Devaluation of Experience? Expectation Formation in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in the Period of Economic Structural Change since the 1970s

经验贬值？

• 批准号: 275239294
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Werner Plumpe
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Wirtschafts- und Sozialgeschichte
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2014-12-31 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/275239294?language=en
• 关键词: Devaluation; Experience; Expectation; Formation; Small

The project inquires about the value of historical experience for the expectation formation in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the period of economic structural change since the 1970s: Has the structural change along with its growing demands for decision-making led to a devaluation of experience-based knowledge for the expectation formation of these mostly owner- or family-operated businesses? We have a twofold working hypothesis: First, we assume that the ever-present and intuitively employed empirical knowledge of the owners and executives of SMEs in the mid-1960s was significantly impacted by the entrepreneurial successes of the first two post-war decades. Second, we simultaneously assume that during a process of professionalization of management this empirical knowledge was replaced by certain functional equivalents of a more rational oriented, non-personal, organizational expectation formation according to Niklas Luhmann. If one follows this hypothesis, it can be assumed that a conscious waiver of the rather intuitive-adaptive expectation formation drawing upon individual experiences took place in favor of an increased use of methodical advanced techniques of analysis and prognosis along with consulting procedures in all relevant areas of corporate governance. However, this assumption needs to be questioned at the same time: Perhaps even contrary developments took place because the professionalization process, in the face of repeated corporate crises reached quickly its own limits? Did the owners and managing directors of SMEs, being confronted with increasing difficulties in coping with the structural changes, rely perhaps even more on empirical knowledge, but dating farther back or extending into other areas? The project will tackle these questions in three fields of examination: First, the arrangement of owner relationships and the structures of management and control; second, the choice of strategies and organizational structures derived from them; third, the planning and implementation of investments and financing them. Therefore, the project is placed within the core research area of enterprises, innovation and technological changes of the PP 1859. We plan to work with an interdisciplinary methodical approach that combines the ideas of truly bounded rationality (Gerd Gigerenzer/Reinhard Selten), animal spirits (George Akerlof/Robert Shiller), and fictional expectations (Jens Beckert). In a first step we will create a dynamic heuristic model for experience-based expectation formation in SMEs since the 1970s. In a second step, this model will be used for the empirical analysis of a case study (Philippine/Saarpor). That will allow a critical examination, and, if necessary, subsequent adjustment of the model itself. If the model proves to be useful and prolific, we are considering using it in a follow-up project for the systematic-comparative analysis of a bigger sample of SMEs from different countries.

该项目探究历史经验对于 20 世纪 70 年代以来经济结构变迁时期中小企业预期形成的价值：结构变迁及其不断增长的决策需求是否导致了对于这些主要是业主或家族经营的企业的期望形成来说，基于经验的知识是否贬值？我们有一个双重的工作假设：首先，我们假设 20 世纪 60 年代中期中小企业所有者和高管始终存在且直观地运用的经验知识受到战后前两个十年创业成功的显着影响。其次，我们同时假设，根据尼克拉斯·卢曼的说法，在管理专业化的过程中，这种经验知识被更理性导向的、非个人的、组织期望形成的某些功能等价物所取代。如果遵循这一假设，则可以假设，有意识地放弃了基于个人经验的相当直观的适应性预期形成，有利于更多地使用有条理的先进分析和预测技术以及所有相关领域的咨询程序公司治理。然而，这个假设同时也需要受到质疑：也许甚至出现了相反的发展，因为专业化进程在面对反复的企业危机时很快就达到了自身的极限？中小企业的所有者和董事总经理在应对结构性变化时面临越来越多的困难，是否可能更多地依赖经验知识，但可以追溯到更早的时期或扩展到其他领域？该项目将从三个方面来解决这些问题：一是所有者关系的安排和管控结构；其次，战略和组织结构的选择；三是投资融资的规划和实施。因此，该项目被置于 PP 1859 的企业、创新和技术变革的核心研究领域内。我们计划采用跨学科的方法方法，结合真正有限理性（Gerd Gigerenzer/Reinhard Selten）、动物精神的思想（乔治·阿克洛夫/罗伯特·席勒）和虚构的期望（延斯·贝克特）。第一步，我们将创建一个动态启发式模型，用于自 20 世纪 70 年代以来中小企业基于经验的期望形成。第二步，该模型将用于案例研究（菲律宾/萨尔波尔）的实证分析。这将允许进行严格的检查，并在必要时对模型本身进行后续调整。如果该模型被证明是有用且多产的，我们正在考虑在后续项目中使用它，对来自不同国家的更大样本的中小企业进行系统比较分析。