RAPID: Revisiting the compounding storm surge and extreme precipitation events on coastal flooding during hurricane Florence using field data

RAPID：利用现场数据重新审视佛罗伦萨飓风期间沿海洪水的复合风暴潮和极端降水事件

• 批准号: 2423008
• 负责人: Ashok Mishra
• 金额: $ 6.22万
• 依托单位: Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-03-01 至 2024-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2423008&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Revisiting; compounding; storm; surge

During September 2018, Hurricane Florence wreaked havoc in the Carolinas with devastating heavy rainfall (20-40 inches), record sea-water storm surges, and consequent coastal flooding with reported inundation depths of as high as 6 feet. The impacts included major damage to the surrounding region and a number of hurricane-related deaths. The city of Wilmington, NC entirely was cut off by historic flooding from the Cape Fear River. The dense population and development along its coastline continues to leave South Carolina communities highly vulnerable to coastal flooding from these seasonal hurricane events. The major causes of hurricane-related flooding events are the coastal storm surge caused by extreme winds and/or the occurrence of concentrated and extreme precipitation within vulnerable, flood prone areas. During flooding events, perishable data, such as high-water marks, are potential evidence of the highest water levels during a flood and they provide valuable data for understanding extreme flood events. In this study, valuable information will be obtained from such perishable data through field visits. The overall objective of this research project is to visit the locations of coastal flooding to investigate (a) the reliability of the weather forecast in terms of different spatio-temporal scales for extreme rainfalls, and (b) the joint probability of extreme rainfall and storm surge to gain insight into an increase in flood risk under hurricane scenarios. This research projects aims to amass data with which stakeholders can improve their current design standards for future flooding preparedness. The PI also expects (c) to utilize observed and collected perishable data in developing a statistical modeling framework both to generate spatial risk maps and to identify critical vulnerabilities of important coastal infrastructure regarding compound events. Such information is critical for maintaining coastal infrastructure networks and for providing alerts during extreme events. This research project will advance knowledge about the influence of extreme rainfall and storm surge on coastal flooding as well as the potential impact of such events on environmental sustainability. By documenting perishable data, the research project provides an excellent opportunity to study the compounding effect of two extreme weather events at multiple locations and to estimate the return period for such events with respect to historical periods. The research results will be used to develop strategies for improving awareness about compound extreme events amongst stakeholders to minimize flooding impacts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

2018 年 9 月期间，飓风“佛罗伦萨”在卡罗来纳州造成严重破坏，带来毁灭性的强降雨（20-40 英寸）、创纪录的海水风暴潮以及随之而来的沿海洪水，据报道淹没深度高达 6 英尺。影响包括对周边地区造成重大破坏以及一些与飓风相关的死亡。北卡罗来纳州威尔明顿市因历史性的开普菲尔河洪水而与外界完全隔绝。沿海地区密集的人口和发展继续使南卡罗来纳州社区极易受到这些季节性飓风事件造成的沿海洪水的影响。与飓风相关的洪水事件的主要原因是极端风引起的沿海风暴潮和/或在脆弱、洪水易发地区发生集中和极端降水。在洪水事件期间，易腐烂的数据（例如高水位线）是洪水期间最高水位的潜在证据，并为了解极端洪水事件提供了宝贵的数据。在本研究中，将通过实地考察从这些易腐烂的数据中获得有价值的信息。本研究项目的总体目标是访问沿海洪水发生地点，以研究(a)不同时空尺度的极端降雨天气预报的可靠性，以及(b)极端降雨和风暴的联合概率激增以深入了解飓风情景下洪水风险的增加。该研究项目旨在收集数据，利益相关者可以利用这些数据改进当前的设计标准，以做好未来的防洪准备。 PI 还期望 (c) 利用观测和收集的易腐烂数据开发统计建模框架，以生成空间风险地图并识别与复合事件有关的重要沿海基础设施的关键脆弱性。此类信息对于维护沿海基础设施网络和在极端事件期间提供警报至关重要。该研究项目将增进人们对极端降雨和风暴潮对沿海洪水的影响以及此类事件对环境可持续性的潜在影响的了解。通过记录易腐烂的数据，该研究项目提供了一个绝佳的机会来研究多个地点的两次极端天气事件的复合效应，并估计此类事件相对于历史时期的重现期。研究结果将用于制定战略，提高利益相关者对复合极端事件的认识，以最大程度地减少洪水影响。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。