NNA Research: The Greenland Hazards Project

NNA 研究：格陵兰灾害项目

• 批准号: 2127439
• 负责人: Michael Willis
• 金额: $ 299.85万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2127439&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NNA; Research; Greenland; Hazards; Project

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. This Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region, and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, enhances efforts in formal and informal education, and integrates the co-production of knowledge where appropriate. This award fulfills part of that aim by addressing interactions among the natural environment, social systems, and the built environment in the following NNA focus areas: Arctic Residents, Data and Observation, Education, and Resilient Infrastructure.As the Arctic warms, the environment is rapidly changing; ice sheets, ice caps, and glaciers are thinning and receding; and permafrost is degrading. In some areas, such as southeastern Alaska and Greenland, these changes can trigger landslides, which in turn can generate localized tsunami-like waves when the landslides flow into fjords and other coastal waters. Since 1995, several coastal landslides have triggered tsunami-like waves, tragically resulting in the loss of lives, damage to infrastructure, and the abandonment of communities in western Greenland. This project is carefully mapping how Greenland is changing in response to ice thinning and is exploring the developing risk of landslides and other hazards. The research integrates local observations made by Greenlandic people in their communities with data collected through advanced remote sensing to learn how hazards evolve over time. The collaboration between US and Greenlandic scientists and Greenlandic residents will be critical to ensure that the research addresses community needs. This project is providing the first Greenland-wide analysis of unstable land and how hazards affect infrastructure and society, while prototyping a monitoring system that could provide warning of approaching large waves. Researchers are examining and modeling high energy events such as rockslides and avalanches to ascertain their potential tsunami threats to communities around the country. The project team hypothesizes that the known distribution of recorded landslides is controlled by rock type, slope and aspect and then by proximity to retreating glaciers, changing permafrost, temperatures and precipitation. Satellite radar, optical imagery and topographic differencing are being used to investigate geophysical changes and how they alter hazards on regional scales. On local scales, drone surveys are examining permafrost changes and rock instabilities on seasonal to sub-daily timescales. Machine learning and modeling are being applied at all scales to identify patterns of change. In addition, a qualitative study is advancing our understanding of the communication processes through which scientific and Greenlandic communities give meaning to environmental changes and hazards through diverse ways of knowing and multiple forms of expertise. The project is building capacity for geodesy, remote sensing, and machine learning through a series of workshops in Greenland. A multilingual website is providing a source of open, intuitively understandable, and easily accessible information that municipalities can use to inform decision making and policy. The project is developing a communication-theory based virtual workshop on community engagement at annual NNA meetings that is being shared with program managers at NSF. The project data are useful to a wide range of disciplines, with work relevant to solid earth geophysics, glaciology, oceanography, natural hazards, and the field of communication.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

航行新北极 (NNA) 是 NSF 的 10 大创意之一。 NNA 项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。这项北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。 NNA 授权从地方到国际范围内的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，加强正规和非正规教育的努力，并在适当的情况下整合知识的共同生产。该奖项通过解决以下 NNA 重点领域的自然环境、社会系统和建筑环境之间的相互作用来实现该目标的一部分：北极居民、数据和观测、教育和弹性基础设施。随着北极变暖，环境快速变化；冰盖、冰盖和冰川正在变薄和消退；永久冻土正在退化。在一些地区，例如阿拉斯加东南部和格陵兰岛，这些变化可能引发山体滑坡，当山体滑坡流入峡湾和其他沿海水域时，又会产生局部海啸般的波浪。自1995年以来，数次沿海山体滑坡引发了类似海啸的巨浪，悲惨地造成了人员伤亡、基础设施损坏以及格陵兰岛西部社区的废弃。该项目正在仔细绘制格陵兰岛因冰层变薄而发生的变化，并探索山体滑坡和其他灾害的发展风险。该研究将格陵兰人在其社区进行的当地观察与通过先进遥感收集的数据相结合，以了解危害如何随着时间的推移而演变。美国和格陵兰科学家以及格陵兰居民之间的合作对于确保研究满足社区需求至关重要。该项目首次对格陵兰岛范围内的不稳定土地以及灾害如何影响基础设施和社会进行分析，同时构建了一个可以对即将到来的巨浪发出警告的监测系统原型。研究人员正在研究和模拟高能事件，例如岩崩和雪崩，以确定它们对全国各地社区的潜在海啸威胁。项目团队假设，已记录的滑坡的已知分布受岩石类型、坡度和坡向控制，然后受靠近退缩冰川、变化的永久冻土、温度和降水的控制。卫星雷达、光学图像和地形差异被用来研究地球物理变化以及它们如何改变区域尺度的危害。在当地范围内，无人机勘测正在检查季节到亚日时间尺度上的永久冻土变化和岩石不稳定性。机器学习和建模正在各个层面上应用来识别变化模式。此外，一项定性研究正在加深我们对科学界和格陵兰社区通过不同的认知方式和多种形式的专业知识赋予环境变化和危害意义的沟通过程的理解。该项目正在通过在格陵兰岛举办的一系列研讨会来建设大地测量、遥感和机器学习方面的能力。多语言网站提供开放、直观易懂且易于访问的信息来源，市政当局可以利用这些信息来为决策和政策提供信息。该项目正在开发一个基于通信理论的虚拟研讨会，内容涉及年度 NNA 会议上的社区参与，该研讨会正在与 NSF 的项目经理共享。该项目数据对广泛的学科有用，涉及固体地球物理学、冰川学、海洋学、自然灾害和通信领域的相关工作。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。