Large-Scale CoPe: The Cascadia Coastlines and People Hazards Research Hub

大规模 CoPe：卡斯卡迪亚海岸线和人类危害研究中心

• 批准号: 2103713
• 负责人: Peter Ruggiero
• 金额: $ 1889.61万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Cooperative Agreement
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-08-01 至 2026-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2103713&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Large; Scale; CoPe; Cascadia; Coastlines

In response to the direct call by Pacific Northwest coastal communities for “a coordinated research agenda among universities, governmental agencies, NGOs, and others” to help them achieve resilience, the Cascadia Coastlines and Peoples Hazards Research Hub (Cascadia CoPes hub) will inform and enable integrated hazard assessment, mitigation, and adaptation—including comprehensive planning, policy making, and engineering—through targeted scientific advances in collaboration with communities. Pacific Northwest coastlines are at risk of great subduction earthquakes from the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), which extends more than 1000 km from Cape Mendocino in California through Oregon and Washington to Vancouver Island, Canada. Cascadia coastlines and peoples face acute shaking, subsidence, and tsunami inundation from a CSZ event, landslide and erosion risks aggravated by climate-driven intensifying atmospheric rivers, changing storminess patterns and sea level rise, as well as crustal faulting in the Salish Sea. Cascadia coastal communities also have rich and diverse cultural, social and governance histories, traditional and local ecological knowledge (TEK/LEK), and identities, values, and economies tied to their coastal locations and ecosystems. These distinguishing features position the Cascadia CoPes hub to transform understanding of the temporal pacing and interactions of acute and chronic coastal changes. The Cascadia CoPes hub will increase coastal community adaptive capacity, through community engagement and co-production, and by training a new generation of coastal hazards scientists and leaders from currently underrepresented communities in the region.With inextricably linked tectonic and climate-driven coastal hazards, Cascadia provides a natural laboratory for the study of local coastal changes spanning time scales from minutes to millennia, reflecting complex and locally-specific layering of impacts from chronic and acute hazards. For example, long-term relative sea level rise (RSLR) is governed here by tectonic motion, with the highest west coast rates of RSLR found at the southern end of Cascadia, while RSLR is muted along some stretches of the Olympic Peninsula in the north by uplift. The Cascadia CoPes hub is designed to test two overarching hypotheses: (1) fundamental advances in convergent coastal hazard sciences will transform understanding of the risks coastal communities face and (2) an inclusive, co-produced approach to advancing hazard assessment and mitigation will increase coastal communities’ adaptive capacity and broaden participation in achieving equitable and just disaster risk reduction. With collaboratories representing the diversity of Cascadia coastlines and peoples, the project will: (a) identify likely sources of earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and land-level change, integrate new observations and develop coupled event simulations based on novel probabilistic tectonic multi-hazard risk models; (b) assess climate-driven compound fluvial-coastal flooding and how these drive coastal morphology changes and ecosystems, to quantify probabilistic exposure to coastal hazards under present and future conditions; (c) assess risk mitigation and dynamic adaptation strategies, including use of natural and nature-based features, (d) identify and test multi-use and asset-focused adaptation strategies for disaster risk reduction in processes that incorporate TEK/LEK, (e) study the inclusiveness of coastal governance structures for hazards resilience and science-informed hazards response, and (f) explore the conceptual linkages and communications challenges across (a-e).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

