Collaborative Research: Reconstructing Holocene glacier lengths through time to address climate model-data disagreements

合作研究：随着时间的推移重建全新世冰川长度以解决气候模型数据分歧

• 批准号: 2303294
• 负责人: Nathaniel Lifton
• 金额: $ 21.66万
• 依托单位: Purdue University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-07-01 至 2026-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2303294&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Reconstructing; Holocene; glacier

The ongoing retreat of glaciers worldwide provides a striking visual consequence of modern climate change. How glaciers responded to past climate changes forms the conceptual basis for evaluating their future behavior, which in turn provides critical information for people who depend on the water supply from glaciers for irrigation, consumption, and energy usage. This research is generating new geologic data that document glacier and climate changes in the past ~12,000 across North and South America. The project is evaluating the new geologic data using novel statistical, glaciological, and climatological models to determine why glaciers in the study region may have responded differently to past climate shifts. Outcomes of this work provide valuable information for understanding past glacier changes which will lead to a better ability to assess future changes of those same glaciers. This project provides scientific training and mentoring for multiple undergraduate and graduate students. International collaborations are also being strengthened through university partnerships. Public outreach occurring as part of this project includes curriculum building with K-12 partners, participation in statewide science festivals, and undergraduate mentoring that is engaging with underrepresented students recruited through college level programs.Global mean temperatures from the early to late Holocene have warmed by ~0.5°C based on a recent model-data assimilation. Glaciers are sensitive recorders of such climate change; however, glaciers across North America and at several locations in the Tropics expanded from the early to late Holocene, at odds with this latest climate reconstruction. This research is examining Holocene alpine glacier conditions at six locations extending from Alaska to southern Patagonia to address this apparent discrepancy. Through a combination of bedrock exposure dating and statistical/glaciological modeling, the project is relating the chronology of glacier length changes to past climate conditions to address unresolved questions regarding global, hemispheric, and regional climate changes. The objectives of this research are threefold: 1) constraining glacier length changes with paired 14C/10Be exposure ages at six locations that span a large latitudinal range from North to South America; 2) determining glacier length through time at these six locations by applying a Monte Carlo forward model guided by Bayesian inferences from these newly collected data; and 3) using a glaciological model forced by existing climate simulations and paleo-proxy climate reconstructions to determine plausible climate scenarios that explain the glacier length histories from the data and forward model output.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

全球冰川的持续静修为现代气候变化带来了罢工视觉后果。冰川如何应对过去的气候变化构成了评估其未来行为的概念基础，这反过来又为依赖冰川供水以灌溉，消费和能源使用的人们提供了关键信息。这项研究正在生成新的地质数据，这些数据记录了过去约有12,000个北美地区的冰川和气候变化。该项目正在使用新型的统计，冰川和气候模型评估新的地质数据，以确定为什么研究区域的冰川对过去的气候变化的反应可能有所不同。这项工作的结果为了解过去的冰川变化提供了宝贵的信息，这将提高评估相同冰川的未来变化的能力。该项目为多个本科生和研究生提供了科学培训和心理化。国际合作也通过大学合作伙伴关系得到加强。作为该项目的一部分，发生的公开外展活动包括与K-12合作伙伴的当前建设，参加全州科学节，以及与大学级别的计划招募的人数不足的学生相互招募的本科心理，从最早到晚期，全新世的全新式温度均基于〜0.5°C的模型，该温度的温度降低了。冰川是这种气候变化的敏感记录。但是，北美和热带地区多个地点的冰川从全新世早期扩展到晚期，与最新的气候重建相反。这项研究正在研究从阿拉斯加到南巴塔哥尼亚南部的六个地点的全新世高山冰川条件，以解决这一明显的差异。通过基岩的暴露年代和统计/冰科建模的结合，该项目将冰川长度变化的年代变化与过去的气候条件有关，以解决有关全球，半球和区域气候变化的未解决问题。这项研究的目标是三重的：1）限制冰川长度在六个位置成对的14C/10BE暴露年龄变化，这些位置跨越了从北美到南美的大纬度范围； 2）通过使用这些新收集的数据以贝叶斯推论为指导的蒙特卡洛前进模型来确定冰川长度在这六个位置的时间； 3）使用现有气候模拟和古毒气候重建强迫的冰川模型来确定合理的气候场景，以解释数据和远期模型输出中的冰川长度历史。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并认为通过基金会的知识绩效和广泛的criperia criperia criperia criperia criperia criperia criptia criperia criptia the Iss take of Priews take of Priews。