Storm-environment interactions controlling the probability of supercell tornadogenesis

风暴-环境相互作用控制超级单体龙卷风发生的概率

• 批准号: 2130936
• 负责人: Matthew Parker
• 金额: $ 68.7万
• 依托单位: North Carolina State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2130936&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Storm; environment; interactions; controlling; probability

The goal of this project is to improve our understanding of why some supercells (rotating thunderstorms) produce tornadoes and others that form in very similar atmospheric conditions do not. The specific chain of processes that result in tornado formation (vs. failure) are known to be highly sensitive to seemingly minor details within the environment and the storm itself. While our community has made substantial progress at forecasting tornadoes in recent decades, we have yet to explain why tornadoes so frequently fail to form within seemingly favorable atmospheric conditions. The specific aim of this research is to understand better these failure points in tornado formation. Without such progress, the ability to forecast and produce timely warnings for tornadoes (and avoid false alarms) is unlikely to further improve. The leading scientists for this project will involve students from diverse background and weather forecasters from the National Weather Service in this research. The expected outcome would improve our basic understanding of how tornadoes form and lead to improvements in public forecasts and warnings.The investigators seek to advance our fundamental scientific knowledge of supercells and tornado formation through hypothesis-driven research. The proposed work will directly compare the attributes of tornadic and nontornadic supercells with a hierarchy of computer modeling techniques, including large ensembles of simulations and incorporating novel techniques to emulate environments that vary in time. The proposed work will also quantify the roles of environmental (external to the storm) vs. within-storm processes in supercell tornado formation. Finally, the proposed work will explain the precursors (prior to storm formation) responsible for the generation of favorable environmental conditions for tornadoes (specifically, the atmospheric wind profile very near the ground).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目的目的是提高我们对某些超级电池（旋转雷暴）为何产生龙卷风和其他在非常相似的大气条件下形成的龙卷风的理解。已知导致龙卷风形成（与失败）的特定过程链对环境和风暴本身的看似较小的细节非常敏感。 尽管我们的社区在近几十年来一直在预测龙卷风方面取得了重大进展，但我们尚未解释为什么龙卷风在看似有利的大气条件下经常出现如此频繁的形成。这项研究的具体目的是更好地了解龙卷风形成中的这些失败点。 没有这样的进展，可以预测和提出及时警告龙卷风（并避免误报）的能力，这不太可能进一步改善。该项目的主要科学家将涉及来自国家气象局的不同背景和天气预报员的学生。预期的结果将改善我们对龙卷风如何形成并改善公众预测和警告的基本理解。研究人员试图通过假设驱动的研究来促进我们对超级细胞和龙卷风形成的基本科学知识。拟议的工作将直接将龙卷风和非龙骨超级电池的属性与计算机建模技术的层次结构进行比较，包括大量的模拟集合，并结合新技术以模拟随时间变化的环境。拟议的工作还将量化环境（暴风雨外部）与超级龙卷风形成中的内部过程的作用。 最后，拟议的工作将解释负责产生龙卷风的有利环境条件的前体（特别是大气风概况）。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的智力和更广泛影响的评估来通过评估来获得支持的。

项目成果

Assessing the Comparative Effects of Storm-Relative Helicity Components within Right-Moving Supercell Environments

评估右移超级单体环境中风暴相关螺旋度分量的比较效果

• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-22-0253.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Goldacker, Nicholas A.;Parker, Matthew D.
• 通讯作者: Parker, Matthew D.

How Well Must Surface Vorticity Be Organized for Tornadogenesis?

龙卷风发生时表面涡量的组织必须如何？

• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-22-0195.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Parker, Matthew D.

Supercell Low-Level Mesocyclones: Origins of Inflow and Vorticity

超级单体低层中气旋：流入和涡度的起源

• DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-22-0269.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Monthly Weather Review
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Coffer, Brice E.;Parker, Matthew D.;Peters, John M.;Wade, Andrew R.
• 通讯作者: Wade, Andrew R.

Investigating the relationship between polarimetric radar signatures of hydrometeor size sorting and tornadic potential in simulated supercells

研究模拟超级单体中水凝物尺寸分类的偏振雷达特征与龙卷势之间的关系

• DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-22-0228.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Monthly Weather Review
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Loeffler, Scott D.;Kumjian, Matthew R.;Markowski, Paul M.;Coffer, Brice E.;Parker, Matthew D.
• 通讯作者: Parker, Matthew D.

An Analytic Formula for Entraining CAPE in Midlatitude Storm Environments

中纬度风暴环境中夹带 CAPE 的解析公式

• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-23-0003.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Peters, John M.;Chavas, Daniel R.;Su, Chun-Yian;Morrison, Hugh;Coffer, Brice E.
• 通讯作者: Coffer, Brice E.