EAR-Climate: Mountain Glacier Contribution to Sea Level CE 1900-2100

EAR-气候：山地冰川对海平面的贡献 CE 1900-2100

• 批准号: 2218664
• 负责人: Joerg Schaefer
• 金额: $ 270万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2026-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2218664&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAR; Climate; Mountain; Glacier; Contribution

The area and mass of glaciers in mountainous regions have been shrinking dramatically in recent decades, and this accelerating glacier retreat impacts alpine systems and downstream communities dramatically around the globe. These shrinking mountain glaciers may also contribute to sea-level rise, yet the predictions of this influence are much less quantified than those for the polar ice sheets. Reasons for this include: (i) the large number of mountain glaciers and their individual complexities; (ii) modern satellite observations of glacier volume change are mostly limited to the last 20 years, which is not long enough to calibrate glacier dynamic models; (iii) the limitations in computing power to model glacier change for thousands of alpine glaciers and their impacts on the solid-earth response. The goals of the current project are to provide accurate predictions of mountain glacier melt rates across the globe together with the contribution to sea-level rise on the global and local scale, and to evaluate the impacts of glacier change on societies. The latter will include an assessment of risk for communities impacted by changing glaciers together with adaptation strategies such as migration. A documentary film will be prepared that narrates the journey of the glacial meltwater from its birth at the icy peaks of the high Andes all the way to the Pacific Ocean, in turn documenting the impacts on communities from the glacier to the ocean. The film will illustrate the process of building models for improved predictions of downstream effects of changing climate and will be available to a wide audience on web-streaming platforms.The accelerating mass loss of glaciers around the globe is impacting societies and contributing significantly to ongoing and accelerating sea-level rise. Initial estimates predict that mountain glaciers, which are highly sensitive to warming climate, might contribute up to half a meter to sea-level rise, but the uncertainties of these predictions remain considerably higher than those for the polar ice-sheets. This project will integrate glacier observations over the last century, and include them in a global glacier-change time-series. This time series will be developed by artificial intelligence methods, glaciologic modeling through CE 2100, solid earth modeling of isostatic adjustment related to mountain glacier change, and societal impact science that identifies areas of highest societal and economic costs, together with first-order solution strategies. The research will quantify to what degree mountain glacier changes since the end of the Little Ice Age (about CE 1850) are reflected in sea-level rise, and how these environmental changes affect densely populated regions down-stream of glaciated areas and near-shore communities. To achieve this goal, the project will use cutting-edge methodology, from new observations to artificial-intelligence-based modeling to societal impact science tools, that would be widely applicable to other problems at the interface of Earth Science and society.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

近几十年来，山区冰川的面积和质量急剧缩小，冰川加速退缩对全球高山系统和下游社区产生了巨大影响。这些不断缩小的山地冰川也可能导致海平面上升，但对这种影响的预测远不如对极地冰盖的预测那么量化。其原因包括：（i）山地冰川数量众多且各自复杂； (ii) 现代卫星对冰川体积变化的观测大多局限于过去 20 年，这不足以校准冰川动态模型； (iii) 对数千个高山冰川的冰川变化进行建模的计算能力的限制及其对固体地球响应的影响。当前项目的目标是准确预测全球山区冰川融化速度以及对全球和局部范围内海平面上升的贡献，并评估冰川变化对社会的影响。 后者将包括对受冰川变化影响的社区的风险评估以及移民等适应策略。将准备一部纪录片，讲述冰川融水从安第斯山脉冰峰诞生一直到太平洋的旅程，进而记录从冰川到海洋对社区的影响。 该影片将展示建立模型的过程，以改进对气候变化下游影响的预测，并将在网络流媒体平台上向广大观众开放。全球冰川质量的加速流失正在影响社会，并对持续和持续的气候变化做出了重大贡献。海平面加速上升。初步估计，对气候变暖高度敏感的山地冰川可能会导致海平面上升半米，但这些预测的不确定性仍然远高于极地冰盖的预测。该项目将整合上个世纪的冰川观测结果，并将其纳入全球冰川变化时间序列中。 该时间序列将通过人工智能方法、CE 2100 的冰川学建模、与山地冰川变化相关的均衡调整的固体地球建模、识别社会和经济成本最高领域的社会影响科学以及一阶解决方案策略来开发。该研究将量化自小冰河时代结束（大约公元1850年）以来山地冰川的变化在多大程度上反映在海平面上升上，以及这些环境变化如何影响冰川区下游和近岸的人口稠密地区社区。为了实现这一目标，该项目将使用尖端的方法，从新的观测到基于人工智能的建模，再到社会影响科学工具，这些方法将广泛适用于地球科学和社会界面的其他问题。该奖项反映了通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，NSF 的法定使命被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Quantifying Geodetic Mass Balance of the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields Since 1976

量化 1976 年以来巴塔哥尼亚北部和南部冰原的大地测量质量平衡

• DOI: 10.3389/feart.2022.813574
• 发表时间: 2022-04
• 期刊: Frontiers in Earth Science
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: McDonnell, Morgan;Rupper, Summer;Forster, Richard
• 通讯作者: Forster, Richard