A modeling approach for accurately predicting land use changes brought by human decisions

准确预测人类决策带来的土地利用变化的建模方法

• 批准号: 22KJ1856
• 负责人: Estacio Ian
• 金额: $ 1.09万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2023-03-08 至 2024-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-22KJ1856/
• 关键词: GIS; Land cover change; Social-ecological system; Agricultural abandonment; Agent-based model; Statistical model; Land-use simulation; Logistic regression

So far, the project has three main achievements. First, fieldwork in the world heritage landscape of Ifugao rice terraces was successfully implemented. Farmers, government officials, and academic experts were interviewed regarding the factors that lead to agricultural abandonment. Second, a statistical model of agricultural abandonment was developed. The developed statistical model identified the spatial and non-spatial driving factors of agricultural abandonment based on past trends of explanatory variables. Third, an agent-based model was developed that simulates the future status of the Ifugao rice terraces based on policy scenarios. The social-environment driving factors that were gathered from the fieldwork and the statistical model were incorporated in this model.

到目前为止，该项目取得了三个主要成就。首先，成功实施了世界上的Ifugao Rice Terraces遗产景观。农民，政府官员和学术专家就导致农业遗弃的因素进行了采访。其次，开发了农业遗弃的统计模型。开发的统计模型确定了基于解释变量的过去趋势的农业遗弃的空间和非空间驱动因素。第三，开发了基于代理的模型，该模型基于政策方案模拟了IFUGAO水稻露台的未来状态。该模型中纳入了从现场工作和统计模型中收集的社会环境驱动因素。

项目成果

A statistical model of land use/cover change integrating logistic and linear models: An application to agricultural abandonment

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jag.2023.103339
• 发表时间: 2023-06
• 期刊: Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinformation
• 作者: I. Estacio;C. Sianipar;K. Onitsuka;Mrittika Basu;S. Hoshino