Collaborative Research: Assessing the Causal Influence of Atmospheric Opacity and Sea Ice on Arctic Warming in a Novel Circulation-controlled Framework

合作研究：在新型环流控制框架中评估大气不透明度和海冰对北极变暖的因果影响

• 批准号: 2233421
• 负责人: Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
• 金额: $ 16.1万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-08-01 至 2026-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2233421&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Assessing; Causal; Influence

Over the last 40 years, the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on the planet. This greater-than-global Arctic warming is projected to continue with lasting impacts on human populations, ecosystems, and infrastructure. While the fundamental mechanisms that lead to greater-than-global Arctic warming are known, the mechanisms controlling the magnitude of Arctic warming are harder to constrain. This project is a focused effort on what has and will control Arctic warming from 1980 to 2060. By specifying aspects of the atmospheric conditions that are relatively well constrained (the winds), we will better understand the importance of drivers that are harder to constrain observationally (clouds and sea ice thickness). This work will lead to transformational advances in our understanding of what does and does not control Arctic warming.This project is focused on the following research question: What is the causal influence of sea ice thickness and atmospheric opacity (i.e., clouds) on recent and near-future Arctic warming rates? This research question and associated hypotheses will be assessed in a well-established NSF-funded earth system model (Community Earth System Model, CESM) guided by observations including those from a recent year-long field campaign with substantial in situ observations (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate, MOSAiC). The central outcome will be quantifying the causal influence of two mean state properties (atmospheric opacity, sea ice thickness) on Arctic warming rates from 1980 to 2060 using a novel ‘wind-nudging’ methodology that constrains the large-scale atmospheric circulation. An inquiry-based 2-week middle-high school curriculum will be developed centered around the driving question: How might weather in your area be impacted by the Arctic? The curriculum will be reviewed by experts and disseminated through virtual teacher workshops, enabling hundreds of teachers in North America to bring current Arctic research into their classrooms. The project will also actively engage early career scientists in the research including a Ph.D. student and two summer Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) summer students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在过去的 40 年里，北极的变暖程度超过了地球上任何其他地区，预计这种变暖现象将继续对人类、生态系统和基础设施产生持久影响。众所周知，北极变暖程度超过全球范围，控制北极变暖幅度的机制更难受到限制，该项目的重点是研究从 1980 年到 2060 年控制北极变暖的因素。是在受到良好约束（风）的情况下，我们将更好地理解难以观测约束的驱动因素（云和海冰厚度）的重要性。这项工作将导致我们对控制和不控制北极变暖的理解发生转变。该项目的重点是以下研究问题：海冰厚度和大气不透明度（即云）对近期和不久的将来北极变暖速率的因果影响是什么？该研究问题和相关假设将在一个完善的框架中进行评估。 NSF 资助地球系统模型（社区地球系统模型，CESM）以观测为指导，包括最近一年的实地观测和大量实地观测（北极气候研究多学科漂流观测站，MOSAiC）。使用一种新颖的“风推动”方法来限制大规模大气变化，研究两种平均状态特性（大气不透明度、海冰厚度）对 1980 年至 2060 年北极变暖速率的因果影响将围绕以下主要问题开发基于探究的为期两周的初中课程：北极如何影响您所在地区的天气？ 该课程将由专家审查并通过虚拟教师研讨会进行传播，从而使北美数百名教师将当前的北极研究带入他们的课堂，该项目还将积极吸引早期职业科学家参与研究，其中包括一名博士生和两名暑期本科生（REU）暑期学生。 NSF 的法定使命并已被视为值得通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。