Collaborative Research: GCR: Co-Defining Climate Refugia to Inform the Management of Mountain Headwater Systems

合作研究：GCR：共同定义气候保护区，为山地水源系统的管理提供信息

• 批准号: 2120828
• 负责人: Katharine Kelsey
• 金额: $ 44.49万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Denver-Downtown Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-10-01 至 2026-09-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2120828&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; GCR; Co; Defining

Population growth and climate change increasingly stress public lands that provide key ecosystem services such as clean water, habitat for plants and animals, and income via tourism and natural resources. To ensure that services remain sustainable, land managers allocate limited resources to alleviate evolving stressors between society and the environment; however, land management decisions are challenged by scientific limitations and inadequate communication among scientists, decision-makers, and the public. This project aims to inform land management decisions by identifying regions that provide stable ecosystem services despite climate change and other human-caused disturbance. The project team – representing climate science, geology, hydrology, social science, and ecology – includes students from a Hispanic-Serving Institution and community colleges. The team will work with decision-makers to develop measurement and prediction technologies to estimate where, how, and when ecosystems may experience irreversible change this century. The project will establish a transferrable method to map at-risk and sustainable ecosystem services using both science and public priorities to inform land management decisions in the context of a changing climate. The concept of refugia – the mappable landscape units that are buffered from contemporary climate change – is significant to many population segments that value and/or study ecosystem services at the urban-wildland interface. However, no unified framework exists in which to contribute new data or ideas, and there are technical barriers to projecting future conditions, including climate change and other societal pressures. This project will develop novel observations of water, energy and vegetation to improve a next-generation terrestrial model to co-produce refugia estimates through collaboration among land managers, citizens, and cross-disciplinary scientists. It will undertake the complex task of combining public values, land manager input, and an ensemble of climate change projections to co-define refugia characteristics and predict the location and persistence of refugia under climate change and other anthropogenic forcings. The research will produce three specific advances: (1) a convergent blueprint for integrating and defining the value of ecosystem services that are relevant to the public, managers, and scientists as a means to characterize refugia, (2) improved process-based model structure to predict the dynamics, thresholds, and boundaries of future refugia, and (3) a novel modeling framework to separate sources of uncertainty in projections of ecosystem change.This award is co-funded by the Hydrologic Sciences program.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

人口增长和气候变化越来越强调公共土地，提供关键的生态系统服务，例如清洁水，动植物的栖息地以及通过旅游和自然资源收入。为了确保服务保持可持续性，土地管理者分配有限的资源来减轻社会与环境之间不断发展的压力；但是，土地管理决策受到科学局限性的挑战，科学家，决策者和公众之间的沟通不足。该项目旨在通过确定提供稳定的生态系统服务目的地气候变化和其他人为造成的灾难的地区来为土地管理决策提供信息。代表气候科学，地质，水文学，社会科学和生态学的项目团队包括来自西班牙裔服务机构和社区学院的学生。该团队将与决策者合作开发测量和预测技术，以估算本世纪生态系统的何处，如何以及何时可能会发生不可逆的变化。该项目将建立一种转移的方法，使用科学和公众优先事项绘制高风险和可持续生态系统服务，以在不断变化的气候下为土地管理决策提供信息。 Refugia的概念 - 从当代气候变化中缓冲的可映射景观单元 - 对于许多在城市野生兰州界面上重视和/或研究生态系统服务的人口领域都很重要。但是，尚无统一框架来贡献新的数据或想法，并且在预测未来条件的技术障碍中，包括气候变化和其他社会压力。该项目将通过土地管理者，公民和跨学科科学家之间的合作来发展水，能源和植被的新发现，以改善下一代陆地模型，以共同生产避难所的估计。它将承担结合公共价值观，土地经理投入以及气候变化项目的复杂任务，以共同定义避难所特征，并预测在气候变化和其他人为强迫下，避难所的位置和持久性。这项研究将产生三个具体的进步：（1）与公众，经理和科学家相关的生态系统服务的价值和定义的收敛蓝图，作为表征避难所的表征的手段，（2）改进基于过程的模型结构，以预测动态，阈值，阈值，阈值和范围的奖励，以未来的灌注和范围的范围（3）的范围，（3）该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响标准通过评估来表示支持。