CAREER: Hydrogeologic implications of permafrost thaw - Developing a process-based understanding of biophysical controls and educational tools for rural communities

职业：永久冻土融化的水文地质影响 - 为农村社区建立对生物物理控制和教育工具的基于过程的理解

• 批准号: 2235308
• 负责人: Sarah Evans
• 金额: $ 49.97万
• 依托单位: Appalachian State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-01-15 至 2028-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2235308&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Hydrogeologic; implications; permafrost; thaw

Increasing air temperatures in the Arctic are causing frozen ground known as permafrost to thaw. As permafrost thaws, liquid water can more easily travel below ground, increasing fresh groundwater availability. For the millions of people who live above permafrost, increase groundwater availability is beneficial as groundwater is less susceptible to contamination than surface water. Despite this known link between permafrost thaw and groundwater flow, permafrost regions are often excluded or oversimplified in large-scale groundwater studies, creating a critical gap in our knowledge of how climate warming will impact water resources. This project will integrate data collected across permafrost landscapes, numerical models, and statistical analyses to generate a conceptual framework on how warming air temperatures in the Arctic impact groundwater availability. Results will be used to create a permafrost hydrology educational module for rural Alaska Native middle school students as part of the Alaska Native Science and Engineering Program, to produce a children’s book about hydrology to increase a child’s sense of science identity, and expose undergraduate students at a public primarily undergraduate institution in the rural southeastern US to permafrost hydrology through the development of new courses, course modules, and training undergraduate researchers from underrepresented groups.Predicting future groundwater availability in the Arctic is complex due to nonlinear and unconstrained feedbacks between permafrost thaw and biophysical changes that affect snow distribution and ground temperatures, such as shifting rainfall extremes, subsiding microtopography, and shrub expansion. To address these challenges, this research will (1) determine the role of biophysical changes on groundwater flow in permafrost, and (2) quantify groundwater flow and availability in response to current and future climate perturbations by combining statistical analyses with an advanced groundwater-permafrost numerical model informed by existing spatially distributed hydrologic and remotely sensed data sets. In addition to increasing knowledge on groundwater availability in the Arctic, findings from this project will enhance understanding of saturation-controlled carbon dioxide and methane export hotspots and aid in anticipating at-risk Arctic infrastructure collapse due to groundwater flow. Project results will also be used by rural education partners in Alaska and the southeastern US, a K12 education specialist, and undergraduate students majoring in STEM, fine arts, and education to design and disseminate educational activities for rural communities.This award is co-funded by the Hydrologic Sciences and Artic Natural Sciences programsThis award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

北极气温升高导致永久冻土层融化，随着永久冻土层融化，液态水可以更容易地流到地下，从而增加了生活在永久冻土层上方的数百万人的地下水供应量。地下水比地表水更不容易受到污染，尽管永久冻土融化和地下水流之间存在已知的联系，但永久冻土地区往往被大规模排除或过于简单化。地下水研究，在我们关于气候变暖将如何影响水资源的知识方面造成了重大差距。该项目将整合从永久冻土景观、数值模型和统计分析中收集的数据，以生成有关北极气温升高如何影响地下水的概念框架。研究结果将用于为阿拉斯加原住民农村中学生创建一个永久冻土水文学教育模块，作为阿拉斯加原住民科学与工程计划的一部分，制作一本有关水文学的儿童读物，以提高孩子的科学认同感，并让本科生了解相关知识。学生在一个通过开发新课程、课程模块和培训来自代表性不足群体的本科生研究人员，美国东南部农村的公立主要本科院校了解永久冻土水文学。由于永久冻土融化和生物物理之间的非线性和无约束反馈，预测北极未来地下水的可用性是复杂的影响雪分布和地面温度的变化，例如极端降雨量变化、微地形下沉和灌木扩张，为了应对这些挑战，本研究将 (1) 确定生物物理变化对影响的作用。永久冻土中的地下水流量；(2) 除了增加现有的空间分布水文和遥感数据集之外，还通过将统计分析与先进的地下水-永久冻土数值模型相结合，量化地下水流量和可用性，以应对当前和未来的气候扰动。该项目的研究结果将加深对北极地下水可用性的了解，增强对饱和度控制的二氧化碳和甲烷输出热点的了解，并有助于预测因地下水流而导致的北极基础设施崩溃的风险。供阿拉斯加和美国东南部的农村教育合作伙伴、K12 教育专家以及 STEM、美术和教育专业的本科生使用，为农村社区设计和传播教育活动。该奖项由水文科学基金会共同资助该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。