Collaborative Research: A global assessment of annual to decadal sea level predictability

合作研究：对每年至十年海平面可预测性的全球评估

• 批准号: 2148596
• 负责人: Stephen Yeager
• 金额: $ 19.18万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-02-15 至 2025-01-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2148596&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; global; assessment; annual

This study will determine the robustness of our current ability to predict sea-level variability at temporal scales from annual to decadal and at spatial scales that span the globe. The study will use a community model that considers processes in the ocean and in the atmosphere to simulate sea-level variability. The model results will be compared to data that are already available and determine the skill of the simulations and predictions, while elucidating the causes for model-data disparities. Ultimately, the study will propose whether sea-level variability can be described, and its predictability can be achieved, with oceanic and atmospheric processes. Appropriate representation of sea-level variability and predictability has fundamental implications for coastal communities worldwide. The principal investigator has ongoing efforts with government and private entities related to sea-level predictability.This project will quantify the ability of models to simulate and predict annual to decadal sea-level variability at a global scale. The skill of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) will be determined with horizontal resolutions of 1 and 0.1 degrees, while combining model results with tide gauge data, altimetry measurements and atmospheric pressure reanalysis. A mechanistic understanding of sea-level variability will be achieved by partitioning of remote and local forcing, as well as via the propagation of sea-level anomalies throughout the ocean. Sea-level anomalies will be deconstructed into various components: static vs dynamic, externally forced and unforced, manometric vs steric, local vs remote forcing. Intercomparisons of model simulations will identify the effects of model errors and random variability on the predictive skill throughout Earth. The mechanistic analyses will increase reliability of predictions; recommend observational and model experiments; and suggest limitations of ocean and climate variability representations. In terms of broader impacts, the project will have impacts on economic, cultural and ecological resources. The project will represent a collaboration with NCAR, facilitating the model (CESM) implementation. As predictions of sea-level variability are essential for coastal planning, this project will contribute to assess errors of CESM at scales of annual to decadal and relate them to heat, momentum and freshwater fluxes, advection and wave propagation. The PI has ongoing predictability efforts with local and state governments, as well as with the private sector.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这项研究将确定我们目前在跨世界范围内以及跨过地球的空间尺度下预测海平面变异性的能力的鲁棒性。该研究将使用一个社区模型，该模型考虑海洋和大气中的过程来模拟海平面的可变性。将将模型结果与已经可用的数据进行比较，并确定模拟和预测的技能，同时阐明模型数据差异的原因。最终，该研究将通过海洋和大气过程提出是否可以描述海平面变异性，并可以实现其可预测性。对海平面的可变性和可预测性的适当表示对全球沿海社区具有根本性。首席调查员已经与与海平面可预测性有关的政府和私人实体进行了持续的努力。该项目将量化模型在全球范围内模拟和预测年度衰老海平面变异性的能力。社区地球系统模型（CESM）的技能将以1和0.1度的水平分辨率确定，同时将模型结果与潮汐量规数据，高度计测量和大气压重新分析相结合。通过分区和局部强迫以及通过整个海洋的海平面异常的传播，将对海平面变异性进行机械理解。海平面的异常将被解构为各种组成部分：静态与动态，外部强迫和不强制，经过测量与空间，本地与远程强迫。模型仿真的截面将确定模型误差和随机变异性对整个地球的预测技能的影响。机械分析将提高预测的可靠性；建议观察和模型实验；并提出了海洋和气候变异性表示的局限性。就更广泛的影响而言，该项目将对经济，文化和生态资源产生影响。该项目将代表与NCAR的合作，从而促进模型（CESM）实施。由于对海平面变异性的预测对于沿海规划至关重要，因此该项目将有助于评估年度至际际年on的CESM的错误，并将其与热，动量和淡水通量，对流和波浪传播相关联。 PI在地方和州政府以及私营部门都进行了持续的可预测性努力。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估标准通过评估来支持的。