Collaborative Research: Toward an integrated modeling framework for physics-based estimates of megathrust rupture potential

合作研究：建立基于物理的巨型逆冲破裂潜力估计的综合建模框架

• 批准号: 2121568
• 负责人: Alice-Agnes Gabriel
• 金额: $ 69.81万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego Scripps Inst of Oceanography
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2026-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2121568&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Toward; integrated; modeling

Subduction zones, where tectonic plates are recycled back into the mantle as in the Cascadia margin of the Pacific Northwest of the United States, host the largest earthquakes and give rise to significant hazard through ground shaking, landslides, and tsunami. This project seeks to better utilize existing geophysical and geological observations from important “natural laboratories” (Cascadia, Japan and New Zealand) by merging them more fully into new, comparative computer models of system behavior. Developing new modeling software and integrating constraints is expected to lead to new insights into the physics of subduction zone earthquakes, what observations imply for future earthquakes, and, importantly, which observations are needed to improve our understanding of subduction zone hazards and how to reduce uncertainties about system behavior. The project will involve international collaborations, leverage past investments, and will contribute to defining future, optimal observational strategies. An interdisciplinary workforce of students and post-docs will be trained through research and educational efforts, and all project software, tutorials and “cookbooks” for subduction earthquake modeling will be shared with the community, contributing to advancing computational geoscience approaches in general. A program for precollege, undergrad, and early grad students will be developed to emphasize computational geoscience as an avenue to enhance diversity in the geosciences.This collaborative effort seeks to integrate seismological, geodetic, experimental, and geological constraints for the Japan, New Zealand and Japan natural subduction zone laboratories into numerical models to advance our understanding of megathrust earthquakes. Forward models and a new numerical modeling framework for data assimilation will be deployed to get closer to versatile tools for data-driven, physics-based hazard assessment. The focus is on the evolution of fault stress and strength over a range of spatio-temporal scales, quantifying uncertainties and sensitivity to parameters. This will allow formulating best strategies for inferring relevant parameters from data in the presence of ambiguous physics, including optimal observational design within the ongoing SZ4D community effort. All code will be made publicly available along with cookbooks and tutorials, and a networked effort will establish new, quantitative links and leverage individual efforts greatly. FRES funding will support a growing community of solid Earth geodynamicists who want to deploy their models in a hazard and monitoring context. A focus will be on training and sharing material for interdisciplinary computational geoscience efforts, from undergraduate to post-doc and practitioner level. Project participants will develop sustainable pathways for participation and work to enhance representation and inclusion in the geosciences by providing new pathways of entry based on modeling and remote sensing to complement field-based approaches.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

俯冲带（如美国西北太平洋地区的卡斯卡迪亚边缘，构造板被回收回到地幔中），占据了最大的地震，并通过地面震动，滑坡和海啸引起了重大危害。该项目旨在通过将重要的“天然实验室”（卡斯卡迪亚，日本和新西兰）从现有的地球物理和地质观察中更好地利用现有的地质和地质观察，通过将它们更充分地融合到系统行为的新的，比较的计算机模型中。预计开发新的建模软件和集成约束将导致对俯冲区地震物理学的新见解，这意味着对未来地球地震的观察结果，以及重要的是，需要进行观察以提高我们对俯冲区危害的理解以及如何减少对系统行为的不确定性。该项目将涉及国际合作，利用过去的投资，并有助于定义未来的最佳观察策略。将通过研究和教育努力对学生和毕业后的跨学科劳动力进行培训，所有项目软件，教程和“食谱”用于俯冲地震建模，将与社区共享，从而有助于推进计算机地球科学方法。将开发针对预科，本科生和早期的学生的计划，以强调计算地球科学作为增强地球科学多样性的途径。这种协作努力旨在将地震学，地理，实验性和地质的限制整合到日本，纽西兰和日本的自然俯冲区实验室中，将地震，地理，实验性和地质的限制纳入了数值模型中。将部署用于数据同化的新型数值建模框架，以更接近用于数据驱动的基于物理的危害评估的多功能工具。重点是在一系列时空尺度上的断层应力和强度的演变，量化不确定性和对参数的敏感性。这将允许制定最佳策略，以在存在模棱两可的物理学的情况下从数据中推断出相关参数，包括正在进行的SZ4D社区工作中的最佳观察性设计。所有代码都将与食谱和教程一起公开提供，并且网络的工作将建立新的定量链接，并利用个人努力很好。弗雷斯（FRES）的资金将支持不断增长的固体地球动力学家社区，他们希望在危险和监视环境中部署自己的模型。将重点放在培训和共享材料跨学科计算地球科学工作的材料上，从本科到研究生和从业者层面。项目参与者将通过基于建模和远程敏感性为基于现场的方法提供新的入境途径来开发可持续的参与和工作，以增强地球科学的代表性和包容性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过使用该基金会的知识分子和宽广的影响来评估的支持，并被视为珍贵的支持。

项目成果

Instantaneous Physics‐Based Ground Motion Maps Using Reduced‐Order Modeling

• DOI: 10.1029/2023jb026975
• 发表时间: 2022-12
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
• 作者: J. Rekoske;A. Gabriel;David May

Comparison of methods for coupled earthquake and tsunami modelling

地震海啸耦合模拟方法比较

• DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggad053
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Geophysical Journal International
• 影响因子: 2.8
• 作者: Abrahams, Lauren S.;Krenz, Lukas;Dunham, Eric M.;Gabriel, Alice-Agnes;Saito, Tatsuhiko
• 通讯作者: Saito, Tatsuhiko

An efficient partial-differential-equation-based method to compute pressure boundary conditions in regional geodynamic models

一种基于偏微分方程的有效计算区域地球动力学模型中压力边界条件的方法

• DOI: 10.5194/se-13-1107-2022
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Solid Earth
• 影响因子: 3.4
• 作者: Jourdon, Anthony;May, Dave A.
• 通讯作者: May, Dave A.

Community‐Driven Code Comparisons for Three‐Dimensional Dynamic Modeling of Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip

• DOI: 10.1029/2021jb023519
• 发表时间: 2021-11
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
• 作者: Junle Jiang;B. Erickson;Valère Lambert;J. Ampuero;R. Ando;S. Barbot;C. Cattania;Luca Dal Zilio;B. Duan;E. Dunham;A. Gabriel;N. Lapusta;Duo Li;Meng Li;Dunyu Liu;Yajing Liu;S. Ozawa;C. Pranger;Y. van Dinther

How Does Thermal Pressurization of Pore Fluids Affect 3D Strike-Slip Earthquake Dynamics and Ground Motions?

孔隙流体的热加压如何影响 3D 走滑地震动力学和地面运动？

• DOI: 10.1785/0120220205
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
• 影响因子: 3
• 作者: Vyas, Jagdish Chandra;Gabriel, Alice-Agnes;Ulrich, Thomas;Mai, Paul Martin;Ampuero, Jean-Paul
• 通讯作者: Ampuero, Jean-Paul