Collaborative Research: Improving Our Understanding of Supercells from Convection Initiation to Tornadogenesis via Innovative Observations, Simulations, and Analysis Techniques

合作研究：通过创新的观测、模拟和分析技术提高我们对超级单体从对流引发到龙卷风发生的理解

基本信息

批准号：
2150792
负责人：
Paul Markowski
金额：
$ 111.4万
依托单位：
Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2022-04-01 至 2025-03-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2150792&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Improving Our Understanding

项目摘要

Decades of study of supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes have resulted in better forecasts, better warnings, and increased public safety. However, despite this progress, there are still fundamental questions about tornado formation and the initiation of storms in environments that are conducive for tornadoes. This project will use new observations and new analysis techniques to uncover answers about the origin of tornado rotation and whether surface friction is an important factor, and how wind changes with altitude affect the initial development of thunderstorms. The results of the research may provide forecasters with more clues to why some storms form tornadoes while others do not within the same environment. The researchers also plan to contribute to public understanding of science through various outreach mechanisms, and will train multiple graduate students.This project focuses on a range of questions related to supercell thunderstorms, from initiation to tornado formation. The tornado-related research is guided by three core questions: 1) How important is baroclinically generated vorticity to the development of tornadoes, 2) Is the underlying surface a critical vorticity source for tornadoes, and 3) Why do supercell storms in similar environments often behave so differently? To address these questions, the research team will interrogate a number of well-observed tornadic storms from the VORTEX-II and TORUS field campaigns. Diabatic Lagrangian analysis (DLA) techniques will be conducted on multi-Doppler radar data and combined with swarm-sonde thermodynamic observations to create 4D thermodynamic and velocity fields, which will then be used in material circuit analyses to demonstrate the baroclinic origins of low-level circulation. Additionally, the material circuit analyses will be used on an existing 25-member ensemble of 75-m resolution numerical model simulations. New simulations will be conducted with a more generalized non-equilibrium lower boundary condition, using the two-layer model concept from the engineering community to address the frictional component of the project. New modeling simulations will also be conducted to address uncertainties related to convective initiation in shear and environmental controls on convective modes. The research team plans to target the following questions for the convective initiation (CI) work: 1) What are the variety of ways that vertical wind shear inhibits or facilitates CI, 2) How does their relative importance depend on the altitude and depth of the shear, and on the characteristics of the airmass boundary involved in CI, and 3) To what extent do the characteristics of an airmass boundary, such as its horizontal temperature gradient, depth, and forward speed relative to the environmental winds above the boundary, influence the organization of convective storms?This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

对超级电池雷暴和龙卷风的数十年研究导致了更好的预测，更好的警告和增加的公共安全。但是，尽管取得了这种进步，但仍然存在有关龙卷风形成以及有利于龙卷风的环境中的风暴的基本问题。该项目将使用新的观察结果和新的分析技术来发现有关龙卷风旋转起源以及表面摩擦是否是重要因素，以及随着高度的变化影响雷暴的初始发展。研究结果可能会为预报员提供更多的线索，以了解为什么有些风暴会形成龙卷风，而另一些风暴不在同一环境中。研究人员还计划通过各种外展机制为公众对科学的理解做出贡献，并将培训多个研究生。该项目重点介绍了一系列与超级雷暴有关的问题，从启动到龙卷风的形成。与龙卷风相关的研究以三个核心问题为指导：1）压力线条产生的涡度对龙卷风的发展有多重要，2）是基础表面是龙卷风的关键涡度来源，而3）为什么在类似环境中超级电池风暴在类似的环境中往往如此不同？为了解决这些问题，研究团队将从涡流II和Torus Field活动中询问许多观察到的龙卷风风暴。绝热的拉格朗日分析（DLA）技术将在多普勒雷达数据上进行，并与蜂群sonde热力学观测相结合，以创建4D热力学和速度场，然后将其用于材料电路分析中，以证明低级循环的冰淇淋循环素。此外，材料电路分析将用于75米分辨率数值模型模拟的现有25人集合。将使用工程界的两层模型概念来解决项目的摩擦组成部分，以更普遍的非平衡下边界条件进行新的模拟。还将进行新的建模模拟，以解决与对流模式的剪切和环境控制中的对流启动有关的不确定性。 The research team plans to target the following questions for the convective initiation (CI) work: 1) What are the variety of ways that vertical wind shear inhibits or facilitates CI, 2) How does their relative importance depend on the altitude and depth of the shear, and on the characteristics of the airmass boundary involved in CI, and 3) To what extent do the characteristics of an airmass boundary, such as its horizontal temperature gradient, depth, and forward speed relative to在边界上方的环境风，影响对流风暴的组织？该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响审查标准通过评估来支持的。