Collaborative Research: An integrated model-proxy approach to understanding Western US hydroclimate change since the last glacial period

合作研究：了解自末次冰期以来美国西部水文气候变化的综合模型代理方法

基本信息

批准号：
2102853
负责人：
Juan Lora
金额：
$ 4.13万
依托单位：
Yale University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-07-01 至 2024-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2102853&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research integrated model proxy

项目摘要

Understanding what processes drive changes in rainfall along the U.S. West Coast is essential for predicting future water availability in this densely populated and agriculturally productive part of the country. However, given the short duration of direct meteorological observations (~100 years), it is beneficial to reconstruct past changes in rainfall over longer time periods (i.e., thousands of years) in order to uncover the potential sensitivity of water resources in the Western U.S to future climate change. This research project combines measurements of ancient groundwater and state-of-the-art climate model experiments to both quantify and understand the dynamical drivers of hydrological change along the American West Coast during the last ice age (i.e., the Last Glacial Maximum or LGM, ~25,000 years ago). This project also includes a comprehensive public outreach component, involving the creation of a museum exhibit for display at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). In collaboration with the University of Colorado Boulder, the researchers will lead an interdisciplinary course for students to design and prototype a museum exhibit that brings to life the radically different atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns present during the LGM.The first research component of this project involves a field campaign to collect groundwater samples from a network of wells within the Columbia Plateau Aquifer system in northeastern Oregon and southeastern Washington, which will provide a much-needed quantitative constraint on LGM hydroclimate in the data-poor Pacific Northwest. A new analytical technique for high-precision measurements of dissolved noble gas concentrations and Krypton and Xenon isotope ratios within the groundwater will be employed to reconstruct past temperature and regional water table depth. The second research component of the project involves climate model experiments using NCAR’s Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1) to build upon existing fully equilibrated climate simulations to study the influence of different LGM boundary conditions (ice sheet albedo/topography, greenhouse gases, orbital forcing, etc) on North Pacific atmospheric circulation and the intensity, variability, and landfalling orientation of moisture-rich storms known as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The project also includes a series of time-slice experiments, simulating both deglacial and glacial conditions, to examine the transient response of ARs and western North American hydroclimate to shrinking and growing continental ice sheets. Finally, detailed comparisons will be made between these model simulations and the proxy reconstructions of Pacific Northwest water table depths.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

了解U.ST的降雨过程对于预测未来的水的供应至关重要，我提出了该国的农业，这是有益的。研究项目结合了古代和最新状态的测量 - 既有的气候模型经验，又可以理解上次美国西海岸的水文学变化的动力学驱动力（即最后的冰川最大值或最高冰川的最大程度。 LGM，大约25，000年前）。博物馆对LG的彻底循环和降雨进行了灌输。LGM。在贫困的西北地区，对LGM的氢化气候的限制很大。使用NCAR的社区地球系统模型1.2 CESM1）建立在平衡的固化的固化的气候研究的基础上，不同的LGM边界condito/topo图形，温室气体，轨道强迫等对北太平洋大气循环，强度和登陆的影响该项目的风暴（ARS）的方向包括一系列的时间片实验，模拟了冰川冰川和冰川条件，以检查ARS和西美氢化物的跨性别在这些模型Simadel Simudel Simadel t之间，有一段时间的lects nsf'Statutory任务，并通过使用Toundation的知识分子优点Meriter的评估来评估值得支持。