MCA Pilot PUI: Validating and Constraining Catastrophe Models with Paleo Tropical Cyclone Data for Enhanced Risk Management

MCA 试点 PUI：利用古热带气旋数据验证和约束巨灾模型，以增强风险管理

• 批准号: 2322270
• 负责人: Joanne Muller
• 金额: $ 26.24万
• 依托单位: Florida Gulf Coast University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-07-15 至 2026-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2322270&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: MCA; Pilot; PUI; Validating; Constraining

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a serious threat for densely populated coastal communities. This is particularly true for the Florida coastline. Along the Florida coast, sprawling concentrations of people and properties have resulted in a recent rapid increase in human exposure to TC landfalls. Hurricane Ian made landfall on the Southwest Florida coast on September 28, 2022. This storm presented all three of the hazards commonly associated with hurricanes: wind, rain, and storm-tide surge. But by far the most catastrophic impacts were from the storm-tide surge. High water marks on Fort Myers Beach reached near 16 feet. Hurricane Ian could be one of the costliest natural disasters in US history at $112.9 billion USD. In the risk industry, such low-probability, high-impact events like these are known as “Tail-Risk Events.” Tail-Risk Events often cause widespread economic chaos, and they are also often associated with substantial and devastating loss of life. This research will extend the Southwest Florida hurricane record back thousands of years by means of Paleotempestology. Sediment cores from coastal “blue holes” will be analyzed to reconstruct the history of TCs in the area. This will result in a more robust understanding of the TC frequency distribution along the US coastline, thereby reducing the loss of life and infrastructure attributable to TCs. This project will also connect to the broader risk management and modelling communities. These partnerships will ensure that the paleo research can appropriately attach to catastrophe risk decision-makers. Project data generated will not only be used by the risk industry, but by other stakeholders as well. The other stakeholders include agricultural businesses; habitat restoration groups; coastal land managers; individual property owners, municipalities, scientists, and business. The data can further be used to outreach to emergency managers, the media, community leaders and the community at large. This project will also have a significant impact on diversity in STEM by supporting underrepresented minorities in STEM.This Mid-Career Advancement (MCA) project will involve four different, but highly interconnected and interdisciplinary activities: 1) With the mentorship and collaboration from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) the team will build on Southwest Florida’s long-term TC dataset, by adding new reconstructions from Southwest Florida blue holes; 2) With the mentorship and collaboration from partner Oasis the PI will receive training on the Oasis Loss Modeling Framework (LMF), attend training workshops and deploy models, and learn about how catastrophe (Cat) models are used to inform views of risk; 3) With the mentorship and collaboration from partner Reask the PI will learn how stochastic TC data sets are developed, how they feed into dynamical storm surge models, and how they combine to produce risk estimates. The research will identify what types of storms in stochastic catalogues are able to deposit geologic TC layers and complete sensitivity analyses for field sites of interest; and 4) With the mentorship and collaboration from partner Maximum Information the research will bring new intense TC landfall paleo datasets, that are temporally an order of magnitude greater than the existing instrumental historical record, to risk modeling firms and (re)insurance companies. In summary, the estimated paleo TC return periods calculated during this study will be used in baseline Cat model validation, calibration and deterministic scenario (stress) testing (which inform views of Maximum Probable/Possible Loss).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

热带气旋（TCS）是对人口稠密的沿海社区的严重威胁。对于佛罗里达海岸线尤其如此。沿着佛罗里达海岸，人们和财产的浓度越来越高，导致人类接触TC登陆的迅速增加。伊恩飓风于2022年9月28日在佛罗里达州西南部的海岸登陆。这场风暴列出了所有与飓风有关的三种危害：风，雨和暴风雨潮涌动。但是到目前为止，最大的灾难性影响来自风暴潮的激增。迈尔斯堡海滩上的高水位痕迹到达16英尺附近。伊恩飓风可能是美国历史上最昂贵的自然灾害之一，售价为1,129亿美元。在风险行业中，这种低概率，诸如此类的高影响事件被称为“尾风事件”。尾风的事件通常会引起宽敞的经济混乱，它们通常也与大量毁灭性的生命丧失有关。这项研究将通过古植物学扩大佛罗里达州西南飓风的记录数千年。将分析来自沿海“蓝洞”的沉积物核心，以重建该地区的TCS历史。这将导致对美国海岸线沿线TC频率分布的更深入的理解，从而减少归因于TC的生命和基础设施的损失。该项目还将连接到更广泛的风险管理和建模社区。这些伙伴关系将确保古研究能够适当地与灾难性风险决策者相关。生成的项目数据不仅将由风险行业使用，而且还将由其他利益相关者使用。其他利益相关者包括农业业务；栖息地恢复组；沿海土地经理；个人财产所有人，市政当局，科学家和业务。这些数据可以进一步与紧急情况经理，媒体，社区领导者和整个社区一起宣讲。该项目还将通过支持STEM中代表性不足的少数群体来对STEM的多样性产生重大影响。该中期的进步（MCA）项目将涉及四个不同但高度相互联系的和跨学科的活动：1）与Tooks Holeshophing Institation（Whoi）的长期以来，由NOWS NOWS ELLIDER INDER IND STORTENT ELLIDEN建立在Southwest Florida的Florida florida florida florida florida inter Floriady florida inter inter Floriady florida southers florida inter inter florida inter inter inter florida inter inter。孔； 2）借助合作伙伴OASIS的指导和合作，PI将接受有关OASIS损失建模框架（LMF），参加培训研讨会和部署模型的培训，并了解如何使用灾难（CAT）模型来了解风险的视图； 3）借助合作伙伴的精神训练和协作，PI将学习如何开发随机TC数据集，如何融入动态风暴激增模型以及如何结合以产生风险估计。该研究将确定随机目录中哪些类型的风暴能够沉积地质TC层以及对感兴趣的现场地点的完全敏感性分析； 4）随着合作伙伴最大信息的指导和协作，研究将带来新的Intense TC登陆古数据集，这些数据集暂时比现有的工具历史记录大的数量级，以使建模公司和（重新）保险公司的风险。总而言之，本研究中计算出的估计的古TC回报期将用于基线猫模型验证，校准和确定性场景（压力）测试（这为最大可能/可能的可能损失的最大可能损失的观点提供了信息）。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过使用基金会的知识优点和广泛影响来评估，以评估的支持是宝贵的。