Collaborative Research: MRA: Estimating and forecasting nonstationary, multi-scale climate and land-use effects on avian communities

合作研究：MRA：估计和预测非平稳、多尺度气候和土地利用对鸟类群落的影响

• 批准号: 2213565
• 负责人: Elise Zipkin
• 金额: $ 72.84万
• 依托单位: Michigan State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-01-15 至 2027-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2213565&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; MRA; Estimating; forecasting

Birds are declining worldwide, with an estimated loss of three billion individuals in North America alone over the last 50 years. The goal of this project is to examine how two major global change drivers, climate and land-use change, have affected – and will continue to affect – breeding birds across the United States. The research combines bird observations from four nationwide data sources (National Ecological Observatory Network [NEON], eBird, Breeding Bird Survey, and National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring Program) to estimate the historical impacts of climate and land-use change on individual species’ occurrences and biodiversity metrics over the last two decades for hundreds of species within six avian communities: eastern forests, western forests, aridlands, habitat generalists, grasslands, and urban/suburban. Using estimates from the recent past, the project will then forecast bird occurrences and distributions under a range of projected climate and land-use scenarios during the mid-century and end-of-century. Forecasts will be used to identify vulnerable species and bird communities at multiple spatial scales across the United States. Species forecasts will account for multiple sources of uncertainty, which is critical for understanding where conservation efforts could have the greatest impact in the face of ongoing global change. Findings from this work will be available via a web-based tool, which will provide the public and resource managers with detailed information on both vulnerable and resilient bird communities to enhance avian stewardship nationwide. A post-doc and graduate student will be trained in data science and statistical methods. This research focuses on evaluating and forecasting the occurrence dynamics of both individual species and entire ecological communities by quantifying the multi-scale effects of environmental drivers, while simultaneously merging independent data sources, via development of a ‘macrosystems integrated community occupancy model.’ The model will be applied to North American avifauna to examine the effects of several climate and land-use variables on the dynamics of species across biogeographical communities in the continental United States throughout the 21st century. The results will lead to (1) a macroscale understanding of bird species’ distributions and biodiversity metrics during the last two decades; and (2) forecasts of distribution dynamics from local to regional scales across the continental United States under plausible climate and land-use scenarios, allowing for assessments of species and community vulnerabilities to potential global changes. The methodological approaches developed during this project will expand the scope of community-level analyses to encompass macroscale drivers of spatiotemporal biodiversity changes during an era of accelerated species loss.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

全球范围内的鸟类数量正在减少，在过去 50 年中，仅北美地区就有 30 亿只鸟类减少。该项目的目标是研究气候和土地利用变化这两个主要的全球变化驱动因素已经和将如何影响。该研究结合了来自四个全国性数据源（国家生态观测站网络 [NEON]、eBird、繁殖鸟类调查和国家公园管理局清查和监测计划）的鸟类观测结果，以估计鸟类的历史影响。气候和过去二十年中六个鸟类群落内数百个物种的土地利用变化：东部森林、西部森林、干旱地、栖息地综合体、草原和城市/郊区使用最近的估计。然后，该项目将预测本世纪中叶和本世纪末一系列预计气候和土地利用情况下的鸟类出现和分布。预测将用于识别不同场景中多个空间尺度的脆弱物种和鸟类群落。美国.物种预测将考虑多种不确定性来源，这对于了解面对持续的全球变化，保护工作可以在哪些方面产生最大影响至关重要，这项工作的结果将通过基于网络的工具提供，该工具将向公众提供。资源管理人员将获得有关脆弱和有恢复力的鸟类群落的详细信息，以加强全国范围内的鸟类管理。这项研究的重点是评估和预测单个物种和鸟类的发生动态。通过量化环境的多尺度影响来评估整个生态群落通过开发“宏观系统综合群落占用模型”，同时合并独立数据源。该模型将应用于北美鸟类，以研究多种气候和土地利用变量对生物地理群落物种动态的影响研究结果将有助于（1）对过去二十年中鸟类物种的分布和生物多样性指标进行宏观了解；（2）对从地方到区域的分布动态进行预测。该项目开发的方法将扩大群落层面分析的范围，以涵盖时空的宏观驱动因素。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。