Collaborative Research: Back to the Future: Assimilating Paleo Thinning Rates and Grounding Line Positions to Constrain Future Antarctic Sea Level Contributions

合作研究：回到未来：同化古变薄率和接地线位置以限制未来南极海平面的贡献

• 批准号: 2303345
• 负责人: Jeremy Bassis
• 金额: $ 22.5万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-09-01 至 2026-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2303345&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Back; Future; Assimilating

The Antarctic Ice Sheet has not always been the same shape or size, and past changes have left behind a record of ice mass loss and gain. Our modern observational record indicates mass loss and glacial retreat responses consistent with climatic trends, but the specifics of that retreat, and our projections of future change, remain a tangle of internal dynamics of ice and its interactions with its surroundings. The challenge of making credible projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea-level change from our current generation of ice-sheet models rests on accurately reproducing past changes. This project aims to merge archived constraints on past ice-sheet behavior collected from around, above, and beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet with a state-of-the-art ice-sheet model to improve projections of future sea-level rise. In addition, the project will support intellectual exchange between researchers across every career stage focusing on past glacial reconstructions and future projections as well as lower the barrier to entry into polar sciences by developing modular curricula to be delivered in community college classrooms and online learning environments.With hundreds of constraints on deglacial grounding-line retreat and associated ice-surface lowering around Antarctica, the availability of paleo constraints on past ice sheet behavior no longer limits integrating these observations into modeling efforts. This project will integrate paleo-glaciological observations from the Holocene into the BISICLES model framework used to project future sea level. The goals of this project are to (i) establish the conditions that switched the mode of grounding line migration from retreat to re-advance during the mid-to-late Holocene in West Antarctica; (ii) use differences in forcing, geologic conditions, and geographic conditions between responses in the Amundsen Sea and Ross Sea embayments to investigate the differences in marine ice sheet sensitivity between an "unstable" and "stable" sector of the ice sheet; and (iii) apply the findings of (i) and (ii) to improve constraints on future sea-level projections. Investigating the interplay of external forcing, internal forcing, and geological response to ice-mass loss in West Antarctica is essential for reducing uncertainty in future sea-level-rise projections. This project will employ a multidimensional education plan focused on a mentorship structure that promotes intellectual exchange between researchers across every career stage focusing on paleo-glaciological reconstructions and future projections. The project team will co-produce three educational modules with the Colorado School of Mines Trefny Innovative Instruction Center focused on paleo-glaciological reconstruction, modern glaciological observations, and models of future sea-level rise.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

南极冰盖并不总是相同的形状或尺寸，过去的变化留下了冰质量损失和增益的记录。我们的现代观察记录表明，质量损失和冰川撤退反应与气候趋势一致，但是这种务虚会的细节以及我们对未来变化的预测仍然是冰的内部动态及其与周围环境的相互作用的纠结。从当前一代的冰盖模型中对南极对海平面变化做出可靠的预测的挑战在于准确地重现过去的变化。该项目旨在合并对过去，上方和在南极冰盖下收集的过去的冰盖行为的限制，并与最先进的冰单模型合并，以改善未来海平面上升的预测。此外，该项目将支持每个职业阶段的研究人员之间的智力交流，重点关注过去的冰川重建和未来的预测，并通过开发模块化课程在社区大学教室和在线学习环境中提供的模块化课程来降低进入极地科学的障碍将这些观察结果整合到建模工作中。该项目将将从全新世的古晶金学观察结果整合到用于投射未来海平面的双杆模型框架中。该项目的目标是（i）确定在南极洲西部全新世的中期全新世期间，将接地线迁移的方式从撤退到回流的条件； （ii）在强迫，地质条件和地理条件上使用差异，在阿蒙森海和罗斯海胚胎中的反应之间使用差异来研究冰盖的“不稳定”和“稳定”部门之间的海洋冰盖敏感性差异； （iii）应用（i）和（ii）的发现来改善对未来海平面预测的限制。调查外部强迫，内部强迫和对南极西部冰雪损失的地质反应的相互作用对于减少未来海平面降落的不确定性至关重要。该项目将采用一项多维教育计划，该计划的重点是指导结构，该计划促进了每个职业阶段的研究人员之间的智力交流，重点是古质学重建和未来的预测。该项目团队将与科罗拉多州矿业学院的Trefny创新教学中心共同生产三个教育模块，该中心重点是古胶状学重建，现代冰川学观察和未来海平面上升的模型。该奖NSF的法定任务反映了通过评估基金会的智力效果，反映了NSF的法定任务，并获得了支持的范围。