IUCRC Planning Grant University of Georgia: Center for Innovation in Risk-analysis for Climate Adaptation and Decision-making (CIRCAD)

IUCRC 规划拨款 佐治亚大学：气候适应和决策风险分析创新中心 (CIRCAD)

• 批准号: 2413384
• 负责人: Todd Bridges
• 金额: $ 2万
• 依托单位: University of Georgia
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-05-01 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2413384&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: IUCRC; Planning; Grant; University; Georgia

Climate change poses multiple interacting risks to society and the economy which are only expected to intensify with additional warming. Adequate managing of risk is critical for a viable insurance industry. Most insurance, re-insurance, catastrophe modeling, and data services firms have concluded that climate risk poses unique challenges that are holding back this sector of the economy. Challenges include the non-linear and interconnected nature of climate risks, the uncertainty of global climate scenarios, and the paucity of critical actuarial data. As a result, insurance markets are struggling to balance consumers’ interests for access to affordable insurance against the insurers’ need to remain solvent. The proposed formation of an industry-university cooperative research center (ICURC), the Center for Innovation in Risk-analysis for Climate Adaptation and Decision-making (CIRCAD), and funding of its full Center planning process, will address the need for more science-based research on the systemic challenges posed by climate risk the creation of novel new insurance strategies and products. The proposed Center consists of two university Sites (University of Georgia and Duke University). It will engage a diverse collection of interested parties as Center members who represent the insurance sector and its value chain. Members of the Center pay a membership fee to join. This industry money is then used to fund university-faculty proposed projects that address the highest priority sector needs that are collectively determined by Center members. The proposed Center will undertake interdisciplinary, high-impact, pre-competitive research that seeks to both improve climate risk modeling as well as foster broader, sector-wide innovations in risk distribution and assessment that align with industry products and practices now impacted by the unpredictability brought on by climate change. Broader impacts of the work include providing solutions to ensure financial protection in times of crisis, as well as incentivizing societal risk reduction, safeguarding vulnerable communities, and catalyzing the development and deployment of climate solutions for other sectors of the economy that require synergistic risk signaling and management capabilities. Other broader impacts include recruiting, mentoring, and developing a diverse, highly-trained, climate-ready workforce.The proposed Center for Innovation in Risk-analysis for Climate Adaptation and Decision-making (CIRCAD) will focus on tackling the present insurance crisis. It is motivated by developing creative and implementable solutions for the insurance industry whose losses are being driven by climate change. This will take place through cutting-edge research and cross-sector collaboration. It will also address regulatory issues and the need to create a climate-resilient society by overcoming a lack of balance in the industry which creates market inefficiencies in the form of obscured price signals and misaligned incentives which discourages public and private investment in climate-friendly projects. The proposed Center will focus on advancing insurance solutions at a systems level. Realization of the vision requires interdisciplinary, high-impact research that integrates data science and modeling, risk assessment and decision theory, and economics and policy. These element must be brought together to create and evaluate innovative and actionable climate risk management strategies, products, and practices. The proposed Center will consist of 25 or more faculty and senior researchers at Duke and the University of Georgia in the fields of engineering, climate science, public policy, decision science, economics, law, statistics, and computing. The faculty team is poised to engage with the insurance industry and other interested parties to develop a portfolio of sector, high-priority, high-impact projects. Anticipated intellectual advances include: identification of analytical and governance strategies for effective and equitable management of climate-related financial risk; improved understanding of subjective climate risk perceptions and their effect on risk management decisions; determination of the link between extreme heat and health outcomes; development of national-scale Bayesian probabilistic methods for multi-hazard characterization; and development of resilience metrics to inform planning, protection, and investment. Such advances will not only support the needs of the insurance sector, but, by disseminating the knowledge and tools produced by this research to communities, policymakers, and non-governmental organizations, will enhance climate decision-making and resilience on a national scale.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

气候变化位置对社会和经济的多种相互作用风险有望通过额外的变暖加剧。充分管理风险对于可行的保险业至关重要。大多数保险，重新保险，灾难建模和数据服务公司都得出结论，气候风险带来了阻碍经济领域的独特挑战。挑战包括气候风险的非线性和相互联系性质，全球气候场景的不确定性以及关键实际数据的匮乏。结果，保险市场正在努力平衡消费者的利益，从而获得负担得起的保险，以应对保险公司的需求。拟议的形成了一个行业 - 大学教练研究中心（ICURC），气候适应和决策的风险分析创新中心（Circad）以及对其完整中心计划过程的资金，将解决对新型新保险策略和产品的气候风险提出的更多基于科学的研究的需求。拟议中心由两个大学（佐治亚大学和杜克大学）组成。作为代表保险业及其价值链的中心成员，它将吸引各种有趣的政党集合。中心成员支付加入会员费。然后，该行业资金用于资助大学教师提出的项目，以满足由中心成员共同确定的最高优先部门需求。拟议的中心将进行跨学科，高影响力的竞争力研究，旨在改善气候风险建模以及促进广播公司的风险分配和评估方面的范围内的创新，与现在受到气候变化所带来的不可预测性影响的行业产品和实践相吻合。这项工作的广泛影响包括提供解决方案，以确保在危机时期的财务保护，以及激励社会风险降低，保护脆弱的社区，并促进需要协同风险信号和管理能力的经济其他部门的气候解决方案的发展和部署。其他更广泛的影响包括招募，心理和发展多样性，受过高度训练的气候就绪的劳动力。拟议的风险分析创新中心，用于气候适应和决策（Circad），将重点侧重于解决当前的保险危机。它是由为保险业开发创造性和可实施解决方案的动机，而保险业的损失是由气候变化驱动的。这将通过前沿研究和跨部门的合作进行。它还将解决监管问题，并需要通过克服行业缺乏平衡来创建一个气候富裕的社会，从而以晦涩的价格信号的形式创造市场效率低下，并削弱了对气候友好项目中的公共和私人投资的激励措施。拟议的中心将专注于在系统级别上推进保险解决方案。愿景的实现需要跨学科的高影响力研究，将数据科学与建模，风险评估和决策理论以及经济学和政策整合在一起。必须汇集这些要素，以创建和评估创新且可行的气候风险管理策略，产品和实践。拟议的中心将由杜克大学的25个或更多教职员工和高级研究人员组成，佐治亚大学在工程，气候科学，公共政策，决策科学，经济学，法律，统计和计算领域组成。教师团队被毒死，与保险业和其他有趣的政党互动，以开发领域，高优先级，高影响力项目的投资组合。预期的智力进步包括：确定分析和治理策略，以有效且公平地管理与气候相关的财务风险；改善了对主观气候风险感知及其对风险管理决策的影响的理解；确定极热与健康结果之间的联系；开发民族规模的贝叶斯概率方法，用于多危险表征；以及弹性指标的开发，以告知计划，保护和投资。这些进步不仅将支持保险部门的需求，而且通过将这项研究的知识和工具传播给社区，政策制定者和非政府组织，将增强国家规模上的气候决策和韧性。本奖项奖可以通过评估基金会的范围来反映NSF的法定任务，并反映了对基金会的支持，并已将其视为支持者的支持者。