Collaborative Research: GRate – Integrating data and modeling to quantify rates of Greenland Ice Sheet change, Holocene to future

合作研究：GRate — 整合数据和模型来量化格陵兰冰盖变化率、全新世到未来

• 批准号: 2105805
• 负责人: Eric Steig
• 金额: $ 98.36万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2105805&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; GRate; Integrating; data

The Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced devastating melt in recent years. Recent scientific reports highlight how vulnerable the Greenland Ice Sheet is to Arctic climate change and draw a dire picture of the impact of sea-level rise. In order to equip society with the best forecasts of sea level rise for planning, scientists need to improve the ability to simulate – or model – the response of ice sheets to climate change. For this project, scientists from different branches of ice-sheet research will work together to improve ice sheet modelling. The researchers will leverage recent scientific advances to model the entire Greenland Ice Sheet in order to investigate long-term ice-sheet sensitivity to changes taking places in the ocean and atmosphere. The research group is committed to creating an inclusive environment where all team members can learn and excel. The team contains diversity in ethnicity, gender and rank, and will train six early career scholars, recruiting specifically from groups underrepresented in the geosciences, which is among the least diverse STEM fields in the U.S. Results will be made publicly available and will facilitate a broad range of future research about the Arctic system, including ice sheet modeling, model spin-up, paleoclimate reconstruction/synthesis and glacier history. To elevate the capacity of outreach and education programs developed during their first project, the team will build on their “Scientists are Superheroes” outreach program and leverage other, existing outreach frameworks, including making connections with Greenlandic communities and with high school student intern programs at their universities linked to The Young Women’s Leadership School (Bronx, NY) and the Spring Valley (NY) branch of the NAACP, coordinated by our dedicated project educator and outreach specialist. Reducing uncertainties in ice-sheet model predictions is crucial in society’s handling of the sea level crisis. Uncertainties related to ice-sheet instability arise from limited observations, inadequate model representation of ice-sheet processes, and limited understanding of the complex interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets. How atmospheric and oceanic forcing vary through time, and at what timescales each are capable of forcing rapid change, are critical for predicting future ice mass loss, but scientists have been observing ice sheet change for only a short period of time (decades). The PIs propose to scrutinize Greenland Ice Sheet change spanning from the beginning of the Holocene (12,000 years ago) to 2100 CE, making it possible to evaluate the varying roles of atmospheric and ocean forcing on decadal-to-centennial timescales relevant for the future Greenland Ice Sheet evolution. The PIs will utilize their established multi-disciplinary collaboration to combine ice sheet modelling, climate forcing and reconstructions of past ice-sheet change. This will position the team to make predictions of future ice sheet change that are grounded in Greenland Ice Sheet behavior during past climate swings that occurred prior to our brief window of modern observation. The work will lead to lasting products to serve the community's collective effort to better understand ice sheet change: 1) a state-of-the-art ice-sheet model optimized for simulations over long timescales, 2) a Holocene-through-modern set of atmospheric and ocean state estimates optimized for forcing an ice-sheet model, and 3) a database of past-ice sheet configurations and paleoclimate records formatted for model-data comparison.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

近年来，格陵兰冰盖经历了毁灭性的融化，最近的科学报告强调了格陵兰冰盖对北极气候变化的脆弱性，并描绘了海平面上升的可怕影响，以便为社会提供最佳预测。为了规划海平面上升，科学家需要提高模拟或模拟冰盖对气候变化的响应的能力。在这个项目中，来自冰盖研究不同分支的科学家将共同努力改进冰盖建模。研究人员将利用最新的科学进展来模拟整个格陵兰冰盖，以调查冰盖对海洋和大气变化的长期敏感性 该研究小组致力于创造一个包容性的环境，让所有团队成员都能学习和超越 该团队包含种族多样性。 、性别和级别，并将培训六名早期职业学者，专门从地球科学领域代表性不足的群体中招募，地球科学是美国最不多样化的 STEM 领域之一。结果将公开发布，并将促进有关该领域的广泛的未来研究。北极系统，包括冰盖建模、模型旋转、古气候重建/综合和冰川历史为了提高第一个项目中开发的外展和教育项目的能力，该团队将在“科学家是超级英雄”外展项目的基础上建立并利用其他现有的外展框架。 ，包括与格陵兰社区以及与青年女性领导学校（纽约州布朗克斯）和全国有色人种协进会斯普林谷（纽约州）分支机构相关的大学的高中生实习项目建立联系，由我们专门的项目教育者协调减少冰盖模型预测的不确定性对于社会处理海平面危机至关重要。与冰盖不稳定相关的不确定性源于有限的观测、对冰盖过程的不充分的模型描述以及对复杂情况的有限理解。大气、海洋和冰盖之间的相互作用如何随时间变化，以及各自在什么时间尺度上能够迫使冰盖发生快速变化，对于预测未来冰块的损失至关重要，但科学家们一直在观察冰盖的变化。只有很短的时间PI建议仔细研究从全新世初期（12,000年前）到公元2100年的格陵兰冰盖变化，从而可以评估大气和海洋强迫在十年到百年时间尺度上的不同作用。与未来格陵兰冰盖演化相关的研究课题将利用其已建立的多学科合作，将冰盖建模、气候强迫和过去冰盖的重建结合起来。这将使团队能够根据格陵兰冰盖在我们短暂的现代观测窗口之前发生的气候波动期间的行为来预测未来的冰盖变化。这项工作将产生持久的产品，为社区的集体服务。努力更好地了解冰盖变化：1）最先进的冰盖模型，针对长时间尺度的模拟进行了优化，2）一套全新世到现代的大气和海洋状态估计，针对迫使冰盖进行了优化板材模型，以及3) 过去冰盖构造和古气候记录的数据库，其格式用于模型数据比较。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。