Collaborative Research: Understanding the impact of Arctic sea ice loss on summertime climate change

合作研究：了解北极海冰消失对夏季气候变化的影响

• 批准号: 2300037
• 负责人: Tiffany Shaw
• 金额: $ 59.65万
• 依托单位: University of Chicago
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-07-01 至 2026-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2300037&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Understanding; impact; Arctic

The decline of Arctic sea ice is dramatic evidence that the world is warming, as sea ice cover at the end of the melt season has fallen from about 7 million square miles in 1980 to about 5 million in 2022. The loss of ice cover has a warming effect as ice loss exposes the darker ocean surface allowing the ocean to absorb more sunlight. The influence of this warming on weather and climate below the Arctic circle is a topic of great interest, as Arctic warming can influence midlatitude weather by weakening the jet stream and shifting it southward. Most of the research to date has focused on the effect in winter, looking in particular at cold air outbreaks and snowstorms. But recent work by the PI and others suggests that the weakening of the jet stream could also happen in summer, resulting in a weakening of the cyclones and anticyclones that travel along the storm tracks of the middle latitudes. The work also shows that similar effects can occur as a direct response to the warming of the atmosphere by greenhouse gases, thus some effort is required to separate out the effects of sea ice decline.This project addresses the effects of sea ice decline on atmospheric circulation in summer, addressing four questions: 1) To what extent does Arctic sea ice loss affect summer atmospheric circulation, and through what mechanisms? 2) When will the effects on summer circulation become evident? 3) How does the impact of sea ice decline compare to the direct effect of atmospheric warming on summer circulation? 4) What is the effect of Arctic sea ice decline on heat waves and how are the heat waves effects related to the circulation changes?The research is conducted through analysis of climate model simulations generated in the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) and the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), as well as simulations created specifically for the project using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Simulations created for the project are designed to show the separate responses forced by Arctic sea ice decline and the greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. One analysis method developed for the project separates the effects of sea ice decline on cyclones from its effects on anticyclones, which is of interest as anticyclones are associated with summer heat waves.The work is of societal as well as scientific interest given the need to prepare for and adapt to the consequences of climate change. The possible effect of Arctic sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and related extreme weather has attracted considerable attention, both in the scientific community and the media, thus better basic science understanding of the likely consequences of sea ice decline is highly desirable. The project would also provide support and training to a graduate student and recruit an undergraduate student through the Leadership Alliance, an organization created to promote diversity in higher-level education and research.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

北极海冰的衰落表明世界正在变暖，因为融化季节结束时的海冰覆盖量从1980年的约700万平方英里降至2022年的约500万平方英里。冰盖的损失具有变暖的效果，因为冰的损失暴露了较深的海洋表面，使海面吸收了更多的阳光。这种变暖对北极圈以下天气和气候的影响是一个引起人们关注的话题，因为北极变暖会通过削弱喷气流并向南移动来影响中纬度天气。 迄今为止，大多数研究都集中在冬季的效果上，尤其是寒冷的空气爆发和暴风雪。 但是PI和其他人最近的工作表明，喷气流的减弱也可能在夏季发生，导致沿着中纬度的风暴轨道传播的旋风和反气旋削弱。 这项工作还表明，与温室气体对大气变暖的直接反应可能会发生类似的影响，因此需要一些努力来分离海冰衰落的影响。该项目解决了海冰衰落对夏季大气循环的影响，解决了四个问题，解决了四个问题：1）北极海冰损失在多大程度上影响夏季大气循环以及通过什么机构？ 2）何时对夏季循环的影响变得明显？ 3）海冰的影响与大气变暖对夏季循环的直接影响相比如何？ 4) What is the effect of Arctic sea ice decline on heat waves and how are the heat waves effects related to the circulation changes?The research is conducted through analysis of climate model simulations generated in the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) and the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), as well as simulations created specifically for the project using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). 为该项目创建的模拟旨在显示北极海冰衰落和大气温暖的温暖而强迫的单独响应。 为该项目开发的一种分析方法将海冰衰减对旋风的影响与对反气旋的影响分开，这是对旋风的影响，因为反气旋与夏季热浪有关。鉴于需要准备并适应气候变化的后果，这项工作具有社会和科学意义。 在科学界和媒体中，北极海冰损失对大气循环和相关的极端天气的可能影响引起了人们的关注，因此非常需要对基础科学了解海冰下降的可能后果。 该项目还将为研究生提供支持和培训，并通过领导联盟招募本科生，该组织旨在促进高级教育和研究的多样性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的审查标准通过评估来通过评估来支持的。