Collaborative Research: Identifying Model Biases in Poleward Heat Transport--Atmosphere-Ocean Partitioning, Trends over the Historical Period and Sub-Seasonal Variability

合作研究：识别向极热传输的模型偏差——大气-海洋划分、历史时期的趋势和次季节变化

• 批准号: 2311540
• 负责人: Aaron Donohoe
• 金额: $ 60.89万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-08-15 至 2026-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2311540&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Identifying; Model; Biases

Winds in the atmosphere and currents in the ocean move heat from the equator to the pole thereby moderating temperatures over Earth’s surface. In the absence of poleward heat transport, the tropics would be uninhabitably warm and sea ice would cover nearly half the planet. Future changes in poleward heat transport rely on coupled (atmosphere/ocean) climate model simulations and have substantial impacts on the spatial structure of projected temperature changes. This project will evaluate if state-of-the-art climate models adequately represent key physical processes responsible for poleward heat transport. Research will be pursued through a model-observation comparison of poleward heat transport at three observable timescales. First, at climatological (long-term averages) timescales the partitioning of poleward heat transport between the atmosphere and ocean will be compared in models and observations. Second, the model simulated long-term trends in poleward heat transport over the last 40 years will be compared to the observational record. Last, the investigators will assess if climate models adequately represent the daily variability of atmospheric heat transport responsible for heat waves. The project will serve a platform for training undergraduate and graduate students and involve outreach activities at local venues.The project will improve the physics of climate models by identifying model biases in the processes responsible for the global scale movement of heat through the climate system at observable timescales. These same physical processes in climate models govern future long-term temperature change and variability with substantial human impact. Additionally, the atmospheric motions that move energy through the climate system also move moisture and, thus, the project results will also improve future predictions of rain and snowfall changes. Lastly, the project directly addresses if models adequately represent the atmospheric processes responsible for heat waves. Identifying model biases in the underlying causes of heatwaves will lead to improved predictions of regional heatwave intensity changes in a warming world. In addition to training undergraduate and graduate students, the investigators will perform public outreach on project-related science concepts to engender enthusiasm amongst younger generations and raise awareness of climate research among the general public.This project is jointly funded by the Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program and Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences to support projects that increase research capabilities, capacity and infrastructure at a wide variety of institution types, as outlined in the GEO EMBRACE DCL.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

大气中的风和海洋的水流从平衡器到杆子移动，从而调节地球表面的温度。在没有极力热传输的情况下，热带将是不居住的温暖，海冰将覆盖几乎一半的星球。极向热传输的未来变化依赖于耦合（大气/海洋）气候模型模拟，并对预计温度变化的空间结构产生了重大影响。该项目将评估最先进的攀岩模型是否适当地代表了负责极热传输的关键物理过程。将通过在三个可观察到的时间尺度上对极向热传输的模型观察比较来进行研究。首先，在气候学（长期平均）时标，将在模型和观测中比较大气和海洋之间的极热传输。其次，该模型模拟了过去40年中极发热传输的长期趋势与观察记录进行比较。最后，研究人员将评估攀岩模型是否适当地代表了负责热浪的大气热传输的每日变异性。该项目将为培训本科生和研究生培训的平台提供一个平台，并在当地场地涉及外展活动。该项目将通过在可观察到的时间尺度上通过气候系统通过气候系统进行全球规模的流动过程中的过程中的模型偏见来改善攀岩模型的物理。攀岩模型中的这些相同的物理过程控制着未来的长期温度变化和可变性，并具有重大的人类影响。此外，通过气候系统移动能量的大气运动也会移动水分，因此，项目结果还将改善对雨水和降雪变化的未来预测。最后，该项目直接解决模型是否充分代表了负责热浪的大气过程。识别热浪根本原因中的模型偏见将改善对变暖世界中区域热量强度变化的预测。除了培训培训本科生和研究生外，调查人员还将对与项目相关的科学概念进行公开宣传，以引起年轻一代之间的热情，并提高公众之间对气候研究的认识。该项目共同资助了气候和大规模动力学计划，并支持大气和地球上的研究能力，以使能力和地理位置上的跨越能力的跨度研究范围的动力学划分，并为跨越的能力提供跨越的能力。 Geo Abrace DCL。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估标准评估被认为是宝贵的支持。