为了响应太平洋西北沿海社区“在大学、政府机构、非政府组织和其他机构之间制定协调一致的研究议程”以帮助他们实现抵御能力的直接呼吁，卡斯卡迪亚海岸线和人民危害研究中心（卡斯卡迪亚 CoPes 中心）将提供信息和通过与面临来自卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带 (CSZ) 的大俯冲地震风险的社区合作，通过有针对性的科学进步，实现综合灾害评估、缓解和适应，包括综合规划、政策制定和工程。从加利福尼亚州门多西诺角经俄勒冈州和华盛顿州延伸到加拿大温哥华岛的卡斯卡迪亚海岸线超过 1000 公里，CSZ 事件导致人们面临剧烈的震动、下沉和海啸淹没，气候驱动的大气层加剧加剧了山体滑坡和侵蚀风险。河流、不断变化的暴风雨模式和海平面上升以及萨利希海沿海社区的地壳断层也拥有丰富多样的文化、社会和治理历史、传统和历史。当地生态知识（TEK/LEK）以及与其沿海位置和生态系统相关的身份、价值观和经济，这些显着特征使卡斯卡迪亚 CoPes 中心能够转变对卡斯卡迪亚沿海急性和慢性变化的时间节奏和相互作用的理解。 CoPes 中心将通过社区参与和共同生产，以及培训来自该地区目前代表性不足的社区的新一代沿海灾害科学家和领导人，提高沿海社区的适应能力。卡斯卡迪亚为研究气候驱动的沿海灾害提供了一个天然的实验室，用于研究从几分钟到几千年的时间尺度的当地沿海变化，反映了慢性和急性灾害影响的复杂和当地特定的分层，例如长期相对海平面。地壳上升（RSLR）在这里受构造运动控制，在卡斯卡迪亚南端发现西海岸的RSLR速率最高，而在卡斯卡迪亚北部的奥林匹克半岛的一些地区，RSLR则因隆升而减弱。 CoPes 中心旨在检验两个总体假设：(1) 融合沿海灾害科学的根本性进步将改变对沿海社区所面临风险的理解；(2) 推进灾害评估和缓解的包容性、共同制定的方法将增加沿海社区与代表卡斯卡迪亚海岸线和人民多样性的合作者一起，该项目将：(a) 确定地震、海啸、山体滑坡和土地平面的可能来源。变化，整合新的观测结果，并基于新颖的概率构造多灾害风险模型开发耦合事件模拟；(b) 评估气候驱动的复合河流-沿海洪水及其如何驱动沿海形态变化和生态系统，以量化沿海灾害的概率暴露在当前和未来的条件下；(c) 评估风险缓解和动态适应战略，包括利用自然和基于自然的特征，(d) 确定并测试多用途和以资产为重点的减少灾害风险适应战略，其中包括TEK/LEK，(e) 研究沿海治理结构对灾害复原力和科学信息灾害响应的包容性，(f) 探索 (a-e) 之间的概念联系和沟通挑战。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并被视为值得通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

项目成果

Evacuation behaviors in tsunami drills

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05208-y
• 发表时间: 2022-02-02
• 期刊: NATURAL HAZARDS
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Chen, Chen;Mostafizi, Alireza;Cramer, Lori
• 通讯作者: Cramer, Lori

Intersectionality as a Forward-Thinking Approach in Disaster Research

交叉性作为灾害研究的前瞻性方法

• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Oxford Research Forum journal
• 作者: Vickery, J.;Jean, C.;Hall, C.
• 通讯作者: Hall, C.

ShakeAlert Baseline Survey: Earthquake and earthquake early warning perceptions and preparedness on the U.S. West Coast

ShakeAlert 基线调查：美国西海岸的地震和地震早期预警认知和准备情况

• DOI: 10.17603/ds2-3th7-d512
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Designsafe-CI
• 作者: Bostrom, Ann;Becker, Julia
• 通讯作者: Becker, Julia

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Morphodynamics and Riverine Flooding in an Idealized Estuary

• DOI: 10.1029/2022wr032544
• 发表时间: 2022-12
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Wuming Ni;J. Morgan;A. Horner‐Devine;Nirnimesh Kumar;S. Ahrendt

An integrative agent‐based vertical evacuation risk assessment model for near‐field tsunami hazards

基于综合代理的近场海啸灾害垂直疏散风险评估模型

• DOI: 10.1111/risa.13881
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Risk Analysis
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Chen, Chen;Mostafizi, Alireza;Wang, Haizhong;Cox, Dan;Chand, Cadell
• 通讯作者: Chand, Cadell