IUCRC Planning Grant University of Georgia: Center for Innovation in Risk-analysis for Climate Adaptation and Decision-making (CIRCAD)

IUCRC 规划拨款 佐治亚大学：气候适应和决策风险分析创新中心 (CIRCAD)

• 批准号: 2413384
• 负责人: Todd Bridges
• 金额: $ 2万
• 依托单位: University of Georgia
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-05-01 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2413384&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: IUCRC; Planning; Grant; University; Georgia

Climate change poses multiple interacting risks to society and the economy which are only expected to intensify with additional warming. Adequate managing of risk is critical for a viable insurance industry. Most insurance, re-insurance, catastrophe modeling, and data services firms have concluded that climate risk poses unique challenges that are holding back this sector of the economy. Challenges include the non-linear and interconnected nature of climate risks, the uncertainty of global climate scenarios, and the paucity of critical actuarial data. As a result, insurance markets are struggling to balance consumers’ interests for access to affordable insurance against the insurers’ need to remain solvent. The proposed formation of an industry-university cooperative research center (ICURC), the Center for Innovation in Risk-analysis for Climate Adaptation and Decision-making (CIRCAD), and funding of its full Center planning process, will address the need for more science-based research on the systemic challenges posed by climate risk the creation of novel new insurance strategies and products. The proposed Center consists of two university Sites (University of Georgia and Duke University). It will engage a diverse collection of interested parties as Center members who represent the insurance sector and its value chain. Members of the Center pay a membership fee to join. This industry money is then used to fund university-faculty proposed projects that address the highest priority sector needs that are collectively determined by Center members. The proposed Center will undertake interdisciplinary, high-impact, pre-competitive research that seeks to both improve climate risk modeling as well as foster broader, sector-wide innovations in risk distribution and assessment that align with industry products and practices now impacted by the unpredictability brought on by climate change. Broader impacts of the work include providing solutions to ensure financial protection in times of crisis, as well as incentivizing societal risk reduction, safeguarding vulnerable communities, and catalyzing the development and deployment of climate solutions for other sectors of the economy that require synergistic risk signaling and management capabilities. Other broader impacts include recruiting, mentoring, and developing a diverse, highly-trained, climate-ready workforce.The proposed Center for Innovation in Risk-analysis for Climate Adaptation and Decision-making (CIRCAD) will focus on tackling the present insurance crisis. It is motivated by developing creative and implementable solutions for the insurance industry whose losses are being driven by climate change. This will take place through cutting-edge research and cross-sector collaboration. It will also address regulatory issues and the need to create a climate-resilient society by overcoming a lack of balance in the industry which creates market inefficiencies in the form of obscured price signals and misaligned incentives which discourages public and private investment in climate-friendly projects. The proposed Center will focus on advancing insurance solutions at a systems level. Realization of the vision requires interdisciplinary, high-impact research that integrates data science and modeling, risk assessment and decision theory, and economics and policy. These element must be brought together to create and evaluate innovative and actionable climate risk management strategies, products, and practices. The proposed Center will consist of 25 or more faculty and senior researchers at Duke and the University of Georgia in the fields of engineering, climate science, public policy, decision science, economics, law, statistics, and computing. The faculty team is poised to engage with the insurance industry and other interested parties to develop a portfolio of sector, high-priority, high-impact projects. Anticipated intellectual advances include: identification of analytical and governance strategies for effective and equitable management of climate-related financial risk; improved understanding of subjective climate risk perceptions and their effect on risk management decisions; determination of the link between extreme heat and health outcomes; development of national-scale Bayesian probabilistic methods for multi-hazard characterization; and development of resilience metrics to inform planning, protection, and investment. Such advances will not only support the needs of the insurance sector, but, by disseminating the knowledge and tools produced by this research to communities, policymakers, and non-governmental organizations, will enhance climate decision-making and resilience on a national scale.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

气候变化给社会和经济带来了多种相互作用的风险，而这些风险只会随着气候变暖而加剧。大多数保险、再保险、灾难建模和数据服务公司都得出这样的结论：充分的风险管理至关重要。气候风险带来了阻碍该经济领域发展的独特挑战，挑战包括气候风险的非线性和相互关联性、全球气候的不确定性以及关键精算数据的缺乏。努力平衡消费者获得负担得起的保险的利益与保险公司保持偿付能力的需要。拟议成立产学合作研究中心（ICURC），即气候适应和决策风险分析创新中心。 (CIRCAD) 及其整个中心规划流程的资金，将满足对气候风险所带来的系统性挑战进行更多基于科学的研究的需求，创建新颖的保险策略和产品。拟议的中心由两个大学站点组成（佐治亚大学和杜克大学它将吸引代表保险行业及其价值链的各种感兴趣的各方作为中心成员，然后将这笔行业资金用于资助大学教师提出的项目。解决由中心成员共同确定的最优先部门需求。拟议的中心将开展跨学科、高影响力的竞争前研究，旨在改进气候风险模型，并促进更广泛的、全部门的风险分配创新。与行业产品和实践相一致的评估现在受到了影响这项工作的更广泛影响包括提供解决方案以确保危机时期的财务保护，以及激励减少社会风险、保护弱势社区以及促进其他部门的气候解决方案的开发和部署。其他更广泛的影响包括招聘、指导和培养多样化、训练有素、适应气候变化的劳动力队伍。拟议的气候适应和决策风险分析创新中心。 CIRCAD 的目标是通过尖端研究和跨部门合作，为因气候变化而遭受损失的保险业开发创造性和可实施的解决方案。还解决了监管问题和创建气候适应型社会的必要性，克服了行业不平衡的问题，这种不平衡导致市场效率低下，价格信号模糊，激励措施失调，阻碍了公共和私人对气候友好型项目的投资。拟议的中心将专注于在系统层面推进保险解决方案。实现这一愿景需要将数据科学和建模、风险评估和决策理论以及经济学和政策结合起来的跨学科、高影响力的研究，以创造和评估创新。拟议的中心将由杜克大学和佐治亚大学工程、气候科学、公共政策、决策科学、经济学、法律领域的 25 名或更多教职人员和高级研究人员组成。 、统计和计算。准备与保险业和其他相关方合作开发一系列行业、高优先级、高影响力的项目，预期的智力进步包括：确定有效和公平管理气候相关金融风险的分析和治理策略。更好地了解主观气候风险认知及其对风险管理决策的影响；确定极端高温与健康结果之间的联系；开发用于多灾害特征描述的国家级贝叶斯概率方法，并开发复原力指标，为规划和保护提供信息；和投资。这些进步不仅将支持保险部门的需求，而且通过向社区、政策制定者和非政府组织传播这项研究产生的知识和工具，将增强国家范围内的气候决策和抵御能力。授予 NSF 的法定使命，并通过评估反映使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准，被认为值得支持。