和等效效应的相对重要性。我们的劳动力市场宏观经济模型将校准微观经济估计，并用于评估Hartz IV的宏观经济就业和收入影响。此外，我们将分析福利问题和与其他改革步骤（例如Hartz III）的互动。在第二个项目中，我们旨在根据机构的产出的可交易性，更深入地了解Hartz改革的开放经济影响。我们将根据Hartz III和Hartz IV改革之际，工人和工作流动以及收入如何根据机构产出的可贸易程度而发生变化。我们将使用行政工资和劳动力市场流动面板（AWFP），其中包含所有德国机构的流量和收益，并将其与有关国际风险的两个来源联系起来。我们将将这些经验结果与货币联盟模型的结果与搜索摩擦以及交易和不可交易行业进行对比。从理论的角度来看，我们希望贸易部门受到劳动力市场改革的影响更大（立即）。我们将分析此类型的标准模型是否可以生成与具有合理参数值的数据中的类似模式。如果不是这种情况，我们将修改参数和重要假设，例如工资形成机制。如果模型和数据足够接近，我们可以在开放经济环境中执行重要的反事实练习。但是，如果模型和数据相距甚远，那么该项目可能会发现一个有趣的拼图，以实现未来的理论研究。