New perspectives on Arctic Sea Ice Variability in the 20th Century

20世纪北极海冰变化的新视角

• 批准号: 2213988
• 负责人: Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
• 金额: $ 36.99万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2213988&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: New; perspectives; Arctic; Sea; Ice

This project will further our understanding of Arctic sea ice in the 20th century and how it interacted with the atmosphere and ocean. Scientific understanding Arctic sea-ice variability is limited by the relatively short period of continuous monitoring by satellites (which covers 1979 to present) and incomplete sea ice and atmospheric observations for the first half of the 20th century. This project will produce a new, physically realistic reconstruction of Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperatures during the 20th century and use it to study Arctic sea ice during the Early 20th century Warming (ETCW), a particularly interesting period between 1915-1940 when the Arctic warmed significantly. The ETCW is a particularly interesting period, as it is well established that during 1915-1940 the Arctic warmed significantly, but reconstructions of sea-ice extent during that time do not show a realistic corresponding sea ice loss due to poor sea ice data availability. In addition, widely used 20th century reanalysis also fail to capture the ETCW in the Arctic, most likely due to the use of these sea ice reconstructions as boundary conditions. Thus, to study the ETCW and pre-satellite 20th century Arctic climate variability, one must look to other tools. This project will first create a physically consistent reconstruction of the 20th century Arctic sea ice-ocean system using a combination of nudged-circulation fully coupled earth system modeling simulations and ensemble data assimilation. Second, as the ETCW is identified as one of the largest episodes of multi-decadal Arctic climate variability in the last millennium and its mechanisms are still poorly understood, the project will investigate the mechanisms that drove the ETCW through the following research questions: what are the roles of the Atlantic and Pacific in forcing the ETCW?, and what is the role of sea ice loss in driving the ETCW? The new Arctic sea ice-ocean system reconstruction will be made available to the research community through the Arctic Data Center. The project will support an early career researcher and a graduate student.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目将进一步了解20世纪北极海冰，以及它如何与大气和海洋相互作用。科学理解北极海冰可变性受卫星连续监测（涵盖1979年的连续监测）的限制，以及20世纪上半叶的海冰和大气观测不完整。该项目将在20世纪对北极海冰和海面温度进行新的，物理上现实的重建，并在20世纪初期使用它来研究北极海冰（ETCW），这是1915 - 1940年之间特别有趣的时期。 ETCW是一个特别有趣的时期，因为在1915 - 1940年期间，北极升温了，但由于海冰数据的可用性差而导致海冰范围的重建并未显示出现实的海冰损失。此外，使用的20世纪重新分析也无法捕获北极中的ETCW，这很可能是由于将这些海冰重建用作边界条件所致。因此，要研究20世纪北极气候变异性的ETCW和卫星前，必须寻找其他工具。该项目将首先使用轻度循环完全耦合的接地系统建模模拟和集合数据同化的组合，对20世纪北极海冰系统进行物理一致的重建。 Second, as the ETCW is identified as one of the largest episodes of multi-decadal Arctic climate variability in the last millennium and its mechanisms are still poorly understood, the project will investigate the mechanisms that drove the ETCW through the following research questions: what are the roles of the Atlantic and Pacific in forcing the ETCW?, and what is the role of sea ice loss in driving the ETCW?新的北极海冰海洋系统重建将通过北极数据中心提供给研究社区。该项目将支持早期的职业研究员和研究生。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的评论标准来评估值得支持的。

项目成果

Monthly Arctic Sea‐Ice Prediction With a Linear Inverse Model

使用线性逆模型进行每月北冰洋冰预测

• DOI: 10.1029/2022gl101656
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Brennan, M. Kathleen;Hakim, Gregory J.;Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward
• 通讯作者: Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward

The Impact of Winds on AMOC in a Fully‐Coupled Climate Model

全耦合气候模型中风对 AMOC 的影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2022gl101203
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Roach, Lettie A.;Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward;Ragen, Sarah;Cheng, Wei;Armour, Kyle C.;Bitz, Cecilia M.
• 通讯作者: Bitz, Cecilia M.