Collaborative Research: An integrated model-proxy approach to understanding Western US hydroclimate change since the last glacial period

合作研究：了解自末次冰期以来美国西部水文气候变化的综合模型代理方法

基本信息

批准号：
2102853
负责人：
Juan Lora
金额：
$ 4.13万
依托单位：
Yale University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-07-01 至 2024-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2102853&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research integrated model proxy

项目摘要

Understanding what processes drive changes in rainfall along the U.S. West Coast is essential for predicting future water availability in this densely populated and agriculturally productive part of the country. However, given the short duration of direct meteorological observations (~100 years), it is beneficial to reconstruct past changes in rainfall over longer time periods (i.e., thousands of years) in order to uncover the potential sensitivity of water resources in the Western U.S to future climate change. This research project combines measurements of ancient groundwater and state-of-the-art climate model experiments to both quantify and understand the dynamical drivers of hydrological change along the American West Coast during the last ice age (i.e., the Last Glacial Maximum or LGM, ~25,000 years ago). This project also includes a comprehensive public outreach component, involving the creation of a museum exhibit for display at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). In collaboration with the University of Colorado Boulder, the researchers will lead an interdisciplinary course for students to design and prototype a museum exhibit that brings to life the radically different atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns present during the LGM.The first research component of this project involves a field campaign to collect groundwater samples from a network of wells within the Columbia Plateau Aquifer system in northeastern Oregon and southeastern Washington, which will provide a much-needed quantitative constraint on LGM hydroclimate in the data-poor Pacific Northwest. A new analytical technique for high-precision measurements of dissolved noble gas concentrations and Krypton and Xenon isotope ratios within the groundwater will be employed to reconstruct past temperature and regional water table depth. The second research component of the project involves climate model experiments using NCAR’s Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1) to build upon existing fully equilibrated climate simulations to study the influence of different LGM boundary conditions (ice sheet albedo/topography, greenhouse gases, orbital forcing, etc) on North Pacific atmospheric circulation and the intensity, variability, and landfalling orientation of moisture-rich storms known as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The project also includes a series of time-slice experiments, simulating both deglacial and glacial conditions, to examine the transient response of ARs and western North American hydroclimate to shrinking and growing continental ice sheets. Finally, detailed comparisons will be made between these model simulations and the proxy reconstructions of Pacific Northwest water table depths.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

了解哪些过程驱动美国西海岸降雨的变化对于预测该国不良和算术产品的一部分的未来水的供应至关重要。但是，鉴于直接气象观察的持续时间很短（〜100年），重建较长时间（即数千年）的过去降雨变化是有益的，以便揭示美国西部水资源对未来气候变化的潜在敏感性。该研究项目结合了古代地下水和最先进的攀岩模型实验的测量，以量化和理解上一个冰河时代（即最后的冰川最大值或LGM，〜25,000年前）在美国西海岸的动态变化驱动因素。该项目还包括一个全面的公共外展部分，涉及在国家大气研究中心（NCAR）展出博物馆展览。 In collaboration with the University of Colorado Boulder, the researchers will lead an interdisciplinary course for students to design and prototype a museum exhibit that brings to life the radically different atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns present during the LGM.The first research component of this project involves a field campaign to collect groundwater samples from a network of wells within the Columbia Plateau Aquifer system in Northeastern Oregon and Southeastern Washington, which will provide a在数据贫乏的西北太平洋地区对LGM氢化气候的急需定量限制。一种新的分析技术，用于用于溶解的昂贵气体浓度以及地下水中的K k和XENON同位素比的高精度测量，以重建过去的温度和区域地下水位深度。该项目的第二个研究组成部分涉及使用NCAR的社区地球系统模型1.2（CESM1）进行气候模型实验，以研究现有的完全等效的气候模拟来研究不同的LGM边界条件的影响（冰板反击/地形/地形/地形，温室气体，轨道，轨道强迫等）对北部太平洋循环和多变量的潮流，以及降级的潮流，降级量的潮气，并在范围内降落量。（ars）。该项目还包括一系列的时片实验，模拟了冰川冰期和冰川条件，以检查ARS和北美西部氢化气候对缩小和生长连续冰盖的瞬时响应。最后，将在这些模型模拟与太平洋西北地下水位深度的代理重建之间进行详细的比较。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估标准来评估值得支持。